March Sales Data Coming Soon

Believe it or not, I'm a little behind in getting together the March sales data and analysis because I've been BUSY. Yes, a four letter word I was worried I wouldn't utter this year. BUSY. I've had a full appointment schedule for the last two weekends, the first time that's happened since last fall. Weather certainly plays a part — spring has sprung in the city (although its still a couple of weeks away up here.) Buyers also seem more serious, although of course cautious about value. I've written 2 purchase offers in the last week, one accepted and one in negotiation. That comes after 6 or 7 weeks of nada, nothing, bupkus.

I've taken a peek at the March sales data, and the picture isn't pretty. In March, it looks like there were only 21 closed sales in the Sullivan MLS, down from 63 in March 2007. That's not surprising, given that the phone just wasn't ringing in December and January. The next couple of months are going to be an interesting litmus test.

I should have the full data picture out in a few days.

Comments

[tom fry's ghost]

U gotta love it! McKean is clueless.

http://www.sullivancountyrealestate.com/rm/listings/l0154.shtml

[bubba]

Lakefront?

6.5 acres?

Vacant Land?

Only...$950,000.00?

Calling Chuck!

~bubba

[CP]

I'd buy it for $935k, if it came with a house and 300 acres.

Where the hell is Knudsen's March report? Flying blind here - David- can't gauge how desperate the sellers are.

Interestingly, 2-3 $2m+ chapin waterfront resales have been listed recently.

[TTC]

I'm confused - It is listed as a Chapin Estate property on Swinging Bridge. Is there a Chapin annex on Swinging Bridge? It is not all on Toronto? Also, isn't Swinging Bridge in the Town of Thompson? Is the west side of Swinging Bridge in Bethel??? I assume with a close-to-one-million dollar listing they'd have the facts right.

[Wally Woodchuck]

You ASSUME?

Hee Haw!

...it's Wally!

[Lewis]

It is a true shame that Sullivan County Realtors are using the wrong strategy to create a demand when there is severe shortage of demand, especially for raw land. The correct way to 'create demand' for your product (when demand is negative), is by significant reductions in price to entice buyers. What you have rather, are S.C. realtors influenced by the Sullivan County Board of Realtors to try desparately to ask for the stars to get the moon. Unfortunately, NYC buyers can no longer afford the moon. This will NOT work as we are now entering a severe and protracted recession with housing falling faster than the speed of gamma rays.

8-10 years ago, there was an more established price per acreage for different lands (anywhere from 500-1500 per acre). During the bubble we saw land sell at above 5k per acre for large parcels and even more for smaller parcels. Now the dust must settle before we can figure out where the new price-point will be for land sellers. I have recently come across various large acreage within the county at under $2000 per acre that have still not sold! That is a bargain if you ask me but they have NOT SOLD.

[David Knudsen]

I feel I need to step in here to correct a couple of misconceptions. First, the Sullivan County Board of Realtors doesn't have anything to do, as an organization, with setting prices. That's a matter for individual sellers in consultation with their brokers. There is absolutely no concerted effort to support prices here. In fact, a lot of listing agents I talk with are really frustrated with many of their clients (sellers) because they won't listen to reason about prices. The only leverage a listing agent has is to refuse to take a listing if they consider it too high priced, or resign a listing --- and there really isn't much upside for a listing agent to do either. The cost to take and maintain a listing is pretty minimal, particularly if it doesn't get shown very much and the agent doesn't have to trek out frequently to show the property. Brokers don't set prices, we facilitate a market. If someone puts a high ask on a property, and nobody wants to buy it at that price, it doesn't sell.

Regarding the price of acreage, there is very likely a reason those sub-$2000 per acre parcels don't sell. I've walked a handful of them --- billy goat steep land, land right above a busy highway, land without road frontage, or property with wetlands or something else that severely impacts use or building. Those parcels are only a bargain if they're usable. I don't find much attractive, usable land under $2000 an acre. Same thing with houses --- sure, you can find a 3BR house under $75,000 here, but that doens't mean its a bargain.

[David Knudsen]

TTC, McKean does have the facts right. The western part of Swinging Bridge is in Bethel Township. (The eastern shore is in Thompson.) Regarding the price, there was a lot sale from the developer last year over on Swinging Bridge in the mid or upper $800's. I'm sure the seller has that in mind, and no matter what the listing broker suggested, the seller probably came back with "Yes, but, that other lot sold for ..." I'm not defending the asking price, just making the point that listing brokers often have very little control over it. If it doesn't sell at $950,000, then the seller needs to make some decisions.