October Sullivan Sales Numbers Posted

While the market is certainly slower than a year ago, October's sales numbers are painting a slightly brighter picture. September's 3 month sales count was down 32% from a year earlier, while October saw a slight improvement, to just 25% below a year earlier (and when all the final numbers are in, which takes a few weeks, the drop will likely be about 23%). Inventory of available homes has also stopped its climb, retreating slightly from its September peak, and prices overall are holding pretty steady. While a slight pullback in prices on closed sales can be anticipated over the next couple of months, the operative word is "slight", and it looks like we're heading into a period with prices in a range of 2005 levels, which was a very good year.

For a more in-depth analysis of the data, check out my Current Market Conditions page at http://www.catskill4sale.com/current.asp. And come back here to leave your comments on where you think the market is and where its going.

Comments

[John Meli]

As long as inventory stays low, prices will remain steady in this market but as many economists are predicting for the 2nd quarter of 2007, we will have a recession upon us. Inversion of the yield curve among other signs are obvious. The last two years of an 8 year presidency is a time period where nothing gets done. A recession will last some time and a new president will have to come into office and change things around. That will take another 2 years. Inflation is picking up once again as worker productivity is as low as 1982 and pressure is mounting on wage increases. Those are the early signs of inflation which tends to follow a housing boom 1971, 1977, 1986 and now. The next 4 to 6 years will be a stagnant housing market as inventory climbs and demand falls. For realtors, this means more work and more showings. As a physical therapist, this is similar in my field as insurance companies pay less and less for my services but I get more and more patients as awareness of my services increases increases. Any thoughts?