Definitely Busier - All Booked This Weekend

Buyer interest definitely picked in the first few weeks of January. I think most of us in the business here were holding out breath after the New Year, waiting to see if the typical mid-winter market developed or fizzled. This weekend (a 3 day holiday weekend), I'm booked every day and so are my 2 colleagues at CBA. On Friday, I had to turn a couple of folks away who wanted to out and see property this weekend, and I've had a number of people already request appointments as far as mid-February.

There are some differences, though, between this winter spurt and last year. Almost everyone I'm seeing looking for a vacation home is shopping at a moderate price point, between $200,000 and $300,000. I'm seeing very, very few requests above that. There's tremendous pressure on the inventory priced below $300,000 and its leading to a real inventory shortage of attractive properties in that range. (A number of favorites in this price range that have been on the market for months now have deals on them.) There's quite a bit of attractive inventory priced around $400,000, but I'm just not seeing many buyers at that price point, and definitely not seeing the $300K buyer willing to stretch or even look into the upper $300's and low $400's.

The other BIG difference I'm noticing this year is that I'm not seeing Wall Street people at all. In the past few years, 30-something financial industry people comprised the lion's share of my upper end business.

Comments

[Chris L]

What about sales. One can have many appointments but is the sales that pay the bills. Do the the shoppers sound serious about buying or just treating it as a weekend trip to the Catskills.

[CP]

Buyers are serious if they find a house they like. Otherwise, it's just a nice roadtrip.

[TR]

...and now we have an article in today's New York Times about a disgruntled buyer who is actully suing their broker about misinformation since the home they bought from him has ...uh-oh! depreciated in value:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/business/22agent.html?_r=1&hp&oref=login

An ugly day ahead - it certainly will not assure consumer confidence.

TR

[TR]

...and 30 minutes after the previous post, the Fed - as an emergency measure - knocks .75 (three-quarters) points off of the Funds Rate and it's now down to 3.75%.

Let's see if that move gives some CPR to the markets.

Excellent 20 year and 30 year fixed home mortgage rates - roll back to 2004-5. Will it jump start housing?

TR

[CP]

Nothing will jump start housing until prices retreat. Without the artificial stimulus of loans to unworthy borrowers, i.e, subprime, we may never see vibrancy of '05/'06 again - which is probably a good thing.

[TR]

...better start reducing your offering prices!

~TR
-----------------------

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/merrill-lynch-says-us-nationwide/story.aspx?guid=%7B113721E5%2D3D7D%2D4938%2DB5E1%2D44401BD02AA4%7D

Merrill Lynch says U.S. nationwide home prices may fall 30%

By Chris Oliver
Last update: 10:12 p.m. EST Jan. 22, 2008Print RSS Disable Live Quotes

(MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch forecasts nationwide U.S. home prices could decline 25% to 30% over the next three years, as new supply and weak demand weigh on the market. "This sounds dire... but would only reverse part of the unprecedented 130% price surge from 2000 to 2006," wrote economist David Rosenberg in a research note released Wednesday. Rosenberg added the S&P 500 may decline an additional 20% to 25% to breach the 1,100-point level if the market follows historical precedents at times when the U.S. economy is in recession.

[CP]

Honestly, Tony - we are raising our prices, because demand is through the roof, and honestly, our prices have been too low.

[Chris L]

Check this out

http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080123/BIZ/801230332/-1/BIZ05

[fREDERICK]

oK--WE ARE ALL AWARE OF THE DECLINING PRICES OF NEW AND USED HOMES. ONE, AND THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT THING IS ARE THE PRICES IN THE LUMBERYARDS FOLLOWING SUITE, IF SO BY WHAT %.---FREE DELIVERY--OF COURSE--BETTER SERVICE--OF COURSE. MY QUESTION IF WHERE AND WHOME OF THE lUMBERYARDS ARE GIVING UP AND PULLING THE PLUG. I HAVE NOT HEARD OR SEEN GOING ANY BIG GUYS OUT OF BUSINESS OR OTHER CORPSCORPS. RELATED ANYWHERE.
wHILE I AM AT IT IF THE CAR BUSINESS IS SOOOO BAD WHERE ARE THE ENDING OF THOSE?
DON'T YOU THINK THERE IS MORE THAN A TO DEATH TO WRITE THE DEAL AS WELL AS THE MORTGAGE COS.LITTLE FLOOR-PLAN DEALS AND REBATES TO DEALERS TO ONCE AGAIN TO SELL SELL SELL. THE FINANCE COMPANIES ARE BEING CHOCKED SELL SELL SELL. tHE AVERAGE OF LIVINGE OVER OUR MEANS CAME OUT TODAY WE ARE NOE LIVING $2.00 ON A $100,000 OVER OUR MEANS. WE COULD EASILY FIX THAT WITH A LEMONADE STAND(NONTAXBLE) FRANKLY DO NOT KNOW WHO TO BELIEVE ESPECIALLY THE TREASURY---AN INFUSION TO CORRECT THE MARKET. THE BIG GUYS DON'T PLAY WITH THE NYSEG- ONLY FOR FUN. IM I WRONG DO NOT SEE THE REAL PICTURE, IF YOU KNOW WHAT IS REALY GOING I WELCOME ANY AND ALL IDEAS.
THANKS

[Tyler Durden]

Frederick - I could not agree with you more. No, wait, what the fuck are you talking about?!? Truth be told, I'd rather read your comments than watch Chuck and Tony blow smoke up each other's ass just to stroke their own egos...

[Chris L]

Frederick, what ever you are smoking, I want some of it. I tried to read it backwards thinking it might be coded but still can't make any sense out of it.

[CP]

Who is the guy that uses a 'Fight Club' moniker to post on a real estate blog? Comments are always illuminating though. Thoughtful, detailed, incisive, and most importantly, wholly enlightening. Maybe the next post will be disguised as an "Alvin and the Chipmunk' character.

Tony, honestly, I've always liked your ass.