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April 28, 2007

NYRI Gets its Magic Trump Card

This past week, the Dept. of Energy handed out the gift that NYRI (New York Regional Interconnect), the proposer of a high transmission power line through Sullivan County, has been waiting for. Basically, the U.S. Dept. of Energy has designated a large swath of the east coast, including all the NY counties that the NYRI power line will run through, as a "national interest electric transmission corridor."

That designation effectively takes approval and oversight out of state hands and puts it in the hands of the Federal government. Oh, the Republicans wouldn't be so blatant to trample on states' rights, would they? Of course not. They have to maintain the illusion of states' rights, so an applicant like NYRI does have to struggle through the state approval process for 12 months. Then, if they don't get the approvals they want, they can go right to the Feds for approval, trumping state oversight. And the magic trump card in all of this? Federal approval includes the right to take property for the project by eminent domain.

So NYRI has no further motivation to explore alternate routes, which was being required by NY state, or hold any more of those 'town meetings' to maintain the charade of getting input and paying attention to local concerns.  No, now they can go straight to the very energy-friendly Bush administration and get what they want.

Yes, the Energy Dept. will hold some hearings. But this is not an administration with a track record of saying 'No' to BIG ENERGY. Any of you Republicans with nice, expensive property along the power line route, or in view of it ---  you'll have a front row seat to this administration's pro-Big Energy policies coming home to roost. Its not just the faraway Alaskan National Wilderness that this administration is willing to sacrifice for Big Energy profits, its your back yard. But you can console yourself that you're 'giving one up for the gipper'.

Click here to read the article in the Times Herald Record.

April 27, 2007

Alliance Commits to Swinging Bridge Refill

This week, Alliance Energy Renewables, soon to take over ownership of the hydropower reservoir system in Sullivan County (including Swinging Bridge), promised this week to refill the Swinging Bridge Reservoir "to the levels prior to the dam repair." That's great news. While Mirant, the current owner, started the refill this spring, there's been a lot of anxiety about the Alliance takeover, because they were silent on whether they were committed to maintaining and operating the reservoirs. For more info, you may want to read the article in this Tueday's Sullivan County Democrat.

Swinging Bridge is looking pretty good. The level is up to about 1,050 feet. (No, that doesn't mean that SB is 1,050 feet deep. The lake level is measured at feet above sea level.) The historical level for recreation is 1,070. It looked like SB briefly reached 1,070, but that was due to water being held back during last week's heavy rains as part of a flood management plan. There's a ways to go to reach 1,070, in terms of testing and approvals, but certainly things are moving in the right direction. No word yet, though, on when motorboating will again be permitted on the lake, but hopefully by this summer.

April 25, 2007

National, Regional Existing Home Sales Data Shows Downturn

If you watched the news last night or this morning, you probably saw reports about the latest Existing Home Sales data released by the National Association of Realtors for March. The media sure likes hyperbole --- lots of verbs like 'plummeting' and 'crashing'. I really wish they would put a little more thought into their analysis, but that wouldn't quite fit into an attention-grabbing 30 second sound bite.

Yes, the real estate market is slower. We've known that for months. The market was peaking in early 2006, so current year-over-year numbers are a comparison against record activity. Nationally, the seasonally adjusted number of sales was down 11.9% in March over March, 2006. In the northeast, year over year sales were down 8%. But if you compare the annualized March sales (5,320,000) to the 5,677,000 for all of 2006, the annualized rate is down nationally by 6.3%.

The picture is slightly different, and better, in the northeast. Year over year, seasonally adjusted sales are down 8%. But the annualized March rate --- 800,000 single family home sales --- is actually up 1.6% from the 787,000 houses sold in the northeast in 2006, and only 4.6% down from the peak of 2005, when 838,000 houses in the northeast changed hands. Now, this performance is certainly down and indicates a pull back from the roaring market of the last few years. But I wouldn't categorize it as 'collapsing' or 'plummeting'.

In my experience, what I'm seeing is that houses that are attractive and well priced (which, in my opinion, is about on par with what they would have sold for in mid-2006) are selling. The biggest drag on the market I'm seeing is not a lack of demand on the buyer side, but a shortage of attractive, well priced inventory. Yes, there is a lot of inventory on the market, but a lot of sellers still have their heads in the clouds. More experienced agents, who've weathered previous market cycles, all tell me that it can take a year for sellers to get with the program when there is a market shift. But I gotta tell you, I'm getting impatient. Sometimes I wish I could just run around and put scarlet letters on the 'For Sale' signs in front of houses that I think are ridiculously overpriced.

You can check out the latest data yourself at http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EHSdata

April 24, 2007

Bethel Woods Line Up Takes Shape; Dylan, Chicago on Tap

Tickets for the New York Philharmonic at Bethel Woods (www.bethelwoodslive.org)went on sale yesterday. They've also officially announced that Bob Dylan will perform on June 30th. The rest of the summer is starting to take shape, with the following as the probable summer line-up, with additional acts likely to be added over the next few weeks.

June 16: Chicago with America
June 30: Bob Dylan
July 7: New York Philharmonic with conductor Bramwell Tovey
July 27: Brad Paisley with Jack Ingram, Kellie Pickler and Taylor Swift
July 28: Little Anthony & The Imperials
Aug. 11: County Joe McDonald
Aug. 17: Arlo Guthrie and Richie Havens

Casino Decision Not Likely Until At Least 2008

The Times Herald Record reported this morning another glitch in the casino approval process. (See article.)  The Dept. of Interior and the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) have struck a deal whereby they've agreed to not litigate the NRDC-led court challenge to the environmental approval until after the Interior Dept. has completed its review process (and Sec'y of the Interior Dick Kempthorne has agreed to take the 30 acres of the casino site into trust as tribal land.) Kempthorne is an opponent of off-reservation casinos and under no obligation to complete the review and take the lands into trust. So he may take his sweet time, and possibly take no action at all through the end of his term. If Kempthorne agrees to take the land into trust (and that's a BIG if), then the lawsuit will be restarted and fast-tracked, but will take 4 to 8 months from that point. So its very unlikely we'll see any casino green light this year.

April 18, 2007

Spring Lull Sets In, Great Time to Shop

Every year, I'm always a little surprised when things get slow between Easter and Memorial Day. For second home buyers, it seems the perfect time to shop. The weather is better, the days are longer, and if you find a house you can close on it in time to enjoy it for the summer. The seasonal cycles, particularly in the second home market here, are counter-intuitive. Buyers are always surprised when I tell them that the winter --- between New Years and Easter --- is usually busy. Go figure. Then there's the spring slowdown, a period you would expect to be busy and it isn't. Most people think that summer is our busiest season, when it really isn't. That honor goes to early fall, between Labor Day and Halloween.

I've chewed this over with colleagues time and time again. Why the spring slowdown? The general feeling is that people get caught up with springtime commitments, particularly graduations. Another thought is that serious buyers looking to be in a home by summer have already done their shopping, during the dog days of winter, with some of that buying fueled by bonuses. Tax season also takes its toll, with many people sweeping extra cash into IRA's. Also, second home buyers may be in income brackets where they're writing a hefty check to the IRS rather than conjuring ways to spend a refund. Tax season may also be the one time during the year when many people sit down and take stock of their finances. Sort of a financial Yom Kippur.

The paradox is that this is probably the best time to shop for a house, particularly this year.  Inventory is pretty good. While houses have been selling at a steady clip over the past few months, a lot of new inventory has come on the market to replace it. Typically we don't see inventory rebuilding from the winter sell off until after Memorial Day; this year its coming a bit earlier. The inventory of single family homes has been holding pretty steady between 1,000 and 1,050. For people looking for something with some acreage, this is also the best time of year to see land. The snow is gone but the trees are still bare.

Real estate brokers are also more relaxed and have more time to spend with you. During peak seasons, particularly on weekends, better brokers and agents tend to be heavily booked. Summer homes may not be regularly occupied yet, making it easier to arrange to see them. Daylight savings time also makes the days longer, so its possible to house shop into the early evening.

There are some downsides to late spring shopping. Sellers often think that the magical summer season is just around the corner, and may be tempted to hold off for a better offer "when the crowds return." This is something that experienced listing agents, aware of market cycles, are pretty good at addressing. Houses just do not fetch sharply higher prices during the summer, and the cost of carrying a house into the fall selling season can offset any anticipation of a higher selling price then.

The other downside is that houses often don't show as well during the spring. Gardens tend to be scraggly messes. Perennials are just masses of sticks, grass is brown and trees are bare. This year, with the bizarre weather, even the daffodils failed to do their thing on schedule. A lot of summer houses haven't yet been opened for the season. It can be a little creepy to go into a house with the furniture covered with sheets, and with the outdoor furniture and toys crammed into the living room. This time of year, houses just aren't at their "Ready for my close up, Mr. DeMille" best.

Even with the downsides, the next six weeks between now and Memorial Day, is one of the best seasons to house shop here in Sullivan County.

April 13, 2007

Swinging Bridge Refill Reports

I've heard from a few different people who either live on Swinging Bridge, or regularly drive past, that the lake is refilling. One person said it was up 19 feet, another thought it was about halfway. I'd appreciate anyone who lives on Swinging Bridge, or who has knowledge about what's going on, to add a comment here with the latest that they're seeing. Thanks.

April 07, 2007

Are Listing Agents or Sellers the Price Problem Culprits?

This past week I met with a friend of a friend who's looking to sell her house. As an exclusive buyer agent, I don't list property, so wasn't fishing for a listing. She wanted some ideas about what she could do to make her house more appealing to buyers. Eventually the conversation came around to price. I'm reluctant to give price advice to sellers. At some point, I may be on the other side of the table negotiating for a buyer of their property. I did ask if she had talked with other Realtors, what they may have recommended and what price she had in mind. Yes, she had talked with a listing agent, and that agent's price recommendation turned out to be 25% or 30% above where I thought the property would likely sell for, but she now had that price fixed in her mind.

I wish I could say this was a rare occurrence, but unfortunately it isn't. Sellers hear what they want to hear, and agents who thrive on getting listings prey on that. Getting listings is a competitive business, especially in a place like Sullivan County where there are over 400 Realtors and only about 1,000 sales a year. You do the numbers. A common technique for some listing agents is to engage in superficial price flattery, dangling the sugarplum of a high sales price in front of sellers to encourage them to list with them.

In fairness, sometimes the number doesn't come from the listing agent, but from the seller. "So, Ms. Seller, what do you want to get for your house?" the smiling agent with listing agreement and pen in hand asks. "We want $475,000," says the seller, sitting in her Laz-Y-Boy lounger  in the middle of her panelled and drop ceilinged living room looking out at the view of the passing trucks on Route 17B. "Excuse me, did you say $475,000?" asks the listing agent, shouting over the din of the passing trucks. "Yes. So and so's house just sold for that, and casinos are coming." "I'd recommend a price slightly lower than that, but if that's what you want, we can certainly try," says the agent, writing in the number and passing the listing agreement and pen over to Ms. Seller.

This scenario happens over and over and over again. Listing agents rationalize taking overpriced listings by saying, "Look, if I don't take it at that price, somebody else will." Of course somebody will, but that doesn't mean the house will get sold. The belief in taking an overpriced listing is that, in a month or so with no activity, the agent will come back and work the seller down to a more realistic price. At least, that's the theory.

But does that really happen? I took a look at the 583 houses that have been on the market here longer than 180 days. By the way, that's 57% of the total inventory of 1,022 single family houses. The shocking statistic is that of those 583 market laggers, 250 (or 43%) have had no price reductions (and even price increases) during their time on market, and an additional 162 (28%) have had price reductions of less than 10%.

That means that among houses that have been on the market longer than six months, only 29% have had a significant price reduction of 10% or more!

Now, price is only one part of the marketing equation — albeit a very important one. Price reductions, in and of themselves, may still not be sufficient to move a dog. And some unique properties do require a longer time on the market to find the right buyer. But when 71% of houses with lengthy time on market have had price increases, or no or just modest price reductions, something is wrong. While sellers are certainly complicit, some of the blame rests firmly at the feet of listing agents who aren't doing their job.

Listing agents need to be basing price recommendations on a good market analysis and comparable sales. They need to be regularly giving their sellers feedback on the market reaction to their property. I am frankly shocked at how few listing agents call me after a showing to ask for the buyer's feedback so they can pass it on to the seller. I give kudos in this regard to a handful of brokers and agents who do this — Diane Deutsch and Tony Ritter at Preferred Homes and Properties,  Myrna Ginsburg, the whole crew at Freda Real Estate, Diane Silver, Ronnie Murphy and Jay Sparr at Yeager, Fred Williams at Malek, Loretta Duarte at Coldwell Banker and Ellen Schwartz at McKean Real Estate White Lake. There are others, of course, but these are the ones that come to mind.

There are also many agents that view the pricing of property as a very serious matter. The best listing agents will often make a first appointment to see the house but won't discuss pricing at that meeting. They come back for a second appointment to discuss pricing — after they've had a chance to  review comparable sales and other competing properties on the market. At Freda Real Estate in Callicoon, an agent will often ask to bring back a few other agents from the office to get their thoughts on a property before making a price recommendation.

Some agents are better than others at practicing "tough love" with sellers. I have great respect for agents that turn down listings because they think the seller's price expectations are grossly inflated. If you look at the most successful brokerages in Sullivan County, they typically are the ones that engage in appropriate pricing, and work with sellers to adjust pricing based on buyer feedback. Of course, their success gives them the flexibility to do that. If you're busy, you don't want to waste your time with unrealistically priced listings just to build your book. If you're not busy, what the hell — you don't have much to lose and if you throw enough stuff at the wall, something might stick.

Sellers who truly want to sell need to become more informed consumers. They need to look beyond smiling agents dangling flattering prices. Its the experienced 'tough love' professionals, who recommend realistic pricing and tell you to clean the toys off the front lawn and get the house painted, who are going to get your house sold.

April 05, 2007

March Sullivan Sales Data and Analysis Posted

Hey, everybody, its that time of the month again. My Current Market Conditions Report, with sales data through March 2007, is up. Please check it out and come back and post your comments on what's happening in the real estate market here in Sullivan County.

April 02, 2007

Subprime Mortgage Meltdown - Impact on Sullivan?

The news media has been flooded with reports over the last few weeks about the meltdown in the subprime mortgage business. The big surprise is that so many people see this as a big surprise. Who could possibly think that the 'Wild West' lending practices of the last few years wouldn't have consequences? The culprit isn't just subprime lending, but the whole universe of adjustable rate and 'exotic' mortgage products — no money down, low teaser rates, negative amortization, interest only and other "features" — that led many to  believe they could purchase homes that they really couldn't afford.  Those chickens are now coming home to roost.

I tend to be pretty conservative, at least when it comes to mortgages. I've never been a fan of adjustable rate mortgages, particularly if a borrower can only comfortably qualify for the initial pre-adjustment payments. I've also felt pretty strongly that second home buyers have no business buying a large discretionary purchase like a vacation home if they can't scrape together at least a 10% or 20% down payment. On more than one occasion I've said to a client "You can't afford this house", even if someone will lend them the money to buy it.

The direct impact of the problems in the subprime market probably won't be that significant, for a couple of reasons. Sullivan County is heavily a second home market, and very few 'second homes' are financed with subprime loans (although some prime borrowers have used adjustable rate products.)  In the primary home sector, New York is a relatively conservative lending state, with a much higher proportion of conservative, fixed rate mortgages than states like Georgia and California. New York also has one of the best state-sponsored subsidized mortgage program for first time home buyers in the country. Known as SONYMA, these mortgages for first time home buyers have fixed rates and help get New Yorkers into homes they can both afford to buy and to own.

Of course, New York is not immune to a wave of subprime and adjustable rate foreclosures. Last week, Sen. Charles Schumer estimated that 50,000 upstate homeowners are at risk of foreclosure over the next 2 years, based on an estimate that 3.6% of mortgages could default. That's an estimate without state intervention. But New York has a long tradition of state aid, and will likely come up with some state program to help New Yorkers facing foreclosure stay in their homes, possibly by expanding the reach of the SONYMA program to help these borrowers.

But there will certainly be an impact. Mortgage people I work with are talking about tightening requirements for borrowers. Marginal borrowers that may have been easily approved just a few months ago are now being turned down. Facing tighter underwriting requirements, a borrower who once qualified for a $300,000 house may now only qualify for a $250,000 house. Some borrowers with low cash reserves for a down payment and closing costs may be told to come back when they've saved up more money. Lenders may start looking more closely at employment histories, and may again require 2 years of stable employment, and self employed people, particularly those with variables incomes, may face greater scrutiny.

Mortgage financing is the fuel that drives the housing market. Less fuel = less drive. Tighter credit requirements will ultimately translate into a smaller pool of buyers, and that can mean lower demand. However, the housing market is considered by many economists as critical to the U.S. economy, and if a substantial downturn in housing could lead to a recession, the Fed and the U.S. government could intervene to prevent that from happening. Inman News reported this morning that David Shulman, a senior economist for the Anderson Forecast, predicted in his recent forecast report, "A Long Runway for the Soft Landing," that the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds rate from 5.25 percent to 4.5 percent by yearend to help reinvigorate the real estate market.  A drop in interest rates increases housing affordability.

The collapse of the subprime market may, however, have a positive rollover impact on the prime lending market. One theory holds that there is still a huge amount of investment capital looking for a home in mortgage backed securities. As this capital shies away from subprime loans, there will be more money chasing prime borrowers. Wholesale mortgage money is like any commodity, and follows the laws of supply and demand. When supply is greater than demand, prices fall. Prime borrowers with good credit, strong employement and sizeable down payments, e.g. low risk, may be in the driver's seat when shopping for money.

I don't know how this will all play out. But it will be a very interesting phenomenon to watch over the next few months.