January Market Conditions Report Posted

Happy New Year, everybody. I just finished the January Current Market Conditions report, which includes the year-end Dec. 2007 data for Sullivan County sales. Its a very interesting picture. Sales are down 22% year over year and the average sales price slipped below $200,000 for the first time since March. 2006. But the median sales price, at $165,000, showed a slight pick-up from November's $160,000 mark, and is likely to tick up to $170,000 next month. That's great news, since my fear was that the median would continue down. While the average is dropping, that's more of an indicator of softness in the upper end of the market, and not the bread-and-butter middle.

I'm sure some of the conclusions I'm drawing this month, particularly the differentiation between Wall-Street buyers and non-Wall Street buyers, will generate some controversy on here. That's always welcome. Please check out my Current Market Conditions Report and drop on back to add your comments.

Comments

[Michael]

Thanks for your clear commentary as usual. I am not an expert but it seems like things are just normalizing here. The people who had a get rich quick scheme in mind will have to get realistic and some people will probably have to eat some money they spent frivolously. Hopefully this is just balance manifesting itself, and balance is a good thing.

[Rich Klein]

Well, that stats will likely change now that Dirk Kempthorne has sunk the casino proposals. The County, State, towns and villages, and the business community must now put their heads together -- along with good citizens -- to come up with a true plan for economic revival here. I have some ideas at www.riversidepr.typepad.com.

[Rich Klein]

Well, those stats will likely change now that Dirk Kempthorne has sunk the casino proposals. The County, State, towns and villages, and the business community must now put their heads together -- along with County residents -- to come up with a true plan for economic revival here. I have some ideas at www.riversidepr.typepad.com.

[TR]

{New York Times}

Interior Secretary Rejects Catskill Casino Plans

By ANAHAD O’CONNOR
Published: January 5, 2008

The federal government rejected plans for two casinos in the Catskill Mountains on Friday, saying that the reservations of the two tribes that submitted the plans were too far from where the casinos would be built.

The decision was a major setback in the 30-year effort to bring gambling to Sullivan County, which proponents hoped would breathe new life into the area’s depressed economy. {Balance of article snipped}

Online at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/05/nyregion/05casino.html?em&ex=1199768400&en=d620e074558fd20f&ei=5087%0A

[CP]

David - interesting stats on Chapin, Highlands, and Bethel Farms, the 3 big land development projects.

12/06-12/07 Sales
Chapin - 9 Sales, Average price - $581,000 - $5.2m total.
Highlands - 7 sales, Average price - $130,000 - $700k+ total.
Bethel Farms - No record of any sales.

Even though Chapin has seen much brighter days, its hard to say $5.2m is too shabby. Bethel Farms on the other hand...

Chuck

[Preston]

Hmmm.. falling prices AND falling supply? I wonder if the drop in inventory has anything to do with sellers who were actually short term minded investors withdrawing from the real estate market? The current situation with the banks tightening up on lending due to the subprime debacle will make it more difficult to purchase homes with financing (less incentive to buy). Add to that, a slowdown in appreciation of home prices means that on average home equity heads south (less incentive to sell). The effect is: less buyers and sellers --the RE market is shrinking (or getting more 'right sized').