Sullivan County Real Estate

The New Value Paradigm

In light of the dismal national real estate numbers, a lot of readers of this blog may be  shocked the Sullivan County numbers this month (which I'll post on my Current Market Conditions report in early Sept.) Unless there's a tsunami of closings in the next week, the sales volume numbers are going to be sluggish. But both the median and average sales prices are poised to take a huge upturn. The 3 month average could be up by 15% to 20% over July.

So what's happening? Has the real estate market here suddenly gotten 'hot', with buyers clamoring for houses and pushing prices up? Not at all. What I'm noticing in looking at the 'solds' is that some buyers are grabbing really great deals on "better" properties at higher prices.

Consider some recent examples. A 4 bedroom lakefront house at Emerald Green, on one of the best parts of the lake, sold for $360,000. A dramatic 4BR contemporary on 1.7 acres perched on the edge of Fillipini Pond sold for $350,000. An old boarding house on almost 80 stunning acres closed for $285,000. A very quirky property — a 25,000 sq. ft. "home" on 33 acres, originally on the market for $1.59M sold for $500,000.

These sales, along with others that are similar, sold well above the median sales price, and collectively will pull the average up. This may make it appear that prices are firming, but they're really not. In fact, the prices for these properties are sharply down from where they would have been at the peak, and likely below where they may have sold 12 to 18 months ago.

I expect we're going to see more bargain buying in the "better dress department", as buyers stay on the lookout for great deals. Pricing property, which is already challenging, will likely become more difficult, especially for more unique or special properties. (Note: I'm not talking 'quirky' here, but about those that are truly special.) For example, the Emerald Green and Fillipini lakefront sales would indicate that the market price for a 4BR lakefront home might be $350,000 to $400,000.

But what about a similar sized house on Wolf Lake, with a more desired rustic mountain lake setting? (4BR houses on Wolf Lake can be very tough to find.) Or hilltop contemporaries with wide panoramic views. They're also in very short supply. Demand is such in both cases, that the houses don't have to be "distress priced" to move. I'm sure that the sellers of these houses have taken much less than they wanted, but they didn't go at fire sale prices. They didn't need to.

But the number of those truly special and unique properties, and the buyers for them, are quite small. Most properties, particularly at the upper price points, will need to keep coming down until some of those value shoppers start chirping, "Wow, what a deal! It's amazing that we can get (that much acreage) (that kind of lakefront) (that large a house) for that price." There's a new value paradigm afoot, and sellers are going to have to adjust to it.

July National RE Sales Plummet

The National Association of Realtors just released the Existing Home Sales (EHS) data for July. The numbers even made my jaw drop. Nationally, existing home ssales fell 27.2% in July over June, and are down 25.5% from July 2009. The picture was even a bit more dismal in the northeast, where July sales were off 29.5% from June, and down 30.3% from the same period a year earlier.

Certainly one impact factor was the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The credit technically expired at the end of April, but that only meant to qualify for the credit a house had to be in contract by April 30th. Buyers had until June 30th to actually complete the sale. So some of those dragged out closings were in the June numbers but not in the July numbers. But that would be unlikely to account for the lion's share of the drop off.

Some folks say the big drop off in the Sullivan market is the sceptre of gas drilling. If that's the case, you'd expect the sales performance here to be much worse than the region as a whole. But in July 2010 (looking at a single month, not my usual 3 month sample)  single family home sales were down 31% from July 2009 — right on par with the -30.3% reported for the northeast region.

Instead, the big kahuna is this damn recession that keeps holding on like a bad winter cold. Folks are just holding on to their money until they see a light at the end of the tunnel.

What's kind of surprising today is that with such bad housing news the stock market didn't fall off the cliff. Down about 1% at 12:30P. There's still a few hours to go, and the last couple of hours of the trading day can be volatile. (Update: I was wrong on this one. The stock market did end up taking a tumble.)

Comments Not Working? Please Help Test

Thanks everybody for checking. It's working now!

Hi, all,

I went in to add a comment to one of my posts (which I do the same way readers of this blog do --- go to the post and add a comment on the bottom.) The Post and Preview buttons are grayed out and won't 'push'. I've tried it in IE8 and Firefox, cleared the cache, even tried it on a second computer. (Weirdly, it does work from my phone.)

I'd appreciate it if anyone dropping on my here could check to see if it does or doesn't work for them as well. If it does work, then you can just leave a comment "Hey, works for me. I'm using (Firefox, IE, Safari) and am on (a Mac, Xp, Windows 7)." If you can't leave a comment, could you shoot me a quick email to davidk@beechwoods.net.

I've opened a support ticket with Typepad, but any info I can collect I'm sure will be helpful.

Thanks.

My Tekkeon Battery Backup

I go back and forth about ditching my telephone landline. A landline always seems to work, even when there's a power outage, like there was yesterday at my house. Relying on only a cell phone at my house is problematic, because I live in a cell "shadow" and have to use a cell booster to push the signal into my house. (See my Feb 2009 post on my Wilson booster.) But that cell booster needs electricity. Just a little bit, but electricity none-the-less. So that's been the deal killer for me to ditch the land line. No electric, no booster, no cell.

Then I discovered the Tekkeon MP3450 myPower ALL Rechargeable Battery, an unobtrusive little thing that provides just the power I need for the booster. It's about a hundred bucks. It has a "main" power outlet (with 9 tips) that connects to the cell booster, and a secondary USB power port that connects to my Droid X. My power went out yesterday for about 6 hours. I decided to ride out the outage solely with my cell phone, with the Tekkeon powering the booster. No problem. There was plenty of power to spare.

It may also be possible to power something like a cable modem, if you have a voice-over-ip phone. The Tekkeon comes with 9 different connector tips and variable voltage selections. I'm thinking about getting a second one for extra power for my laptop, so by using the modem connection on the Droid I could stay connected and work for hours when the electric goes out.

I've Stopped Shopping at Target

I no longer shop at Target. I'm asking my friends and colleagues to stop shopping at this hypocritical pseudo-hip retailer as well. Target has promoted itself as the style, fashion and design discount retailer, with a liberal tilt. It makes donations to community organizations, pays lip service to equality with pro-gay employment practices, and stages edgy fashion shows in the windows of the Standard Hotel above the Highline. (Is that a slap in the face or what, right on the edge of Chelsea? And shame on the dozens of models who took part for not turning down the gig.) But Target is nothing more than a profit driven corporate behemoth masquerading under a patina of slick design.

Last month, ostensibly pro-gay Target made a $150,000 donation to the campaign of Tom Emmer, an anti-gay marriage Republican running for governor of Minnesota. (Emmer is also a supporter of the Arizona anti-immigration law and a darling of the Tea Party movement. So I expect Latinos will be exiting Target's aisles in droves as well.) Note the amount of the donation. Not $5,000. Not $10,000. $150,000. That indicates some serious support among Target honchos for this candidate and his beliefs.

Following a growing nationwide uproar about Target by gay people and our friends, and mounting pressure from investors, Target CEO Gregg Steinhafel issued a p.r. driven pseudo apology for the donation. But the company has yet to do anything more concrete, and the hollow apology seems little more than spin crafted by high priced p.r. hacks.

I'll miss Target. I like shopping there and I like their stuff. But no matter how much I like it, I don't want even a fraction of a penny of every dollar I spend there being funneled to anti-gay political candidates. So I've stopped shopping at Target. And I hope you do as well.

Check out this clever agit-pro video from YouTube with a catchy tune "Target Ain't People"

Finally! Latest Current Market Conditions Posted

I finally caught a breath and finished the August Current Market Conditions Report. This month's figures are going to red meat for the market bears. The average single family home sales price reported in the Sullivan MLS for the 3 month period ending July 31, 2010 (hey, how's that for a long descriptor for a single data point) dropped sharply, to $136,704, the lowest 3 month average I've recorded since June 2003. The price picture may be a brighter for the next few months, as the average sales price for the six weeks since July 1 to date are pointing higher.

The most interesting part of the data, though, is on the seller side. Sellers seem to finally be getting the message. The average asking price has fallen more than 2% a month for each of the last 3 months, a cumulative drop of 9.2% since January.

Check out the latest Current Market Conditions report and then drop on back here to leave your thoughts.

I Know I'm Late

I always try to get the Current Market Conditions Report finished and posted by the 12th or 13th of the month. But this month it ain't happenin'. I've been slammed busy the past couple of weeks, with back to back appointments last weekend and this weekend. That's a blessing I'm not complaining about in this market, but it means some things — like carving out the six or seven hours to put together the market conditions report, or mow my lawn, are getting back burnered. I hope to get to it early next week.

Blog Cabin / Bethel Premiers Thurs. Aug. 19

The DIY Network's Blog Cabin tv show took on renovating a dated ranch house in Bethel for its 2010 season. Work on the project has been underway all spring, and the results are pretty dramatic. The results air in a 7 part series, starting Thursday Aug. 19th at 10PM and running through Sept. 30th.

For a sneak peek at the renovation, check out the Blog Cabin website. That's where you can also enter to win this house, starting Aug. 19th. One of the big attractions of the popular Blog Cabin series is that one lucky viewer wins the house they build or renovate each season.

Catskill Farms was the lead designer and builder of the project, but the on-air is covered by teams of Blog Cabin personalities who drop in for individual episodes dealing with specific parts of the house, like the kitchen, the baths, landscaping, etc. I'm pretty sure Chuck Petersheim, the owner of Catskill Farms, gets some on-air time, though, because I noticed prior to this taping he took off a few pounds and got an upmarket haircut (lookin' good there, Chuck.) And that was no small feat, because Chuck's wife Lisa is a great cook.

The most exciting thing about this project, apart from shining a spotlight on Sullivan County, is that it shows what can be done to transform a plain, ugly duckling ranch house. City folks looking to renovate a country place generally think "farmhouse", but there aren't that many untouched farmhouses available, and often have significant drawbacks like low ceiling heights. There are more opportunities here in Sullivan County for the rehab-inclined to transform a dated ranch house, and this series offers a lot of inspiration.

If you want to do a drive by of the house, the address is 349 Happy Avenue in Bethel.

The Value of Cash

There must be a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. I would venture that about half the potential buyers that have called me recently say they're looking to pay 'all cash' (meaning they won't need a mortgage.) While paying cash certainly streamlines the purchase process, most all cash buyers have the expectation that by paying cash and not requiring a mortgage will have extra appeal to sellers and therefore a sharply better deal.

In some scenarios, cash is king. But in many situations and to many sellers it doesn't have anywhere near as much value as cash-laden buyers believe. One situation where cash has great value is when the sellers want to close quickly. But "need to close quickly" situations are less common than you might think. Another is bank owned foreclosures, where either the lender's tight closing deadlines make arranging financing difficult, or the home's systems aren't operable to qualify for conventional financing. Rehab or fixer properties are another category where cash has weight. While it's certainly possible to get financing for rehab projects, the process is time consuming and cumbersome.

The vast majority of buyers don't fit into those scenarios. In other situations, including short sales, all cash is somewhat more appealing, but more in the range of a few percentage points on the price, not the 20%, 30% or 40% that all cash buyers often think it deserves. Yes, a cash sale does shorten the closing cycle by three or four weeks, and it eliminates the risk of an appraisal shortfall. But if the deal has been struck at a good supportable price, the shortfall risk should be minimal. Even in a short sale, a lender's decision on what they'll accept will be based more heavily on time on market, listing history, and the amount of the outstanding debt than on whether the buyer is paying all cash or arranging financing. Don't get me wrong — cash has some value. But it's unlikely to sway a lender in a short sale to agree to a price of $250,000 when their approval model indicates $350,000.

With regular "non distress" sellers, it's striking sometimes how little attention they, or their agents, pay attention to the financing terms. Their eyes go right to the offer number and that's what they focus on. Unless there is some other motivating factor, they just don't seem to care that much about whether a deal is cash or financing.

That's not true in all cases, and all cash buyers should certainly try to determine whether all-cash would be a significant factor in a negotiation. But don't be overly surprised when the cash element doesn't result in the seller agreeing to a much lower price than if you weren't paying all-cash.

NY Senate Passes Drilling Moratorium

In an unexpected move, in the wee morning hours yesterday the New York State Senate approved a moratorium on the issuance of any permits for gas drilling in the state using horizontal hydrofracking until May 15, 2011. The vote was 48 yea, 9 nay, an overwhelming bipartisan showing. The moratorium bill now needs to go back to the Assembly for final passage when it reconvenes on Sept. 15th. But the Senate vote was the big hurdle.

The moratorium is shorter than anti-drilling activists had originally hoped for. Initially they were pushing for a moratorium until after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency completes its study of hydrofracking, not expected until sometime in 2012. A month ago, it was thought that any moratorium bill was unlikely, lost in the dysfunctional rubble of the Senate's budget maneuverings, so the 11th hour passage came as a pleasant surprise.

The Senate action reflects growing citizen concern in New York about hydrofracking, and that this is not a peripheral issue where lawmaker votes can slip under the radar. Kudos to Catskill Mountainkeeper for keeping this front and center with New Yorkers. For the first time I have some real hope that New York may have some political backbone left, and will stand up to Big Energy to ensure that if drilling does come to New York, it will be on our terms, and not on terms worked out in back rooms between Dick Cheney and the energy hacks.

Beware Craigslist Vacation Rental Scam

A local Realtor yesterday told me about a scam being run on Craigslist involving a home she has listed for sale on Swinging Bridge. The scammers put a post on Craigslist indicating the house is available as a short term vacation rental at a very attractive price. Included is a photo of the home lifted from the "For Sale" listing somewhere on the internet, along with the property address. They've even gotten the owner's name from property records, and added "Pastor" to it ... so the rental is being offered by "Pastor Owner Name." The story goes something like, "I'm a missionary in Africa, and have extended my time here. So I'm unable to use this beautiful lakefront home this summer and have decided to offer it as a rental."

There's a link to a rental application that potential renters are asked to download and fax back. I'm not sure how the scam plays out. Whether the point is to just get the rental application with personal information like a social security number (ostensibly to run a credit check) for the purpose of identity theft. Or whether the scammers "approve" the application, book the rental and then ask for payment to be wired.

But regardless of how it plays out, it's a scam, and potential renters should be very wary of online rental postings that don't quite pass the sniff test. Think of it as another (and quite clever) twist on the Nigerian scams.

How Much Can You Cover in a Day?

New second home buyers from the city, particularly if they're not that familiar with "upstate", often want to cover way too much ground on a single trip. It's understandable. People have busy schedules and it can be tough to carve out time to go house shopping. And if you're schlepping two hours up and two hours back, you want to get in as much as possible.

I frequently find myself in a tussle with buyers, who've picked out a dozen houses they want to see, from Livingston Manor to Glen Spey. They want to start in the morning and go for 7 or 8 hours. Commonly, they underestimate the distances involved and overestimate their stamina. From experience, I try to limit appointments to about four hours. That translates into a max of about 5 houses. I don't try to limit the appointments because I'm lazy. It's just that's what I've found to be the most that buyers can absorb in a single day trip. At five hours, and the sixth or seventh house, and everything starts mushing together. People also get tired and grumpy, too. Five hours of looking, added on to two hours of driving in each direction, makes for a VERY long day.

Occasionally people want to "do" Delaware or Greene county in the morning, and then swing through Sullivan to see some houses in the afternoon. I usually won't agree to schedule a Sullivan appointment with folks who've spent the morning in another area. It can be tough saying 'no', but I've learned over time that it just doesn't work. Occasionally I do agree, and it always ends up badly. The buyers end up getting to Sullivan much, much later than they expected, or they end up canceling the Sullivan end altogether — because their appointments further north took longer that expected, or they underestimated distances. If they do make it over, they're usually plum tuckered out and don't have much attention left for any more houses.

It can be so tempting to try to fill a day as full as possible. But there are just diminishing returns. Its like the old saw about data versus information — too much data can result in actually less information. Buyers coming up from the city should think about breaking down the areas they're considering into chewable chunks, and plan trips to include a few hours of house hunting and a few hours of something else enjoyable — a nice lunch, a hike, or a dip in the Delaware River.

The Next Hundred Million and the Future for Sullivan

A couple of weeks ago, a friend invited me to attend a program sponsored by the Forum for Urban Design in NYC. The title was America:2050, and it featured a dialogue between Joel Kotkin, author of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 and Chris Leinberger, author of The Option of Urbanism: Investing in the New American Dream. Joel's book has been more controversial because of his unapologetic promotion of a suburban future, while Chris is a staunch new urbanist, seeing salvation in higher density, walkable urban design and is an advocate of public policies to make that happen.

This is a topic that can be debated ad infinitum, and the evening at the Forum for Urban Design was lively to say the least. I've just finished reading Joel's book, and there's a premise there that has very interesting implications for Sullivan County.

At the core of Joel's book is the demographic trend that the population of the U.S. will grow from roughly 300 million today to 400 million by 2050, largely through immigration combined with the traditionally higher birth rates among first and second generation immigrant families. He posits that this population growth, fueled largely by immigration, will be an engine for significant economic growth, and result in a population that is aging far more slowly than European or Asian nations. It's a very interesting thesis, well worth the read, and a surprisingly optimistic one.

So how does this all relate to Sullivan County? Joel predicts that most of this growth will be absorbed by the Heartland (it seems he has a love affair with North Dakota) as well as the ring suburbs of sunbelt powerhouses like Houston. But 20%, or 20 million, of the growth, will likely fall into the northeast corridor, with of course, the New York metro area getting the lion's share of that.

The economic benefit for Sullivan won't be as an exurb of NYC. We're just too far away. That growth will flow to closer in, more traditional suburbs. But we may see a resurgence of our position as a convenient and affordable second home getaway locale for those 1st and 2nd generation immigrant populations. That's the traditional market position that Sullivan County has held for over 100 years, up until the upmarket country house trend of the last ten. Maybe instead of trying so hard to be the "new Catskills", trying to compete with Saratoga and the Hamptons, we should go back and reinvent ourselves as the "old Catskills", where first and second generational immigrants could enjoy a welcoming and affordable escape from the dense urban environment.

For the past decade, we've focused on the arugula and goat cheese set as the core of the Sullivan Renaissance. But maybe it's time to broaden our horizons.

I have to tread very carefully on this topic because of the fair housing laws. I can't, for example, comment that I may have seen an increase in buyer interest from this or that national origin. But it could be a very useful research topic for the county planning department. How many second home buyers (or renters) in Sullivan County are native born, or first or second generational immigrants? What is their national origin? Are there trends that we can capitalize on as a county? Should there, for example, be a summer weekend soccer league? It could be a huge draw

Riverfest Sunday July 25th

Riverfest in Narrowsburg is one of the most popular summer festivals in Sullivan County. It kicks off at 9:45AM with "River Dogs on Parade", followed by entertainment, vendors and street musicians.  A high point of the day is the annual Poster Auction. This year, 60 artists have donated posters to the auction, which runs from 12:30 until 2. (Artists work from a uniform sketched poster, and then embellish and extend. Many of the resulting works are reeally fabulous.)

If you're coming to west county for the day, consider stopping first at the great farmers market in Callicoon (starting at 11AM) and then heading down to Narrowsburg for Riverfest.

My New Droid X

I confess. I'm a tech geek. I love gizmos and gadgets. So, when it comes to cell phones, I've been very unhappy :( that I live in Verizonland, the province — until now — of pretty yucky smart phones. For the past year, continuing to struggle with my clunky Windows Mobile phone, I've clung to every rumor that maybe, just maybe, the iPhone will be coming to Verizon soon.

I'm sure someday it will, but I got tired of waiting. So last week I queued up at a Verizon store in Scranton to pick up the much-hyped Droid X on its launch day. I felt like a teenager lining up for Lady Gaga tickets.

I've been using the Droid X for a week now, and I couldn't be happier.It's speedy, customizable and has this HUGE 4.3" screen. That screen makes the onscreen keyboards incredibly smooth to use. (I've never been a lover of onscreen keyboards). There's also very accurate speech-to-text dictation, and Motorola wisely added a Bluetooth voice dialing app. (Voice dialing isn't slated to be part of the Android platform until the release of the next version of Android, coming later this summer.)

The purpose of this post isn't to get into an iPhone versus Android shoot out. Probably if the iPhone had been available on Verizon, I would have gone that route. But now that I've spent time with the Droid X, I'm not sure I'd flip over. This is one really sweet phone, and well worth considering if, like me, you're a captive of Verizon.

Property Searches Steadily Climb

Given how slow the market's been, in terms of sales over the past few months, I've been watching in somewhat shocked amazement at the steady rise in property searches on the Sullivan MLS search on my website. Yesterday, there were over 600 searches and clickthroughs to almost 6,000 individual listing views. That's the highest ever, with the exception of a day when this website gets mention in the NYTimes. Yesterday wasn't an aberration; the search count has been steadily climbing for the past month. I was chalking it up to slightly better Google position on some key terms — this site enjoyed the #1 Google search position on some key terms for about a week. But I dropped back down on those search phrases to #2 a few days ago. The number of searches didn't take a hit and kept rising.

I don't know what to read into this. One explanation is that the property search may have more return visitors, with a growing group of shoppers checking in from time to time. But the daily new account sign ups is also up, indicating that there are also more new shoppers stopping by. But whether these indications of interest will result in more sales remains to be seen.

The Tradeoffs of Lower End Lakefront

Surging temperatures = surging interest in lakefront. It's an equation that's holding true, recession or no recession. Over the past month, at least half of the inquiries I'm getting are about lakefront property. The lion's share of those inquiries are about properties at the low end of the lakefront price spectrum, under $200,000 or $250,000. Sure, we have lakefront properties on the market in that range, but most have some downside that limits their appeal (and thus the lower price.) Most commonly, the lowest priced lakefront houses don't have great lakefront. They might be on small, shallow or murky lakes --- possibly great for fishing, but not as appealing for swimming. The house may be on a busier road side of a lake, and pick up more road noise. It might be seasonal, only usable during the warm weather months and not during the winter. In a few cases, there are "lakefront" houses that seem well priced and look great online, but don't actually have legal rights to use the lakes they front on.

Some of these houses can be great options if you just want to be on water at a lower price point, and are willing to accept some tradeoffs. However, most of the folks I show these properties to really want something a little more "perfect" — a larger lake, a quieter setting, a clearer, more pristine swimming lake, a bigger house. Those are all possible, but at a higher price point. I'm finding that a lot of the $200,000 to $250,000 range lakefront shoppers I'm talking with are more likely to find what they'd like in the $300,000 to $350,000 range. In that range, houses are still modest, but generally have lake frontage that is much better.

In the $199,000 to $299,000 range, there are 11 lakefront houses on the market that are interesting. I've pulled them together in this link. There's a drawback or two to some of these, like the $199,000 cottage on Yankee Lake that's a seasonal, only usable during the non-freeze months, or the $239,000 house on Bodine Lake, which is quite good for fishing or canoeing, but not one of the top swimming lakes here. Push up into the low $300's, and there are 4 modest houses on the market (in this link) with some really nice lake frontage. MLS 28966 on Yankee Lake (our largest non-motorboat lake) has a killer lake setting with a very dramatic, straight on lake view. The house is in good condition, in contrast to many lower priced lakefront houses that can be pretty rough. The one drawback on this one is very small bedrooms, in the tradition of many older lake cottages. But you can't beat the view.

July Current Market Conditions Report Up with Latest Data

I just posted my July Current Market Conditions Report, with sales data through June. Sales up a bit from last month, prices down a bit ... pretty much the similar lateral market we've seen since the beginning of the year. Big change is the jump in inventory, which may lead to more seller pressure over the next few months, and bring more homes into the price ranges that buyers are looking to pay — and that could lead to more sales.

Inventory Passes 1,300

I've been watching the "Single Family Homes for Sale" numbers in the Sullivan MLS, as it's edged closer and closer to 1,300. Over the past few days, it's 1,297, then 1,294, then up to 1,299. But didn't push above 1,300. Today it did. Right now, there are 1,304 single family homes listed for sale in the Sullivan Multiple Listing System.

You can discount this as one of those arbitrary "mileatones" like the Dow 10,000 or the S&P 1,040. But what makes this significant is that it's the highest inventory on market in the Sullivan MLS since I've began tracking this metric in Jan. 2003. The previous inventory high was 1,292 single family homes listed for sale in the Sullivan MLS in August 2007.

Fundraiser for David Sager Today

Sullivan County Legislator David Sager is running for the state senate against long-time incumbent John Bonacic (R). David, who changed his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat to challenge the incumbent, is a strong opponent of gas drilling. "Keep Cochecton Green" is hosting a fundraiser for David today, July 3rd, from 5 to 7PM at 468 New Turnpike Road in Cochecton from 5PM to 7PM. The suggested donation is $20. There will also be two wine raffles at the event. Google Map of the location.

The Price of Privacy

The most common request I get from city buyers looking for a country getaway is "privacy". Commonly, that means a house set back from the road without another house close or even in sight, and also on a quieter backroad with little or no road noise. That can be a tall order to fill, particularly at lower price points. When I work with buyers looking in the mid $100's, that kind of hear-no-evil, see-no-evil privacy is very elusive. Occasionally you can find it, but there are usually some other compromises — the house may be quite small (under 1,000 sq. ft.), or in need of substantial repair.

The starting point to find that kind of privacy is typically about $200,000, and it can go way up from there for country charmers or contemporaries with views. But in the $200's, buyers can find a selection of pretty nice getaways with the privacy that many city dwellers yearn for. For buyers looking in the $100's, privacy and seclusion are arguably the biggest compromise factors.

Acreage alone isn't a reliable indicator of privacy. There are houses on 5 or 10 acres that aren't that private, with close neighbors or proximity to a busier road, while there are other houses on 3 to 4 acres that are blissfully secluded.

I've pulled together a group of 12 houses from the MLS in this link priced between $200,000 and $300,000 that offer a lot of privacy. Most can barely be seen from the road, and have settings where you can run around naked in your back yard, if that's your thing. Notably absent from this group are charming country farmhouses. The reason is that farmhouses weren't set back from the road down long driveways. Farmers didn't want long driveways to plow in the winter, so for the most part built their houses close to the road. Farmhouses set off the road do exist, but they're a rarity. Like anything rare, they're quite a bit more expensive.

The Halftime Report

We're halfway through 2010. The second quarter just closed out. It will be another week before I have the new Current Market Conditions report posted. But I wanted to take a quick look at how the first half of the year has played out. From Jan. 1 through June 30th 2010, there have been 174 single family sales reported in the Sullivan MLS, down just a hair from the 182 sales reported for the 1st six months of 2009. As sales dribble in over the next few weeks, that 8 sale gap will probably close and we'll be on par with 2009. Better news would have been a sales pick up, but at least there hasn't been a noticeable drop off either.

Traditionally, closing in the first half tend to lag closings in the second half of the year. In 2009, the year ended up with 441 closed single family sales in the Sullivan MLS. If that holds true this year, we'll likely end up the year with sales volume in the low to mid 400's.

On the price side, the average single family sales price for the 1st 6 months of 2010, $159,564, was down about 5% from the $167,667 during the 1st ha;f of 2009. The median sales price was almost equal, $135,250 in 2009 versus $136,000 in 2010. Looking at the upper end, there were 7 closed sales above $400,000 during the 1st 6 months of 2009 and 2010.

It doesn't seem like we're moving particularly up or down, as much as the bears on here keep looking for indications that everything is falling off a cliff. However, the average sales prices for April and May (2010) are sharply lower, and this could pull the running average down over the next couple of months. The summer pricing uptick that some sellers are hoping for is unlikely.

Please Don't Copy and Paste from Other Sources

A few folks have posted comments in the last few days that have essentially been cut and pastes of entire articles on other websites. Even if you post a link at the bottom to the other article, it is still copyright infringement. Feel free to paraphrase other articles and give your opinions on them and include a link to the full article. But please don't copy and paste entire articles into your comment. I won't post it through.

Flood Insurance Program Extended

Yesterday (June 30th) the Senate finally got around to voting through a temporary reauthorization of the National Flood Insurance Program through Sept. 30th. So deals that have been stuck in limbo and not able to close due to the inability to secure flood insurance can move forward. (Note: if you secure flood insurance now, and the program again is allowed to lapse after Sept. 30th, your flood insurance remains in place.)

Congress has also extended the closing deadline for the home buyer tax credit to Sept. 30th. This isn't reopening the tax credit to new home shoppers, however. It's just an extension of the closing deadline for deals that were in contract by April 30th. According to some reports, there were up to 200,000 houses in contract that were short sales, requiring short sale approval from the current owner's lender, that did not get approval by the original June 30th closing date. There were also a number of sales that couldn't close because of the inability to secure flood insurance. So Congress has extended the closing deadline on the tax credit to give buyers in these categories enough time to close.

This Blog and Gas Drilling

Recently a lot of folks have been sending me links to articles about gas drilling and hydrofracking, requesting that I post them on my blog. There have also been a number of commenters who've also been posting article and video links, along with their own commentary. Those comments often have the thrust of "after reading this article (or watching this video), why would anyone consider buying in Sullivan County (or even the more general 'upstate'?" When I haven't posted those comments through, I'm getting follow up comments or emails about engaging in a Realtor coverup.

I've been pretty upfront about gas drilling on this blog, and posted quite a few items about it. I don't believe any other Realtor blog or website in Sullivan County addresses it. I've posted about regulatory and legislative milestones, linked to the key drilling opposition websites and to key media resources, including the recent premiere of Gasland on HBO. But I'm quite determined that this blog not become a drilling blog — there are plenty of other places on the web where that topic is primary.

One of the problems we face at the moment in Sullivan County is that the media coverage of drilling and the Marcellus leaves the impression that Sullivan is one single, big undifferentiated risk area, a pre-Chernobyl landscape poised on the edge of environmental Armageddon. If gas drilling comes to Sullivan County — and that's still an open question — drilling will likely have a much greater impact on some areas of the county than others. There are some areas that will likely experience very little impact.

How Are Buyers Setting Price Expectations?

Sellers are often dragged over the coals for holding to unrealistic asking prices that bear little or no relation to market realities. But there's a growing lack of realistic price expectations on the buyer side. I get more and more calls and emails from buyers asking about property with price expectations that also have little relationship to market realities. My first thought is that those price expectations are being formed through internet home shopping, where potential buyers are finding the lowest prices houses in any category and setting their expectations based on that. That's long been the Achilles heel of online property shopping.

But that doesn't even seem to be holding true. For example, if you do a search on my MLS property search for farmhouses on 2 or more acres, which might be a common search for a city buyer looking for a country charmer, only 3 pop up under $150,000 (and those all have some significant drawback in terms of condition or location.) Yet buyers from the city looking for that cute country getaway on a couple of acres today typically are giving me a budget range of $125,000 to $150,000 tops. (The realistic starting point for something that they actually might like is $200,000 to $225,000.) Similarly, buyers looking for a lakefront house with a minimum of 3 bedrooms, good condition and good lakefront, often have a price target in the low $200's. (The start point for that is about $300,000, more for better lakes and more privacy.) I've gotten a few calls asking about lakefront cottages under $100,000.

I'm always curious as to where these price expectations come from. Sometimes they're based on a few properties they found online, with some misunderstanding of property characteristics (like "lake rights" not the same as "lakefront"). But often it's a number pulled off the shelf, footnoted with comments like "It's just a second home we're going to use part time, so that's what we're looking to spend," or "With the market down (or with all the foreclosures), we think we can get what we're looking for at that price." (Note: there are very few foreclosures on houses with appeal to the second home market.)

I'm not talking here about buyers being at the low end of a realistic negotiating range, but rather being way out of range for what they're looking for. The situation is not unlike what we're seeing with sellers — some are at the upper end of a realistic range for their property, but within shooting distance of finding a buyer and striking a deal, while others are way out in la-la land. Those sellers wonder why their house isn't being shown. Correspondingly, the buyers with unrealistically low expectations wonder why they don't find houses that delight them.

As a buyer agent, I face a decision whether to take on a buyer client with unrealistically low price expectations in the same way that a seller's agent has to decide whether to take a listing where the seller has unrealistically high expectations.It can be a tough call, and it's not directly related to price. A buyer looking to spend $125,000 can have more realistic expectations, or be more open to options than another buyer looking to spend $300,000.

Politics Scuttles National Flood Insurance Program ... Again!

As readers of this blog know, my vitriol tends to be directed at the political elephants, but in the political maneuvering that has led to the effective shutdown of the National Flood Insurance Program (for the second time this year), the donkeys are just as much the asses. The National Flood Insurance Program is an essential safety net for homeowners in flood zones. Because Congress failed to extend authorization for the program, it expired on June 1st. So for over two weeks now, homeowners needing flood insurance have been unable to get new policies. (Existing policies are still in force.) Home buyers purchasing homes in flood zones using mortgage financing can only close when they have flood insurance in place. Those closings aren't happening because they can't get it.

Why hasn't the NFIP been reauthorized? Because our oh-so-wise Democratic politicians in Washington will only attach a reauthorization to other bills that contain other, more controversial provisions that are toxic to the other side of the aisle. They're holding flood insurance hostage to achieve other totally unrelated agendas. It's downright outrageous. But then, that's Washington.

Tide of Public Opinion Turning Against Gas Drilling?

The tragic oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico may be having an unintended effect here in New York state. Awareness of gas drilling seems to be much more widespread, and I'm sensing a turn in public opinion against it. A quick refresher for those of you who haven't been following it. Sullivan County, and in fact all of the Catskills up to a point just southwest of Albany, sits on the Marcellus Shale, regarded as one of the most important natural gas finds in the Continental U.S. The Marcellus stretches for almost 600 miles, from West Virginia and Ohio, through northern Pennsylvania, across New York along the northern PA border and ends somewhere in Greene County. The Marcellus is being actively drilled using a technique known as "hydrofracking" in those other states, but New York has taken a more cautious approach. The New York Dept. of Environmental Conservation has put horizontal drilling permits on hold here pending the issuance of new drilling guidelines, which has been expected later this year.

The politicos in Albany have been pretty much singing a chorus of "Drill, Baby, Drill." That is, until the Gulf oil disaster, which has cast a cloud over all big energy companies, including the gas companies hoping to cash in on the "Marcellus play." Their public relations fueled claims of safety are being met with a huge dose of skepticism. Even some Republicans among my friends (and mind you, that's a small sample) have moved into the caution camp, from their more typical perch of supporting big profits for big companies over environmental concerns.

Yesterday on "All Things Considered" on NPR, there was a long piece on gas drilling in the Marcellus, as well as a column in the New York Times urging the adoption of a drilling moratorium in New York state. On June 21st, the documentary Gasland has its national premier on HBO. (There is a special screening tonight at the HBO Theater in NYC as well as screening Friday evening, June 18th at Sullivan County Community College in Loch Sheldrake. Click the Gasland link for more info.) Arguably, Gasland has a strong point of view in the tradition of Michael Moore. But it will still have an impact on public opinion. Media outlets across the state, from Buffalo to New York City, have also upped their coverage of gas drilling in the wake of the Gulf.

The politicos in Albany, who often only have one agenda item, their own self preservation, may be sensing the shift. There's been a flurry of activity over the past couple of weeks to enact some type of temporary drilling moratorium in New York state. Two versions of a moratorium have been proposed, one calling for any permit issuance to be delayed until 120 days after the completion of a federal EPA study on hydrofracking (expected to take about two years); the other calls for a one year moratorium. At this point, it appears that only the one year option has a chance of passing, and the drop dead on that will be today. (See the Albany Project post about this. The arcane workings of Albany are beyond my understanding.)

One of the most interesting things in the past few weeks has not been watching the anti-drilling forces gaining traction, but rather the response from the gas industry. A press release issued by the Independent Oil and Gas Industry of New York State on June 14th was titled "New Gas Drilling Moratorium Bill Would Be Deadly to New York Economy." Oh, give me a break. That sounds more like the kind of argument that the oil industry probably made to Dick Cheney when they sought to eliminate a requirement to require acoustic shut off systems on off shore oil wells because, at $500,000 per, they were "too expensive." (From what I've read, the Gulf oil disaster could have been avoided if these shut offs were in place.) The New York economy won't collapse if we delay drilling for a year or two. And the landowner coalitions have even organized demonstrations in Albany. They want to cash in, and they want to cash in now, baby. Let the drilling begin and let my royalty check flow.

This is one of those classic upstate versus downstate, Republican versus Democrat fights But I would say the Republicans, who are part of the party that cozied up to the oil industry to loosen drilling regulations in the Gulf of Mexico, don't have a lot of moral high ground on this one. It will be very interesting to see what happens.

Today's Times: Housing Market Slows as Buyers Get PIcky

Last evening, over cocktails with a friend in Chelsea, I was commenting (actually, "lamenting" would be more accurate) about how difficult I'm finding it to put deals together. When I do find a house for my clients that delights them (a sometimes near-impossible task, given often sky high expectations), getting the seller to agree to sell it as a fair price that my clients want to pay can be even more difficult. The last few months have been consumed with a lot of wheel spinning and fraught with frustration. I'd say "hair pulling", but I don't have any hair to pull. And then there's the gauntlet of the inspection and appraisal.

This morning my friend emailed me an article in today's NY Times: Housing Market Slows as Buyers Get Picky. It was like "Wow, it's not just here in Sullivan County, but in Seattle and Des Moines and well, everywhere across the country." The happy-happy of real estate has turned into a knock down, drag out fight in some cases. Luckily, I haven't had many of those, but putting together deals — and keeping them together — is much, much harder today.The article offered a bit of consoldation that it's not just me.

Green Acres Goes Gay: The Fabulous Beekman Boys Debuts on Planet Green

It was only a matter of time. Two fabby gay Manhattanites buy a farm upstate (in this case, in Schoharie County), pull on their muck boots and set out to do some organic farming, all with a television crew in tow to record every slippery chase of a squealing piglet. Welcome to The Fabulous Beekman Boys, debuting Wed. June 16th at 9PM on Discovery's Planet Green channel. There's a good intro to the series on the Mother Nature Network site, and Time Out New York featured the fabulous farmer-duo in an interview piece this week. This could be good or it could be dreadful. But it's definitely worth a watch, at least once.

Green acres is the place for me.
Farm living is the life for me.
Land spreading out so far and wide.
Darling I love you, but give me that countryside.

No, New York is where I'd rather stay.
I get allergic smelling hay.
I just adore a penthouse view.
Darling I love you, but give me Park Avenue.