Sullivan County Real Estate

Latest Current Market Conditions Report Posted

Yup, I know my May Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate is coming out pretty late this month. But I did get it up under the wire, before the calendar flips over to June. But the reason I'm late this month is part of the story. I've been crazy busy with buyers since the beginning of May, and overall that's good news. And they're not just coming up from the city and kicking tires, but making offers and doing deals.

But the sales data for the latest three month period in my Current Market Conditions report doesn't reflect this pickup. In fact, the numbers are pretty dismal, with sales volume and prices both sharply down from last year. But the closed sales numbers reflect winter buying behavior, and the winter here was very, very slow. It will be very interesting to track closed sales over the next three months, to see how this late spring activity pick up affects the numbers in July and August.

So check out the latest Market Conditions Report and drop on back here to leave your comments on what you see happening in the Sullivan County real estate market.

Too Late to Buy for Summer?

A few years ago, buyers looking for houses to buy for the summer generally shopped from January through March, cut a deal and closed sometime in May, in time to be in the house by Memorial Day. The pattern has changed, with buyers shopping later, in April and May, but with the expectation of having the house for most of the summer.

When buyers are using mortgage financing (not paying cash) for a house, the time from accepted offer to closing here is generally about 60 days, if there aren't any glitches and everything moves smoothly. Most buyers prefer to proceed sequentially --- offer -> contract -> inspection -> mortgage and appraisal -> title and survey -> closing. That minimizes a buyer's out of pocket risk for later stage expenses if the deal 'fails' at an earlier point. For example, if the house doesn't appraise or get lender underwriting approval for whatever reason, the buyer hasn't already shelled out for title review and a survey. It is possible to compress the 60 days by a few weeks if buyers do the steps in parallel, but that increases out of pocket risk.

Adding to the predictability about a closing date are the 'unknowns'. It can take anywhere from one to three weeks to get full executed contracts once an offer is accepted. Unlike New Jersey, Pennsylvania or areas in New York further upstate, in this part of New York we don't use standard contract forms that are filled out by Realtors. In areas that use standard contract forms, buyers and sellers are generally bound with a fully executed contract within three days of an accepted offer. Here, just like areas further south to New York City and out to Long Island, contracts are prepared by the seller's attorney, and revised by the buyer's attorney (and often the two attorneys go back and forth a number of times) before being sent to the buyer and then the seller for execution.

Then there's the mortgage. It seems like lenders are taking longer and longer to underwrite loans and issue mortgage commitments. Even local lenders are taking two to three weeks to give loan approval once they've received the appraisal. The big money center banks can take even longer, with their incessant and repeated requests for more and more documentation. Occasionally a loan approval will come through in one to two weeks, but that's the rare exception these days. If buyers want to fast track a mortgage, they can use a "portfolio lender" like First National Bank of Jeffersonville, but at higher interest rates.

And then there are the "glitches". If significant issues with the house are identified during the inspection, it can take a week or more to get repair estimates before an adjustment can be negotiated. When title work and survey are ordered, there are frequently items that need to be cleared up — everything from driveway encroachments, lack of road maintenance agreements on private roads, to unrecorded settlements of old mortgages. The most common glitch? The owner pulled a building permit at some point to finish a basement, extend a deck or build an addition, but never closed out the permit. So now the building inspector has to come out and sign off on the work to close out the permit. Add about a week.

Once a sale is cleared to close, coordinating the schedules for all the necessary parties can be a challenge. Who has to be at the closing table? Three attorneys (buyer's, seller's and the bank), the title company and the buyers (and most likely the sellers, although they don't have to be there.)

Add it all up, and you can see that getting to a closing just takes time. When I estimate a 60 day time to close, I'm being realistic, but buyers often think it should be able to be done much quicker in the internet age. Sure, I could say it can close in 30 days, and when the process takes longer, just shrug my shoulders. But it isn't in anyone's interest to set an unrealistic expectation. If all the stars are aligned just perfectly and it closes earlier, that's great. But at this point, as the calendar turns to June, the best case scenario is a late July or early August closing for buyers using mortgage financing, and an early to mid July closing for cash buyers.

A Great Start to Summer

Summer is off to a big start, if the crowds at the Callicoon Farmers Market this morning are any indication. I can't remember ever seeing such a large crowd, or having to park two blocks away to do my weekly locally grown food shopping. The market runs from 11 to 2PM on Sundays, and I got there about 12:15. Much to my surprise, a lot of the farm vendors were close to sold out of vegetables, and it was slim pickings as well at the meat, egg and cheese purveyors. I talked to a few friends who have stands, and they said people were already looking to shop at 10AM when they were just setting up.

It was great to see so many people around, and the stunningly beautiful weather only added to the really festive atmosphere. Now, let's hope for a couple of weeks of really nice weather to warm up the lakes and ponds for swimming, and another great Catskills summer will be in full swing!

Lots of Activity

"Very busy" isn't a phrase I've used a lot over the past couple of years, but it's a phrase I would certainlyuse to describe the last few weeks. Since the beginning of May, I've written four offers — two have come together into deals, the other two are in negotiation. What's particularly noteworthy is that 3 of these 4 buyers are brand new to the market, and made an offer on a house they saw on their first trip up. I haven't seen that happen in a number of years.

Last weekend I had five appointments, and went straight through on Saturday and Sunday from 10 in the morning until 7 in the evening. One client emailed me three houses they wanted to see this weekend, and when I called to arrange to show them, I learned all three had accepted offers on them. Another client from earlier this year who was looking for a house on a motorboat lake cycled back to check on some houses they'd seen. Both of the houses they were interested in had been on the market for more than a year — and both went into deals in the past few weeks.

So what's happening? I've heard a similar story from a number of buyers over the past month — that mortgage interest rates are appealingly low, and that they believe that the market has hit bottom. It adds up to the perception that now is a good time to buy a vacation home.

This revived interest, though, isn't across the board. The buyers I've seen jumping back into the market are largely focussed on moderate range properties under $250,000, with lakefront interest pushing up into the mid to upper $300s. I'm not seeing a lot of interest much above those levels.

While there's more buyer activity, sellers shouldn't take this as a sign to get cocky about prices. From what I've seen, the houses that are moving are very attractively priced. Similar houses at higher prices aren't moving. And most buyers have very firm price ceilings. If their budget is $250,000, it's very unlikely they're going to $300,000 or above — even if they love the house. Price ranges are firming up for certain types of houses. For example, the range for 2BR/1BA lakefront cottages seems to be $225,000 to $275,000, depending on the lake and setting. It's not $325,000, and a seller pricing their 2BR lakefront "gem" above $300,000 will probably not get much interest.

Bethel Third Sullivan Town To Ban Fracking

In late April, the Town of Bethel passed an ordinance to ban gas drilling using hydrofracking, joining Tusten and Lumberland, which passed similar bans earlier this year. The Town of Highland is currently considering a similar ban. (In a related development, on April 26th the Sullivan County legislature unanimously passed a resolution requesting New York state to impose a moratorium on hydrofracking.)

One consequence of these bans is that they can quell unease among home buyers who may be nervous about fracking — even though the likelihood of drilling occurring anywhere in Sullivan has greatly diminished due to regulatory, economic and geological issues. (Some geologists believe that the gas under most of Sullivan is 'cooked', making it less desireable to extract; natural gas prices have tanked, resulting in exploration companies sharply curtaining new drills; and New York state and the Delaware River Basin Commission still haven't issued regulations to permit drilling in this area.) I expect that soon Realtors will pick up that a location in a no-frack town is a selling feature, particularly for second home buyers, and include that in listings. (I've already seen it in one listing in Bethel.) Towns well outside of the possible drilling corridor (Fallsburg, Mamakating, Forestburgh and even Thompson) may want to consider fracking bans to support their real estate markets.

WJFF Foodstock This Saturday, May 5th

One of the most popular spring events in Sullivan County is happening this coming Saturday, May 5th. Foodstock, a benefit for WJFF Community Radio (90.5fm) brings together 60 local food and wine producers for an afternoon of sampling and tasting. It takes place from 11AM to 3PM in the tennis building at the Villa Roma Resort, between Calicoon and Jeffersonville.

Tickets purchased in advance are $20 with wine, $15 without. At the door, $25 with wine, $20 without. Call WJFF at 845-482-4141 to purchase tickets in advance. This is a hugely popular fun event, so I'd suggest buying your tickets in advance and getting there earlier rather than later.

Current Market Conditions Report Posted with March Data

My latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate is up with sales data through March, 2012. For the first quarter of 2012, sales volume was down 16% from the previous year, but sales prices (both median and average) held steady from the same period a year earlier. Interest and demand among buyers seems largely focussed on the low to moderate ranges of the market — with the upper end still very sluggish.

Please check out the latest Market Conditions Report and then drop on back here to leave your thoughts on what you see happening in Sullivan County real estate.

2nd Public Access to Toronto Reservoir Reopened

It seems that the long running dispute over the second public access point to Toronto Reservoir (at the southern end of the reservoir, near the dam, reached from an easement road at the end of Pine Grove Road) may be finally over. In 2006, the developer of the Chapin Estate, which surrounds much of the reservoir, blocked the access road with large boulders, seting off a court disute between Mirant (then owner of the reservoir) and later Alliance Energy (the current owner of the reservoir) and the developers of Chapin. Getting that second access point opened was important for Alliance Energy because under the terms of the license from FERC (the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) to operate the reservoir, they're required to maintain two public access points. For a couple of years, Alliance has been in a deal to sell their reservoir holdings (including Toronto and Swinging Bridge) to Eagle Creek Companies. FERC has refused to transfer to the license until the second access point is reopened, which is a requirement of the license, so the sale has been stalled.

Last month, a state supreme court judge ruled in favor of Alliance. On March 27th, excavators hired by Alliance removed the large boulders that Woodstone put in place in 2006 to block the road, reopening the access and hopefully putting an end to this long running saga. (Click here for the River Reporter story.)

I've been to this access point a number of times over the years, and it's a particularly pretty spot on Toronto Reservoir. You can get to it by going to the end of Pine Grove Road (which runs through Smallwood) and making a right on a dirt road before you get to the gates for the Swinging Bridge part of the Chapin Estate. While Toronto is a motorboat lake, note that the launching of motorboats is not permitted at this southern access point. Motorboat launchig is only permitted at the northern access point at the end of Moscoe Road. You can, however, launch a kayak or canoe from this southern access.

New Satellite Internet Option, I Just Switched

I live on a beautiful road in the Beechwoods, with one downside. There's no cable or DSL service to my house for high speed internet access. Satellite and Verizon 3G wireless are my only 'high speed' options. I've had Hughesnet (formerly Direcway) as my satellite internet provider, backed up more recently with a Verizon 3G MiFi hotspot. Hughesnet has been adequate, but still pales to wired cable or DSL connections. The speed, at best, is 1.2Mb to 1.5Mb down, and often far less.

So I was excited when ViaSat (aka Wildblue) launched a new satellite service, Exede, touting download speeds up to 12Mb and uploads as high as 3Mb. Could it really deliver? Well, today I switched.

The installer just left, and I have to say I'm pretty impressed. I ran a testmy.net speed test, and got 10Mb down and 730 up. He said that the firmware will be updating for the next few hours, and speeds will improve, particularly on the upload side.

I just joined a Skype group video call with 2 friends, and it worked. That would have been impossible with Hughesnet, where even a single one-on-one Skype video connection is iffy. Exede, just like Hughesnet, does have the time lag that's a given with satellite internet connections, so Skype isn't quite 'in sync'. But it felt about the same lag as when I Skype from my cable connection in the city to a friend in New Zealand or Peru.

With speeds in the 10Mb/sec download range, it's also possible to download a Netflix movie or tv episode from iTunes in a reasonable amount of time. Exede, like Hughesnet, does have download limits, but they're structured differently than HUghes. With Exede, the plan you buy has a monthly download allotment ($50 for 7.5Gb, $80 for 15 Gb and $130 for 25Gb). With Hughesnet, you get a daily allotment (on their $80 per month plan, you get 350Mb per day, but there's a cap-free period from 2AM to 5AM daily, and you can roll the unused amount from one day to the next day). So with Hughes, there really isn't a good option to download a full length movie within your cap limits unless you do it in the middle of the night.

Exede's monthly bucket (versus Hughes' daily bucket) probably works better for people who split their time between the city and country, too — because when you're in the city, you're not using up your allotment.

Are there downsides to Exede? Sure. There are those caps, which can be irksome if you're a heavy video downloader and are used to the 'all you can eat' buffet of cable or Fios. There is the time lag inherent in satellite, which impacts online gaming and makes VPN (virtual private network) and virutal desktop connections sluggish. Satellite internet connections can be hampered by bad weather, particularly heavy rain (known as 'rain fade'). You also need to have a clear line-of-sight path to the satellite in the southern sky from the location where the dish is installed, and the Exede installer said that the Exede satellite (Via-Sat1) is a little further down in the sky than the Hughes satellites.

Overall, though, it looks like Exede is a big improvement over Hughes. I'll be looking closely to see what happens with speeds during peak hours, and also as Exede brings on more subscribers who are sharing the satellite bandwirth.

If you're thinking of installing Exede, I strongly recommend that you go through the local distributor, Cronk's Electronics in Liberty, 845-795-3231 rather than through the Exede website. The prices for installation and service are the same, the folks at Cronk's are great. I've used them for my satellite tv and internet for years, and they're always responsive and show up on time.

New Concord Plan Unveiled, Legislature Acts on Casinos

It was a heady couple of weeks for casino boosters here in Sullivan. First, Empire Resorts and Entertainment Property Trust (EPT), the owner of the lion's share of the former Concord Hotel site in Kiamesha Lake, unveiled their plans for redevelopment of the site for Town of Thompson officials. (Press release including a link to the full size site plan.) The plan is ambitious, and includes hotel buildouts in multiple phases, a water park, golf, retail and dining, along with moving the Monticello Raceway (and racino) ton the Concord site. Empire and EPT insist that moving ahead on the plan is not dependent on approval of casino gambling, and that they plan to break ground by the end of the year.

And then, early Thursday morning, state legislators voted on the first step necessary to permit casino gambling in New York state. Non-Indian casino gaming in New York requires approval by voters in a referendum, and to put that referendum on the ballot requires approval by two subsequent sessions of the legislature. This was the first approval. The second vote by the legislature will come next year in 2013, and a referendum could follow in late 2013.

The bill would permit up to 7 casinos in the state, with no specific areas designated (although Gov. Cuomo insists that a casino in Manhattan is off the table.) It's widely expected that the Catskills will get two, and possibly three, of those slots. Downstate, Aqueduct and Yonkers will probably battle it out. Further upstate, Saratoga and Niagara Falls are likely good bets.

But like all casino dreams, we'll just have to wait and see.

Current Market Conditions Report Posted with February Data

I just posted my latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate with sales data through February 2012. Sort of a mixed picture this month, with sales volume down about 5% over the same period last year, while prices are showing an overall upward trend (although down from January, due to a couple of $1M+ sales timing out of the data.) On the activity front, it's been a lackluster midwinter again, for the third year in a row. A big mid winter surge was common during the boom years, with bonus laden buyers out shopping for vacation homes. But again this year, I'm not seeing it.

Please check out the latest Market Conditions Report and then drop on back here to share your thoughts on what's happening in the Sullivan County real estate market.

Weekend of Chamber Music Benefit in Brooklyn, March 24th

The "Weekend of Chamber Music" is a very popular music event here in Sullivan County every July. (This will be its 19th season.) But another, and less known, contribution that WCM makes to Sullivan County is its "Artist Coaching Project", where WCM pairs performing artists with local school music teachers here in Sullivan to provide coaching for their bands, orchestras and chamber music ensembles, as well as individual music lessons. It's a very worthy endeavor, particularly in these tough economic times when arts in education is continually threatened with budget cuts.

On Saturday, March 24th, WCM will be holding its Gala Spring Benefit in Brooklyn to benefit the Artist Coaching Project. The benefit, which starts at 4PM and costs $75, is being held in a private apartment across from the Brooklyn Museum, and includes a light supper. Check out the WCM website for more information. If you haven't been around Sullivan County over the winter, and are looking forward to the arrival of spring (and the reopening of your house), this can be a great way to jump start your Sullivan summer.

Another Blow to Gas Drilling in Sullivan County?

First, there were the statements by geologists last year that the geology of the Marcellus underlying most of Sullivan County may not be conducive to economic gas extraction, a position echoed by industry spokespeople last December. (Article). Then came the surprising cancellation of a vote in November by the Delaware River Basin Commission on proposed regulations for drilling within the Delaware River Basin (which includes much of Sullivan County, NY.) (Article) While the internal politics of that vote cancellation have not been made public, it was generally viewed as confirming that the DRBC did not have the 3 (of 5) votes necessary to pass the regulations.

Now, New York City's Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has weighed in with a request to the New York State DEC to significantly increase the no-drill watershed buffer areas in Sullivan to include wide areas around watershed infrastructure that runs through Sullivan County. This would involve a 7 mile "Infrastructure Enhanced Protection Zone" around both the West Delaware tunnel (leading from the Cannonsville Reservoir in western Delaware County) and the East Delaware tunnel (leading from the Pepacton Reservoir). Actually, it's a proposal for a 2 mile exclusion zone, with a further 5 mile enhanced protection zone which would require specific applications for any wells within that zone and approval from NYC's DEP. (Article here. PDF Map of the proposed zones here.)

Then there's the pure economics. Wiht natural gas prices in the toilet, and reserves at record highs, gas companies are pulling back on drilling new wells. (Wall Street Journal article.) New York state still hasn't issued final regulations for drilling in this state, but one thing is almost certain — the regulations that New York issues will make it more expensive to drill here than in more laissez faire states. Add it all up, and drilling for natural gas in Sullivan County may just be an expensive hassle with an uncertain return.

Moderately Priced Lake Houses

Chalk it up to this unseasonably warm 'winter', but lots of second home buyers seem to be thinking about summer. And that means there are a lot of inquiries about houses on lakes. Unfortunately, the inventory of houses on lakes for sale has been very low. It's probably about the tightest inventory of lake houses I've seen in years, especially at more modest price points. Buyers who are looking for lakefront houses under $300,000 are often surprised at how few houses I have to send them. Depending on whether they're looking for a motorboat or non-motorboat lake, or a rustic or more developed setting, there may be only two or three that fit.

The sub-$300K range is the lower end for lakefront houses here, and like $300,000 apartments in Manhattan, usually involves some compromises. Like that elusive $300,000 apartment in New York City, these houses are often small and may not be the best located. Typically they're two bedrooms, one bath, located further from the city, be on a smaller lake, have high bank waterfront or need some work. That 3+ bedroom 2 bath lake house in good condition on a big lake with a gentle sloping lawn to the lake is generally a $400,000 and up buy here.

But there are some options for buyers with reasonable expectations for their budget. I've pulled together six houses I like in the slideshow on this post and in this link. One of these, MLS 31707, is not actually a lakefront house, but has convenient lake access to the northern end of Swinging Bridge a short walk away, and does get some lake view from the house. I included it because I think it's adorable new construction on a 5 acre parcel, so offers that rare combination of lake access and privacy at a moderate price. For someone looking for direct lakefront on a motorboat lake, MLS 31101 is a great deal. The house, which is high bank waterfront on Swinging Bridge isn't large but is nicely renovated.

Questions I get a lot are "How often do new lake houses come on the market?" and "When is the best time to buy?" Regarding new houses coming to market, the inventory of lake houses starts to build in early summer and peaks in September. Even then the number of new listings in still quite small. In 2011, there were only about 60 new lakefront listings across the entire spectrum of price, style and type of lake. So there's never a big selection in any given lakefront category. When buyers ask me that question, they're hoping that I'll reply that there is a time of year when they'll have dozens of houses to pick from. But that just doesn't happen.

In terms of the best time to actually buy, in terms of price or deal, it's from late fall through late spring. In terms of selection, it's late summer through early fall. Many sellers, when they first bring thier house to market, have unrealistically high price expectations. So those new summer listings are often overpriced. It can take six months or more for sellers to become more realistic about price. During the fall, many sellers who are actually motivated to sell will start adjusting their prices. Other sellers, though, will pull their houses off the market in late fall — either deciding not to sell, or hoping for better prices the following year. So you may end up with the best prices over the winter, but with the smallest selection.

Willow Wisp Farm CSA (Community Supported Agriculture) Summer Shares

It's only March, and with the dreary weather outside, summer may seem a long way off. But it's just around the corner. A great thing about being here in Sullivan County in the summer is the plethora of fresh, organic, locally grown food available --- from the first spring greens in May and June through to the winter squashes in October.

A great way to ensure a steady flow of this bounty is to buy a share in a Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) farm. With a farm share, you pay a set amount upfront, and every week get a big box of what's fresh that week. A favorite CSA here is Willow Wisp Farm in Damascus, PA, just across the river, 4 miles from Callicoon. Greg Schwartz and Tannis Kowalchuk run a great operation. A full summer share is $600, and that gets you fresh produce every week from June 8th until Nov. 20th that you can pick up at the farm on Fridays between 5 and 7. If you can't make it up on Fridays by 7, it's worth a call to Greg to see if there are other arrangements available.

A real nice aspect of the Willow Wisp CSA is that the pick-up is set up like a farm stand. There are notes on some bins saying "Choose 2 of this" i.e. heads of lettuce and on other bins saying "Take as much of this as you want." So you have some choice, and don't have to take something you absolutely don't like. (I'm talking to you, kale.)

The deadline for signing up for a summer share is April 16th. Information available at willowwisporganic.com. And if you know of other CSA's in the area, please post them in a comment below.

Current Market Conditions Up with January Data

It took me a lot longer than usual to get my monthly Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate together. I did get the February report posted today just under the wire (well, for February at least.) The data this month is very interesting. Overall, it's pointing to a strengthening market. While sales volume isn't breaking any records, it is holding pretty steady year over year. And prices are definitely trending up. There have also been quite a few bidding wars recently on attractive, well priced properties, and buyer interest in January and February has been pretty strong.

So check out the latest Current Market Conditions Report and then drop on back here to leave your thoughts on what you see happening in Sullivan County real estate.

Dunbar Towers, the Pink Elephant in Monticello, in Deal

You've probably passed it a hundred times --- the 7 story unfinished rust/pink building on the left just off of Route 17B just before the racetrack. During the boom years, when it was looking like there would be a casino at the Monticello Raceway, it was planned as a luxury condominium. It was largely finished, when the bust hit, the developer went into bankruptcy and the lien holder foreclosed on the property (around 2008). It's been sitting there unfinished ever since.

According to the Democrat, it's been purchased by Dunbar Equity Partners, who plans to turn it into a half hotel / half condo property. A new hotel here would be a very welcome new asset here. There will undoubtedly be some changes in the structure which will require permitting, so it may be a few months before finish construction starts. But it looks like that unloved, unfinished and unoccupied tower may find a new life.

4G in Sullivan?

I was on the phone with Warren Blumenthal from Catskill Sales Associates this morning. Warren knows I'm a connectivity junkie for anything related to cell and internet coverage in Sullivan County. So he mentioned that he has a 4G Verizon phone (a Motorola Razr), which has been operating on 3G in Sullivan ... until just a few days ago. He said, out of the blue a few days ago, his phone lit up with the 4G indicator. He mentioned he had talked to Verizon a few weeks ago, and the person he spoke with indicated that 4G was coming soon. But "soon" in Verizon-speak is a very open ended term. So getting a 4G signal was a BIG surprise.

Warren isn't sure which tower it's coming off of, or how widespread the 4G signal may be. He's going to do a little drive around testing. But it's a really good sign that Sullivan is on the Verizon 4G upgrade rollout sooner rather than later. If it turns out there's 4G on my road, too, I'll be upgrading my phone in the next week, and will be checking for 4G everywhere I go in Sullivan.

Has anybody else with a 4G Verizon phone picked up a 4G signal in Sullivan? If so, can you post on here where you're picking it up?

UPDATE: Jan 27. I looked at the latest Verizon 4G coverage map this morning (it's different than yesterday.) The darkest 4G areas are around Liberty and South Fallsburg, so it looks like they lit up towers in those areas. 4G signals must extend quite a distance, because there are small patches of coverage on high points quite far from each of those towers. Warren's house, on Beechwoods Road outside of Jeffesonville, is on one of those patches. But the towers around Jeffesonville do not seem to be lit with 4G yet. But the good news is that it looks like they are rolling out 4G in Sullivan.

Latest Current Market Conditions Report with December Data is Up

I just posted my latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate with sales data through December, 2011. This month's report also has full year data for 2010 and 2011. For the full years, both sales volume and prices were relatively flat. But that's not such bad news, as there wasn't a huge drop off in either, which had been predicted by some market watchers. Also, the price trend has been moving steadily up through 2011 since bottoming out in January 2011. So the overall picture, while not robust, seems to be moving more up than down.

Please check out the latest Current Market Conditions Report and then drop back here to share your comments on what you're seeing in the Sullivan County real estate market.

Hunting Property is Hot

For the past month, one of the top requests I've been getting is for hunting property --- raw land with 20 plus acres, cabins on 20 or more acres, or cabins on 5 to 10 acres that back up to state land. The price point among these buyers is remarkably consistent --- they're looking at about $100,000 for something with a cabin, or $50,000 or so for raw land. Unfortunately, it isn't that achieveable price wise here in Sullivan. Even going into the $150,000 to $200,000 range for a cabin or house with some acreage, pickings are slim.

I'm not sure how these buyers are fixing their price range, but I suspect it has something to do with a listing in Delaware County about 5 miles north of Roscoe that shows up in the MLS and online searches. It's a house on 32 acres listed for $89,900. It's on Route 7 (Rockland Road), not a back country setting, and the house needs some work. It's generated a lot of interest and multple bids.

But this is the exception rather than the rule. Something that occurs periodically in different property categories is that s single bargain priced listing can drive interest. I see it in the lakefront space all the time. Occasionally there will be a 'lakefront' listing in the $150,000 to $175,000 range, and it will spur inquiries from buyers looking for lakefront houses under $200,000. That $150,000 lakefront house may have some significant drawbacks, in terms of what many people think of as their dream lakefront getaway. It may be on a very small, shallower 'lake', be seasonal rather than winterized for year round use, or have significant structural issues. But it still sets the expectation of getting a lakefront getaway for $150,000. Until the listing drops out of the MLS, either because it sells or expires, it will generate a regular stream of inquiries for lakefront houses in that range.

That's what I think is going on with this property north of Roscoe. It's single handedly driving this interest in hunting camps in the $100,000 range. The listing came on the market on November 12th, and shortly thereafter this regular stream of inquiries started. Some reference this house, some don't. But even if they don't mention this particular house, these buyers have likely seen it online and that's generated the interest.

 

The Weather

The weather, or more specifically, the lack of winter, is the main topic of conversation here. The most common phrase I hear is "Can you believe this weather? or some variation thereof, followed shortly thereafter by "I'm not complaining, mind you." That is, unless you're an ice fisherman, cross country skier, planner of a winter ice carnival or owner of a ski hill.

This warm, snowless winter didn't really hit me as until this past weekend. On Saturday and Sunday I was showing lake property. None of the lakes are frozen over, and they only have a narrow ribbon of ice around their edges. With the leaves off the trees, and overcast skies, everything looks a little gray and sad. While people complain bitterly about snow, as a Realtor I like it (in moderation). A coating of snow freshens and brightens everything. The winter wonderland look can be magical, and is certainly more appealing than this seemingly endless extension to a post foliage fall.

So, let it snow! Of course, in a month I may come to eat my words if we get those huge dumps that shut everything down and keep city folks from driving up. But I hope we get some winter soon.

Farmhouses

Farmhouses, whether stylishly renovated, new reproductions, or ones that have seen better days and, in Realtor-speak, are just waiting for your tender loving care, have enduring appeal among New York second home buyers. There's something warm and cozy about a farmhouse that beckons as an antidote to the sharp edges and shrill cacaphony of the city, with their rocking chair porches, porch swings and fireplaces to warm against the winter chill. (Yeah, I know I'm laying it on thick here, but 'tis the season to go over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house.)

Here in Sullivan County, farmhouses range in price from smaller 'eyebrow' styles on a couple of acres needing TLC at around $150,000 to magnificantly renovated ones on large acreage pushing close to a million. The classic "Love, Valour, Compassion" farmhouse (rent the DVD) with a barn and pond on 20 to 40 acres would run in the $600's. They're rarely available, but a great example of one in Fremont on 43 acres sold this past June for $650,000. Originally built in 1890, the 2,390 sq. ft. 3 bedroom house was beautifully renovated, was set well back from the road surrounded by meadows and had views and a pond. When I work with new farmhouse shoppers, this is typically the ideal they have in mind, but with the expectation of a much lower price point. That constellation of factors approaching farmhouse perfection, though, doesn't come together in lower price ranges.

That doesn't mean that those in search of a classic farmhouse can't find some very appealing options at lower prices. It's a matter of tradeoffs — setting, size, condition, acreage or location. At the lowest price points, farmhouses may be quite small with lower ceiling heights, located on busier roads rather than on country back roads, need substantial work or have been "remuddled" over the years and will take some love to bring back the charm. One particularly appealing farmhouse on the market right now in the moderate price range is MLS 32713 near Callicoon (asking price: $259,000). The house is on 4 acres with a large, well established organic vetegable garden and a partially renovated barn currently used as a yoga studio. The downside? The house isn't set far off the road, but it is a country backroad.

In the slideshow at the left I've pulled together 15 modestly priced farmhouses ranging from $179K to $359K. They range in size, setting and style. A couple are newer 'reproduction' farmhouses, a few have been stylishly renovated and some are in more original or "remuddled" condition. I didn't include higher end farmhouses in this group. If you're shopping for that perfect farmhouse getaway that has it all, drop me an email and I'll pull those togethger for you. To see details on any of the houses in the slideshow, click on it as it rotates through or click here to see all of these in a single listing link.

Some Predictions for 2012

It's that time of the year, to look back and look ahead. At the end of 2011, we can breathe at least a little sigh of relief. It will still be a few weeks until the final end of year sales numbers are in, but it looks like sales volume and prices will be just about even with 2010. On one hand, treading water on the volume front is a little disappointing, given that the northeast region as a whole is showing a modest uptick in sales volume for 2011. But we didn't fall off a cliff, either, which is somewhat remarkable given the pall of gas drilling that has been casting a shadow over the western Catskills for the past couple of years.

So what do I think 2012 will look like? A lot hinges, in my opinion, on whether the gas drilling issue gets definitively resolved. Will gas drilling come to Sullivan County and, if so, where? The New York Dept. of Environmental Conservation is expected to issue its drilling regulations in 2012, possibly in the third quarter, but could be as early as late spring. But the NY DEC isn't the only agency with regulatory authority for drilling in Sullivan County. The four state Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is also expected to rule on whether drilling can occur in the Delaware River Basin, and if so, under what terms. The third factor is the geology. This past year, some geologists have weighed in about whether the gas underlying Sullivan is economically extractable.

I think it's a given that the NY DEC will green light hydrofrack drilling in some form in this state in 2012. A green light from the DRBC is much less certain. If the DRBC says 'no' to drilling in the Delaware Basin, or makes it so onerous or expensive to do so, that would lift the pall of drilling over this area and could uncork second home demand in the west/northwest areas of Sullivan.

A red light to drilling here will likely mean more large raw land parcels will come to market, which would mean more land available for small organic farmers. Demand for land for small organic farms has been high all year, but there's been almost none on the market here. Land prices further east in the Hudson Valley are often too high for small start up farmers. and cheaper land further north is too far from the key NYC market. Sullivan County is well positioned to take advantage of this locavore farming trend, if cheaper land is available and the possibility of gas drilling is minimized.

Until there's resolution of the drilling issue, I expect the demand profile for Sullivan County real estate in 2012 to be similar to 2011. Interest in lakefront and lake-related properties will continue to be strong, which will hopefully bring more inventory to market. The throttle on lake sales here all year has been a lack of good inventory. However, the buyer focus on value will likely keep price appreciation on lake properties modest at best. Sellers who are waiting until their lake house which could have sold for $350,000 this year will pull $450,000 won't likely see that happening in 2012.

I also expect demand to remain high for vacation getaways with privacy in the $200,000 to $250,000 range, which was a sweet spot for buyers in 2011, as well as inexpensive cottages in places like Smallwood in the low $100's. Communities that offer land protection, like Wolf Lake, Black Forest, Merriewold and Edgewood Lake, will also likely have increasing appeal.

Current Market Conditions Report with November Data

I just posted my latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate with sales data through Nov. 2011. Sales volume is holding steady, about on par with the previous month and previous yewar. Sales prices have been holding steady as well, with the average sales price up some over last year, while the median sales price is down a bit. All in all, it's a reasonably good picture given the lackluster economy. True, we're nowhere near the robust sales volume we saw during the peak of the market (annual sales are running about 500 units, compared to between 700 and 800 at the peak). Earlier in the year, market bears visiting this site were predicting that sales and prices would fall of the cliff, but that hasn't happened, taking a look at the year over year numbers.

Check out the latest Market Conditions Report and then drop on back here to share your thoughts on what's happening in the real estate market here.

Black Friday Traffic Jam Warning

I've never quite understood why millions of Americans battle the crowds to go shopping on Black Friday. But they do, and that in this region that causes an annual, notorious traffic jam around Woodbury Commons — located on the main route to Sullivan County, where the Thruway meets Route 17. The lanes to exit off of the Thruway on to Route 17 can be backed up for miles, as can the route over Bear Mountain into Harriman. Friday will be the worst day, but there can be backups exiting the Thruway on Saturday and Sunday as well.

So if you're planning to drive up here after Thanksgiving Day, allow some extra time to get around the Woodbury jam, or consider coming through NJ and PA, via Milford, PA and up to Route 97 into Sullivan County.

Port Jervis Train Service Resumes Nov. 28th

Good news for folks in the southwest part of Sullivan County. Train service on the Port Jervis line (which connects at Secaucus Junction to Penn station) will be operating again starting next Monday, Nov. 28th. The Port Jervis line between Harriman and Port Jervis has been closed down since Hurricane Irene destroyed a number of section of tracks along the run, requiring commuters to take bus shuttles from stations between Harriman and Port Jervis to connect to trains at Route 17/Ramsey in NJ.

Pdf of the schedule starting Nov. 28th.

Current Market Conditions Report Up with October Data

I just posted my latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate with sales data through October, 2011. Both bulls and bears are likely to be disappointed with the latest data — sales volume and prices are both about on par with the same period a year ago. So the market hasn't shown the downward spiral that some pundits on here have predicted all year, nor has it shown a surging pick up over last year, which, to be honest, didn't break any records. The big news has been the drop off in the average asking price, now off about 8.2% since August, the third month of decline in a row. That's welcome news, because it shows that the logjam of unrealistic seller expectations may be breaking up. So check out the latest Market Conditions Report and drop on back here and share your thoughts on what you see happening in Sullivan County Real Estate.

Where Have All The Houses Gone?

I have a short list of old reliable favorites, that I enjoy showing and I consider pretty good values. A lot of those have been on the market for a while, most due to the slow and tentative market rather than any glaring drawback to the house. Some of these houses seem like old friends, enjoyable companions who are available for a short notice date.

So imagine my surprise over the past couple of weeks when I've called the listing agents for some of these old reliables to schedule showings to find out that they have deals on them. It hasn't just happened once or twice. In the past two weeks it's happened at least a half dozen times. It's kind of a shock, actually. Like calling someone you have casually dated on  occasion, only to find out they're now engaged.

The inventory right now isn't recharging, so there are fewer and fewer 'favorites' to show. Inventory has a seasonal cycle, with it peaking in July and then dropping until it starts picking up again the following spring. The fall selling season, which is typically the busiest selling period in Sullivan County, is drawing down. It's usually pretty quiet from mid November until mid January. But we generally see a pickup in mid January for a couple of months, with second home buyers looking to lock in a place for the summer. My fear is that this winter we're not going to have a lot of good inventory to show. Inventory is likely to drop further, because quite a few sellers take their houses off the market for the winter because they don't want to keep them heated or plowed out. And not a lot of sellers think about putting their houses on the market during the winter.

Good lake related inventory is about as low as I can remember in a few years, and only a handful of lakefront houses at moderate price points that don't have a significant drawback. Houses with lake rights that are priced right ae also tough to find. The 'little black dress' house — a 3BR vacation chalet style or log home on 5 or so acres with privacy, priced in the low $200's — is almost non-existent. Buyers looking for "farmettes", places with enough open fields or meadows for a large garden and a horse or two, face a very limited selection as well.

The shortage of good, well priced inventory in many categories often comes as a surprise to many buyers. Most new buyers, when they first get in touch with me, usually expect that I'll have a huge list of possibilities to send them. But in many cases I only have a handful of choices to pass along. With all the hype about it being a "buyer's market", it's natural to think that there are hordes of desperate sellers looking to unload their houses. But while there are hundreds of 'less appealing' (a more polite term than 'pretty crappy') houses desperately looking for a new owner here, there aren't all that many appealing ones. That doesn't mean, though, that all the good ones are gone. Here's a link to 10 faves with appealing features that I consider pretty good values, along with a 2 bedroom Catskill Farms new build spec house that's really sweet. (Yes, folks, I show and sell Catskill Farms houses, too.)

Where Have I Been?

Last week I was out with friends, and someone came over to our table and asked me "What's Up?", that they're a regular reader of this blog and I haven't been blogging much lately. (Some folks have been wondering if I've been ill when they see me, 'cause I've lost 43 pounds since July. Trust me, those were hard fought pounds and I'm not ill. Thank you, Medifast.)

The last six weeks have been kind of crazy. I was very involved in the town elections, which took up a lot of spare time. October turned out to be a very busy month, real estate wise, as well. Lots of folks coming up to look at property. And every deal I have in the oven (and I have 6 right now) seems to take a lot more time and effort, and a lot return visits to houses for things like measuring a wood stove clearance for insurance, attending a septic pump out, getting contractor estimates or follow up visits by appraisers.

Things should settle down a bit now through the holidays, and hopefully I'll have some more breathing room to come back to blogging.

Current Market Conditions Report Up with September Data

I finally got the latest Current Market Conditions Report finished and posted. Sorry it took so long this month. Usually I have it up sometime between the 15th and 20th of the month. October has been hell month, busier than I can recall in recent memory. Inquiries about properties have been through the roof. Online property searches on my website have been averaging about 300 per day, and over the past month individual property views have averaged over 5,200 a day, with a few days topping 7,000. And a lot of those online searchers are calling or emailing with questions, or to arrange to come up and see houses. Most of the interest is 'deal shopping', but finally with a significant drop in asking prices, there are deals out there to be found. In fact, that's the big nes this month — the average asking price has fallen big time for the second month in a row, and is now down 6% since August.

I hope to be more timely with this in November. But until then, please check out the latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate. Then drop on back here to leave your comments on what you're seeing in the market.