Where Have All the Houses Gone? No Room at the Inn in Sullivan?

I've been selling real estate for almost 8 years here in Sullivan County. At times over those eight years I've seen tight inventory in popular property categories, but nothing like what I'm seeing now. Yes, the overall inventory in Sullivan County is up — to about 1,100 single family homes on the market, from a low of about 700 during the peak of the so-called "hot" market in 2005/2006. But while inventory overall may be up, the inventory of good houses, particularly for the second home market, is way way down. Or so it seems, every time I try to put together a tour of houses for buyers coming up from the city.

A reliable category for moderate range buyers looking for something with privacy or lake rights has been the 80's era "vacation chalet" A-frame style house with cathedral ceilings and a loft in the $250 to $325K range. There were a number on the market this past winter and spring — one at York Lake, one at Edgewood Lakes, on on Mahogony Road in Liberty, one in Pine Ayre and one on Klinger Hill Road west of Roscoe. They're all now sold or in contract, and there haven't been new similar houses coming on the market to replace them. This is the first time I can remember - in 8 years - that I don't have a good vacation chalet style house in the moderate price range to show. Its kind of like a Realtor in the city saying, "Sorry, I don't have any one bedrooms available." This type of house has always been the reliable little black dress that marked the middle of the market — always available, with wide appeal, that could be accessorised up or down.

Most of the spec houses that Catskills Farms had in inventory all sold or went into contract in the last few months.  (With the exception of one home in Chapin Estate, Catskills Farms is now selling from plans.) Two new construction spec houses by other builders in the $400,000 to $500,000 range, west of Roscoe, that lagged on the market for over a year, are now in contract as well.

As for farmhouses, this is also the first time I can recall that I don't have a few nicely renovated, well-sized farmhouses on 10 to 20 acres in the $500,000 to $600,000 range to show. There are 3 or 4 beautifully renovated, larger showplaces in the $1M+ range, as well as some houses with compromises in the  $400,000 range, but nothing great in that key $500,000 market segment.

The market is definitely very active. But the buyers that are active all seem to be looking for something similar. Setting is key — privacy, or nicely set houses with lake rights or lakefront.  Above all, a house has to be charming, or have that 'vacation feel', like a cabin or vacation-chalet style. Ranches and anything with vinyl siding is out. And houses with those features are in very short supply.

I gotta say that this is one of the toughest markets that I've dealt with, in terms of matching buyers up with appealing houses. We're already into July, which should be the peak of the annual inventory cycle. The demand is here, but the houses just aren't.

Comments

[Tony Ritter]

FYI...
NAR report just out for pending home deals.

Kindest regards from Narrowsburg,
Tony Ritter
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Online at:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/03/news/economy/pending_home_sales/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

[headline]
Key home sale index slides to 6-year low

[sub]
Reading of pending home sales sinks to lowest since September 2001, suggesting more pain for the housing market.

[article snipped]
July 3 2007: 10:47 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Existing home sales are likely to see more declines in coming months as a key reading of pending deals fell to nearly a six-year low in May, a real estate group said Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales, which reflects homes under contract, sank to 97.7 in May from 101.2 in April. The latest reading is 13.3 percent lower than May 2006.
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[Nest Dweller]

"Ranches and anything with vinyl siding is out."
Man, David... you REALLY hate vinyl siding!
Yes, it generally lacks charm. But, in it's defense, it makes perfect sense for a second home owner as it requires zero upkeep.
When we built our vacation place in 2005, we deliberately opted for vinyl siding. The "look" we were going for was "New England Seaside Cottage", including grey, clapboard siding. (To get a look, go to www.UnderTheYulanSun.com.) We considered wood shingles, but the cost and maintenance factors made us reconsider.
I may be biased, but I feel our place has tons of charm and, if it were on the market, would easily fit the description you talk about here, vinyl siding and all. Likewise, just because a house has only one story (ours is a two-story cape) and can be labeled a "ranch" doesn't mean it can't be charming. Remember that the architectural definition of "cottage" usually pertains to a one-story house.
My point is that just because a house has vinyl siding or only one story doesn't necessarily mean it's a dog. Sure, there a gazillion vinyl-clad and/or one-story homes that aren't worth a second look... but there are also many that go against the stereotype. In a similar vein, think of all the people out there who would never consider Sullivan County as a place to live or purchase based solely on a misinterpreted reputation... they certainly would be missing out, no?
And hey... you can always change out vinyl siding in favor of an upgrade, right?

[Chris L]

What about the Listing # 20166, Looks like just what you looking for. Care to comment?

[David Knudsen]

3 very different comments here for me to respond to.

First, Tony, regarding the ongoing dismal national housing sales data, whether pending or closed, it still comes down to local markets. Most, but not all, markets are performing poorly relative to the peaks of a year ago. There are significant regional differences. Nationally, May's Pending Home Sales Index is down -3.5% from April, but in the northeast its up 3.8%. On a year over year basis, May 2007 is down -13.3% over May 2006, but in the northeast the drop is less, -9.6%. Here in Sullivan County, when I post June's sales data, we'll be showing a 29% drop in year over year sales. We've been running down, year over year, in that 20% to 30% range for a few months now. But even with that significant drop in sales, prices are holding — and what I'm finding is that demand is very strong in some categories and much weaker in others.

Nest Dweller, its not a question about what I personally think about vinyl siding, its what buyers think about it. I agree its certainly much easier care, and a lot of the new vinyls look quite nice. I built my house with clapboard 5 years ago, and I'm just about due for repainting, and on a pure 'care' basis, I would certainly reconsider my decision. But among many second home buyers, particularly the younger 30 something group, "authentic", or the perception of "authentic" is a huge factor. I go out with dozens and dozens of potential buyers, and have a pretty good idea of what goes in their plus column and what doesn't. Vinyl siding is just something, like paneling, that is often perceived as a negative.

And finally, Chris, thanks for the heads up on that lising. I just didn't notice it because I don't really do much around Wurtsboro. The area before the Wurtsboro Hill is outside of the market area I handle.

[Connie Lipay]

The one big problem with Sullivan County is the real estate tax cost by crazy assessed values. It seems the local towns punish you for building any thing nice or of good quality. Comments made when you complain are well if you can afford to build the house you can afford to pay the taxes or you're told well your house is worth more so you should pay more in taxes, am I going to get a yearly income every year from the real estate value, no only if I sell, well what if I live there until I die, I would pay an excessive amount and for what. So the town encourages modular homes or double wides or keep your house in disrepair or do the bare minimum and we'll charge you less in taxes. But if you are not from the area lets bang you in taxes cause you can afford it. Why are alot of homes done in vinyl siding because it seems the assessed value is less than if you do wood or stone.
It seems that real estate taxes on some new custom homes are more than our mortgages and what extra services do I get, take my own garbage to the dump that is only open Wednesday and saturday and I have to put it in all the different containers fighting the crowds.
Real Estate taxes are a forever expense and as we get older its harder to come up with the high cost. If you want more quality homes in the area, more energy efficent and enviromental friendly homes stop discouraging new contruction, I've been listening to alot of my friends and co workers who would like to move upstate but the cost is becoming to much. I am originally from the area born and raised, my entire family is there, I want to come home and raise my children upstate but I refuse to live in a box so we have considered going to PA where the cost are more reasonable. Please tell me things are going to change, but I can't afford real estate taxes in excess of $8000.00 a year only to keep going up.

[John Beck.]

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