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February 28, 2007

Sprawl - Great Book for Anyone Interested in Land Use, Development Issues

I read a lot of books, but only about once or twice a year do I come across a book that really makes me think about my most cherished views. Sprawl - A Compact History by Robert Bruegmann, a professor in the Dept. of Art History as well as the School of Architecture and Urban Planning at the University of Illinois, is just such a book. Bruegmann uses a well researched historical perspective to question some of the most closely held beliefs of the 'anti sprawl' movement. Its not a rabid right wing anti-environmental rave, but raises some very important issues, particularly for an area like Sullivan County that is confronting significant land use and development issues.

One of the most interesting threads throughout the book is the issue of 'class' among anti-sprawl campaigners, particularly upper middle class urban refugees who move to 'exurban' areas beyond the traditional suburban circles, and then want to stop development from encroaching on their rural idyll. Some very surprising statistics --- that population movement into exurban areas actually consumes far more 'undeveloped' land than expansion of suburbs. Sullivan is a prime exurban area, with city dwellers moving out and 'consuming' 20 or 30 acres of land.

The arguments Bruegmann puts forth in the book are far too complex to distill into a pargagraph or two on this blog. But I'll tell you, I can't put the book down, and its really gotten me thinking about how 'environmental' I really am, and whether my cherished ideas about land use and conservation are actually just a reflection of elitism and self indulgence. I don't know if I agree with everything he writes, but I think anyone interested in land use or conservation needs to read it. Click on the book at left and you can go right to Amazon to buy your own copy.

Bethel To Consider Development Moratorium

If you've attended a Bethel Township planning board meeting in the last six months or so, you've seen first hand that Bethel (home of the Bethel Woods Center for the Arts) is in the bulls eye target for developers, and the Planning Board there is frankly overwhelmed. On Tuesday, the Sullivan County Democrat reported that the Bethel town board is considering a six month moratorium on new commercial development and any building proposals involving more than 5 lots. The moratorium is being considered to give the Bethel Planning Board some breathing room to catch up. Recently, the Planning Board has been reviewing as many as 20 projects per meeting. At this stage, the moratorium is just a proposal and has not been enacted.

Mirant Selling Swinging Bridge Dam

Last week, I heard rumors around the proverbial country water cooler (which is a couple of folks leaning against a pickup truck in a Peck's Market parking lot) that Mirant, the power company that owns the Swinging Bridge reservoir and dams, is about to sell its energy holdings in NY state, including Swinging Bridge. That was confirmed in this morning's Times Herald Record (read article).

Alliance Energy Renewables has bid $3 million in bankruptcy court for Mirant's NY holdings, including Swinging Bridge, Rio and Mongaup reservoirs, as well as two gas turbines. There is no other bidder, so the bid will likely be approced on March 8th. Alliance will then need to seek regulatory approvals before the sale can close.

Mirant has indicated that it plans to complete the dam repairs under its watch, but its not clear whether that will include refilling, or whether Alliance will assume responsibility for the refilling decisions.

The sale of the reservoirs by Mirant is not wholly unexpected, but it throws a wrench into the future status of our largest lake. Alliance is a gas company, and may only have interest in operating Mirant's NY gas turbines, not the hydro dams. If they don't want to operate the hydro dams, what will they do with them? Surely, they won't want to maintain them, insure them and pay taxes on them if they're not producing revenue. Would the State of NY buy the reservoirs as a natural resource? It could take a couple of years of political wrangling for that to happen.

And if Alliance does not plan to produce power at the dam, is there any incentive for them to bring the water level back to its previous level, or will it be brought back just to a level to maintain the fish and eagle populations?  It looks like a cloud of uncertainty will continue to hang over Swinging Bridge.

The other issue is that the Swinging Bridge dam and reservoir system generates a lot of property and school tax revenue for the county and surrounding townships. The  dams are currently assessed at $26 million. If Alliance gets them for $3 million, the assessments will drop substantially, along with the property taxes that Alliance will pay.

Swinging Bridge real estate boosters have seen me as something of a Scooge for the last year. Through the fall, the news about Swinging Bridge was looking pretty bright. Mirant announced the dam repair was close to finished and refilling was imminent. But I've said to clients all along that until SB is actually refilled, there are no assurances, and there continues to be some risk as to if, when and to what level the lake will come back. Do I personally believe that Swinging Bridge is coming back? Yes, its too valuable a natural and recreational resource. But I don't have a crystal ball, and what I can't predict is when its coming back, under who's ownership and to what level.

And if these reservoirs are selling for the fire sale price of $3 million, why haven't our politicians stepped up to the plate to arrange for the state or county to buy them, or even a big stakeholder like Chapin to buy 'em.

I'm not familiar enough with the situation to have the answers, and would sure appreciate anyone with more information to add some comments here.

February 24, 2007

Magical Thinking and Sullivan County Real Estate

Last year, it was the opening of Bethel Woods. This year its the potential casino. Both are events that are leading sellers to believe that property values here are on the cusp of skyrocketing into the stratosphere. Last spring, it was tough to make deals because sellers saw the opening of Bethel Woods as this magical event that would immediately transform Sullivan County and turbocharge demand for second homes. Now, the opening of Bethel Woods was certainly positive and did turn a spotlight on Sullivan County. But it didn't create a real estate stampede, although I believe it certainly helped Sullivan County weather a price downturn affecting other areas.

Now there's the casino, or at least a lot of indications that at least one casino is getting closer to reality. And like the opening of Bethel Woods, many sellers seem to believe that a green light for a casino will immediately translate into higher real estate values, regardless of type of property or location in the county. On a few deals my colleagues and I have tried to do lately, the seller's attitude has been, "Look, a casino is coming. This is my price, take it or leave it." Since the beginning of February, there has been a 1.5% increase in the median asking price for a single family home here, rising from $245,000 to $248,500. This is up 3.6% from the $239,900 median plateau we saw through the fall. Not huge jumps, but is an indication of the mindset trend among sellers.

A final casino approval is likely to spike a few property categories, e.g. raw land in close proximity to the casino site that can be developed for hotels, restaurants and other services, as well as residential properties with rental potential as primary homes for construction and casino workers in the Monticello-Kiamesha-Fallsburg-Rock Hill area. But is a casino approval going to drive demand in the second home market near Livingston Manor, Jeffersonville or Narrowsburg? I don't see it. Yes, a casino approval will shine the spotlight again on Sullivan County, and whenever we get a lot of news coverage in the city, it does drive interest, at least temporarily. That may translate into a few points on prices, not 20% or 30%. Its not going to magically make a 1,500 sq. ft. vacation chalet style house on 5 acres that might have a value of $250,000 today worth $350,000 tomorrow.

I think the next few months could be really tough, because sellers who can do so may be holding out for the casino green light. We also may see a drop in inventory, with sellers taking a "wait and see" attitude, pulling houses off the market or delaying putting their houses on the market.

February 20, 2007

Spitzer Reaches Deal on Casino, Next Stop DC

Yesterday, Gov. Spitzer took 2 major steps in pushing forward the St. Regis Mohawk Casino at the Monticello Raceway. (Read the Times Herald Record article.) He accepted the environmental statement from the Dept. of the Interior, a step that was widely expected to happen quickly. But he also announced that he had reached agreement on the financial pact with the Mohawks, a step that many thought might take months of negotiations. The fact that he took these actions so quickly, and decisively, indicates Spitzer's very strong support of a Catskills casino.

One major step remains. Dick Kempthorne, US Sec. of the Interior, must agree to take the 30 acre casino site at the raceway into trust for the St. Regis Mohawks, as this is an 'off reservation' casino. Kempthorne has been a vocal opponent of off reservation casinos, so this crucial step is not a slam dunk. However, Spitzer said that he will personally lobby Sec'y Kempthorne, and there will also be considerable pressure from the NY congressional delegation led by Charles Schumer, a longtime casino supporter.

Some steps towards a casino are major, some are minor, and some get a lot of press even though they're not that important. So sometimes its hard to discern when there's a big leap. I suppose one measure would be where a new report on a casino step is reported in the NY Times. This one made the front page, so I think its safe to put it in the 'major step' category.

February 19, 2007

Smaller Serving Size, Same Price

The food industry has used this trick for years to maintain the line on prices while increasing profits — reduce the serving size but keep the price the same. A similar phenomenon seems to be happening with Sullivan County real estate. Not so long ago, land here was dirt cheap. When people sold old run down farmhouses, they didn't bother to subdivide off large chunks of acreage because there wasn't that much value to it. An old farmhouse on 100 acres might sell for $250,000, but if you divided off 50 acres, the farmhouse on 50 acres might fetch $225,000, but the extra 50 acres would only sell for $50,000, so why bother.

Today the situation is very different, and land has become much more valuable. A 50 acre parcel of good land could sell for $300,000 to as much as $500,000. The land under a modest, partially renovated farmhouse on 100 acres is often worth much more than the house. The house and land together could have a value of $1 million, but as I've written extensively before, we don't have much of a $1M+ market here. So the solution to maximize value is for the owner to subdivide off a parcel or two from the main house, and sell, say the house on 40 acres for $600,000, and two 30 acre parcels for $250,000 each.

That's just what's happening. A modest farmhouse on Stewart Road near North Branch on 80 acres is being subdivided into 2 parcels, with the house and 50 acres on the market at $699,000, and the remaining 30 acre parcel of raw land listed for $199,000. Over on Beechwoods Road, a large renovated farmhouse on 97 acres is being offered for $1,200,000 —  but the owner has started the process to subdivide off the house and 37 acres, along with 2 land parcels and plans to relist the house on the 37 acres under $700K.

Buyers in every property category seem to have a psychological price ceiling. For a 'nice farmhouse on acreage on a quiet country road', that's somewhere in the $600's; its not in the $800's or $1M+ range. Both of these sellers, I think, understand that. And one way to both maximize their profit and stay under a psychological price threshold is to 'reduce the serving size', or sell the house with less acreage. The result is that better farmhouses now typically come with 30, 40 or maybe 50 acres, rather than the 60, 80 or 100 acres that were common a few years ago. Houses on 100+ acres are becoming rarer, and typically now carry pricetags above the $1 million mark.

February 18, 2007

Property Manager Sets Up Shop in Sullivan

I've been lamenting the fact that we don't have a dedicated property management company here in Sullivan County. This week I got the following email from Jo Ann Peabody that she is doing property management here, and I wanted to pass this along:

I'd like to invite your realtors to take a look at mrspeabody.com a property management company located in Bethel, NY.  Jo-Ann Peabody Management Inc. has been providing property and business management for 9 years in Sullivan County.  With a large network of pre-screened and INSURED service providers, home owners have a one-stop place to go for all property management and maintenance needs.  Specializing in second-homes, from the occasional job to full property management, Jo-Ann Peabody Management provides a service such that your home owners can have life as they want it because we do everything they come here NOT to do.  We even offer a concierge service for shopp ing, event planning, or just finding the answer to whatever issue they may have.  The most requested services right now are turning the water on to homes, pantry stocking, and getting docks and boats put back in the water. There is still room on our schedule.  Please check us out and let us know what you think at jp@mrspeabody.com or call me at 845 798-5885

February 14, 2007

Lawsuit Filed Against Monticello Casino

The Times Herald Record reported today that a coalition of groups, including the National Resources Defense Council and the Sullivan County Farm Bureau, have filed a lawsuit in Federal court challenging the environmental approval for the St. Regis Mohawk Casino at the Monticello raceway.

The end of the article mentions a number of other obstacles that the casino faces. Many people are under the impression that the casino has been approved. Notably, the article mentions Secretary of Interior Dirk Kempthorne must still give final approval and agree to take just less than 30 acres of land into trust for the casino. That is a MAJOR step, and many believe that the Dept. of Interior's environmental approval (which the lawsuit is challenging) is the same as a final casino approval by the Dept. of Interior, but the big kahuna step is agreement by the Dept. of Interior to take the land in trust, essentially 'creating' sovereign off-reservation land for the casino.

February 11, 2007

The Pitfalls of Internet House Shopping

Internet house shopping is a lot like online dating. What's portrayed online isn't necessarily what you find when you show up for your first date. I confess — when I'm shopping for houses outside of this area, where I work as an agent, I'm as much of an internet house hunting junkie as anyone. I can spend hours searching MLS sites, broker sites, FSBO (For Sale By Owner) sites and Craigslist, looking for hidden property gems. Even though I know better, I'm particularly drawn to those "too good to be true" bargains.

Last fall, the Sullivan Multiple Listing Service opened up the MLS to enable agents, like me, to incorporate MLS Search on our websites. Its been a blessing and a curse, and very interesting to see how its changed how I work with buyers. Hundreds of people have saved listings and searches, and when I talk with someone I can review the listings they've saved and get a good idea of what catches their interest. One of the great benefits of so many people searching is that this 'collective consciousness' has brought some listings to my attention that just didn't hit my radar screen.

But the curse of internet house shopping is that a lot of online listings don't quite paint an accurate picture of the property. Its not really fraud or deception on the part of listing agents (who take the photos and write the descriptions). They work for the seller and their job, after all, is to feature the house in a positive light. In any given property category there is a wide variation in prices, and buyers are understandably drawn to the lower priced properties. We all want to save money and get a good deal. But lower priced properties are usually cheaper for a reason. Take farmhouses, for example, which is a very popular category. There might be 2 farmhouses, each about 1,800 sq. ft. with 3 bedrooms. One is priced at $225,000, the other at $450,000. But the less expensive one may be located on a busier main road with houses close on either side; the ceiling heights may be low (6 1/2 or 7 ft.) or there may be a significant structural problem. Location is another value factor. A similar house near Woodbourne or Hurleyville is going to be priced lower than one near Jeffersonville or Callicoon, just like a 1BR coop in Inwood is going to be far less expensive than in Chelsea.

The problem, though, is that its difficult for buyers to make those distinctions from the internet. As a result, many buyers are forming unrealistically low price expectations based on the listings they've found. Over the past five years, I've been out with hundreds of buyers (mostly second home) and seen reactions to thousands of houses. I have a pretty good handle on what different types of people are looking for, in terms of setting, house style and location and have developed a pretty good sense of what that's likely to cost for different property types. I regularly update a page on "What Houses Cost Here in Sullivan County", with ranges buyers can expect for the most popular property types. If a house you've found on the internet is priced substantially below those category ranges, there probably is a reason why.

We've become a nation of online bargain shoppers, buying everything from cars to computers to televisions via the internet. I even bought one of my cars on eBay! We've become skeptical of "salespeople", believing that they only want to sell us what's most profitable to them, rather than what is in our best interest to buy. We've come to trust the internet as being more objective and impartial, and view intermediaries as biased and self serving.

Buying real estate is different than buying a plasma tv. There may be 30 or 40 models of 42" plasma tvs to choose from, and there are scads of online data, from professional reviews to user opinions, to help you decide. But in Sullivan County alone, there are 1,100 single family homes on the market, and no two are alike. That's where the guidance of a professional, who's familiar with the inventory of property, becomes invaluable.

Finding the right house for a client is a collaborative effort. At the outset, I like to have a short 10 or 15 minute phone conversation to help me understand what you're looking for. I can suggest areas to focus on or type of properties and bracket a price range that you can expect. Then I can email you properties to take a look at, and get your thoughts on what catches your fancy and what doesn't, and from there can hone in further. I can also look at the listings you've found, to give you my thoughts pro and con. From there, we can narrow in on a group of houses to actually go see. The most successful outcome of that process is when someone says to me, "Wow, David, you really nailed it. You showed us five houses, and four of them were right on the mark."

Don't be afraid to pick up the phone and call, whether its to me or another Realtor. I don't bite and there's no obligation. I may be able to help with what you're looking for, and I may not — I don't handle every property category or all areas of the county. But if I can't help you, I can try to direct you to someone who can.

And don't stop internet house shopping. Its fun, and it can provide whoever you work with invaluable information about the type of properties you're interested in. But just take things with a grain of salt, and remember the old adage that what seems too good to be true probably is. The vast majority of online listings don't 'lie', but they can be like a well staged photograph — with the right makeup and right lighting, you may not see the wrinkles.

Two Articles This Week on Our Little Slice of Heaven

Last weekend, the worldwide readers of the Financial Times (London) were treated to an article, "Where Getting Away is Essential", by Ed Holland, one of their NY correspondents, about his getaway here in Sullivan County. Its quite interesting, because its written from a different perspective by a Brit. Ed's characterizations are a bit strained, e.g. "So this is not the Hamptons. Standard issue for men is the plaid shirt, a pick-up truck and a gun. I may well be the only man who doesn’t hunt. At a nearby lakeside pub, moonshine is dispensed and a goat wanders nonchalantly among the drinkers,", but its a fun read nonetheless.

The Wall Street Journal also featured Lackawaxen, PA, just across the Delaware River from Narrowsburg, in an article, Swift Waters,  that  highlighted the growing popularity of the area among retirees. A WSJ Online subscription is required to view that one, though.