The Drive By First Trip

Lots of folks I've been talking to lately are just starting out shopping for a second home, and few have much knowledge of Sullivan County (or the other Catskills counties for that matter). Their wish lists are often diffuse or not really defined beyond minimum numbers of bedrooms and possibly a price range — which is both a blessing and a curse. A blessing because a long and detailed wish list can be difficult to meet, but a curse because a blank canvas opens up a huge number of possibilities. Its kind of like going to Macy's and saying, "I need a new wardrobe."

Helping clients narrow down choices and get to the essence of what they'd like is something I do very well. But it can be very time consuming, particularly because Sullivan County is so large and I can only show only a limited number of houses on a single 4 hour appointment. (I'm hesitant to have longer appointments, because in my experience, when you get up to 5 or 6 hours the houses all start merging into mush in the buyer's mind, and folks start to get a little grumpy even with granola bars.)

It can take two or three trips to hone in on the type of home, setting or location someone would like — lake community, wooded privacy, rolling farmland, area of the county, size and style of house. I do a lot of 180 degree turns with clients as they begin bringing lifestyle into the picture. Then once they have a better definition of what they'd like and where they'd like it, they want to see everything on the market that comes close, which can be another couple of trips.

Its an important process, but not necessarily a very efficient once. The initial stages, in particular, involve a lot of wheel spinning as buyers start to understand the differences between, say, Woodbourne and Narrowsburg, or the tradeoffs in various settings for privacy and seclusion versus convenience to town, the difference between rolling open farmland and more wooded settings or busier roads versus country backroads.

Recently I've had three potential clients who wanted to spend a first trip up just doing drive bys of houses to get a feel for the area and the settings of various houses. It was a great idea. They emailed me listings they'd found on internet searches. I gave them my comments on the ones they found, and suggested some others they might want to include to give them a broader range of examples to consider. Each couple ended up with a list of 15 to 20 houses. I provided them with addresses and directions and suggested a route. They came up and spent the whole day driving around.  Afterwards, they called to talk about the houses,  what they learned, what they liked and what they didn't.  All of them commented on what a great day they'd had, how much information they'd gleaned and how it helped them understand the market better.

In one case, the couple decided that Sullivan wasn't really for them. Another couple narrowed the list of 15 to 20 houses down to 5 they wanted to see on another trip. The third couple (who had very specific setting desires) actually narrowed it down to one.

For the two clients I'll continue working with, I got huge amounts of information from their feedback. Based upon their choices, I can make much more intelligent suggestions of other houses they may want to consider.

From my standpoint, of course, it was a very efficient use of my resources, because I didn't spend a lot of time and gas taking people to places they ultimately wouldn't like. But what was somewhat surprising is how all 3 commented on how much they liked the process. They were on their own schedule, could pace themselves, stop for lunch when they wanted and make detours. One couple noted roads they particularly liked, and took digi-pics of a few houses that really caught their fancy (even though they weren't on the market.)

For first-timers not familiar with Sullivan, a drive-by tour can be a great information gatherer. But its not an approach for everyone. There are some folks I talk with that I know the best first trip is to arrange a "tasting flight", showing 4 or 5 very different houses in their price range to get their reaction to the various factors and trade offs. For others who have a very specific idea in mind, it can be most useful to sample 4 or 5 of the best options within their category.

But for a lot of folks new to Sullivan County, a drive-by day can be a great introduction.

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Update on this thread May 29, 2008: If you're coming to this thread for the first time, the comments below may not make a lot of sense. This thread got totally out of control, with personal attacks. More troubling, though, is that some commenters impersonated other commenters (by using a signature just slightly different than another commenter). I've removed a number of comments on here, but tried to leave the general tone of the thread intact.

Comments

[luigi]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/17662/No-Bottom-in-Sight-Home-Prices-to-Fall-Another-10-15-Says-NYU-Prof?tickers=CFC,WM

No Bottom in Sight: Home Prices to Fall Another 10%-15%, Says NYU Prof
Posted May 19, 2008 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task
Related: CFC, WM
Friday's "stronger-than-expected" home construction data really wasn't so strong. The bulk of April's 8.2% rise came from apartments as single-family home construction hit a 17-year low.
In the accompanying video, I attempt to dig a little deeper under the surface of recent chatter about a "bottom" in housing with, Professor Lawrence J. White, deputy chair of the Economics Department at NYU's Stern School and a former member of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board.

The current downturn is "much more serious" than past housing declines, Smith says, predicting another 10%-15% downside, on average, for national home prices over the next 6-to-12 months before any recover begins.

In other words, the housing market isn't anywhere close to a bottom yet.

[Marv Albert]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080520/newyorkcity_jobs.html

through Reuters

"Imminent" recession may cost NYC 59,400 jobs: study
Tuesday May 20, 12:08 pm ET
By Joan Gralla

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An imminent recession could cost New York City 59,400 jobs between now and the middle of next year, with the profit-stricken financial sector the "epicenter" of the downturn, a new report said on Tuesday.

This would amount to one quarter of the hiring by private employers after the 2001 recession, according to the Independent Budget Office, a fiscal monitor that serves as the city's equivalent of the Congressional Budget Office.

But the previous downturn, which accelerated after the September 11, 2001 attacks, will still turn out to have been more severe, as employers cut about 43 percent of jobs added in the expansion that lasted from 1993 to 2000, the report said.

Although the data are still too ambiguous to determine whether New York City is already in a recession, the report said the "Independent Budget Office is forecasting that a local recession is imminent, if it has not begun already." No recovery is seen until the second half of 2009.

The past few months have seen steadily rising estimates of job losses, from the city and state comptrollers and private and public economists.

The Independent Budget Office's new estimate assumes Wall Street will shed 33,300 jobs -- about 7.1 percent of the sector's employment. This forecast is just a little less than the 36,000 positions this industry cut in the last downturn, according to James Brown, an analyst with the state labor department.

The consequences for New York City could be punishing if reality matches these dire forecasts, as the city's financial sector serves the same role that the auto industry once did for Detroit.

Each job on Wall Street creates another two to three jobs in other industries, from law firms to restaurants. And Wall Street employees earn about 35 percent of all salaries and wages in the city of over 8 million people.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent, has cut spending several times since last autumn and his revised proposal for a $59 billion budget would only increase spending by one-tenth of a percentage point. A mayoral spokesman had no comment.

Like much of the nation, New York City's property owners saw values spike until the real estate market began iceing over. Though the assessed values of apartment and commercial buildings will still rise 3.4 percent this year, partly because these increases are gradually phased in over time, that is quite a drop from the 16.7 percent pop last year.
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=====>OurFarmz<=====
Feed my dream TM

[boone pickums]

I think Dave is right on with this call.

The realtor stays home and e-mails listings with maps - and lets the clients do the drivin' around the county!

Regular unleaded is at $4.05 a gallon - along with New York State home heating oil.

Take a look at the story below.

Certainly will eat up the commissions if you start using the car to show houses.

~boone
=============================

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a79UU6p.il.s&refer=home

Oil for 2016 Delivery Nears $140 on Supply Concern

By Margot Habiby

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices are heading to almost $140 a barrel in the next eight years, according to futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, on concern that growth in supply may fail to keep pace with rising demand.

Oil for delivery in December 2016 surged $17.08, or 14 percent, in the three trading days since Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm by market value, forecast oil would average $141 in the second half of 2008 on constraints in production and a lack of substitutes. Crude for July 2008 climbed 1.9 percent in the same period.

The gain, more than triple the increase in oil for delivery this summer, ``fits in'' with the Goldman forecast which ``talked recently about long-dated crude in particular,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Oil giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc, Chevron Corp., Total SA and ConocoPhillips will spend a record $98.7 billion this year on exploration and production, more than quadruple the amount eight years ago. The supplies they tap from non-OPEC countries will only meet about 20 percent of world demand growth over the next four years.

The struggle to find oil coincides with a boom in demand from places like China and the Middle East, where it will rise 4.9 percent this year, making up for a drop in demand from North America and Europe, the International Energy Agency said in a report May 13. It cut its forecast for global demand for a fourth month.

Saudi Output

``You have had a lot of press, whether from OPEC or other market watchers, calling for significantly higher prices than what we're seeing today,'' said Eric Wittenauer, an energy analyst at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis. ``Those can be proof positive for the higher end of the curve.''

A Saudi Arabian decision last week to increase crude oil output unilaterally in June may not lower prices because speculators are driving the rally, not a supply shortage, Shokri Ghanem, the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., and Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said earlier this week.

The December 2016 futures contract rose $8.40, or 6.5 percent, yesterday to $138.38 a barrel. It was up from $121.30 a barrel on May 15. Goldman raised its oil-price forecast by 32 percent on May 16.

``The move was a big jump in one day for markets that far forward, which also makes it seem as if the market's thin out in those contract months,'' Evans said. Sixty-seven contracts traded, compared with more than 296,000 for the most-active July contract.

Goldman analyst Arjun N. Murti wrote in a report earlier this month that ``the possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months.''

June Price

Front-month futures rose above $129 for the first time yesterday after billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens said that oil will reach $150 a barrel this year because supply isn't keeping up with demand.

Oil for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading at $129.10 a barrel, up 12 cents, at 8:10 a.m. London time.

The contract for June delivery reached $129.60, the highest since futures trading began in 1983, before expiring yesterday. Prices are double that of a year ago. A strengthening of the euro against the dollar added to the gains.

To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

[Reg]

You know, it would be really much more enjoyable to read the comments if you just posted the link without copying and pasting the entire article.

[PNJ]

Sullivan County needs a serious restructuring and economic rethinking to prevent the return of the 1970's depression it experienced. Excessive upwards real property tax assessments in a depreciating housing market is illegal and municipalities will pay for it in the long run by a return to junk yards and lack of home improvement. That will in effect turn away many NYC buyers. Perhaps that is the intention of county officials?

[rose colored glass]

Unsold homes now at a ***23 year*** high.
=========================================

At:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B30AB4390%2DD572%2D41A8%2D9960%2D0A74C2113558%7D

Unsold houses rise to 23-year high in April, realtors say

By Rex Nutting
Last update: 10:00 a.m. EDT May 23

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. housing market weakened further in April, with a flood of homes coming on the market even as sales and prices declined, the National Association of Realtors reported Friday.

Resales of U.S. houses and condos dropped 1% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million from 4.94 million in March.

The inventory of unsold homes jumped 10.5% to 4.55 million. Inventories represented an 11.2 month supply at the April sales pace, the highest since the records began in 1999. For single-family homes alone, the inventory rose to 10.7 months' supply, the highest since 1985. Median sales prices for houses and condos fell to $202,300, down 8% from a year earlier.

[Andy]

There have been various comments about the appropriateness of certain types of posts on this generally wonderful and informative blog. Has anybody ever considered the appropriateness of one builder's persistent use of the blog as a platform to hype its product? I suppose it wouldn't be quite so annoying if the hustling wasn't often accompanied by ridiculous claims, like the recent assertion that one shouldn't object to paying $6,000 or even $7,000 in annual taxes on a new two-bedroom cottage because buyers of existing homes can expect $15,000 "annual" repair bills. What nonsense. Local real estate listings show plenty of very nice 3-BR and even 4-BR homes in beautiful settings that carry taxes of half the amount of these new 2-BR cottages. And of course any decent pre-sale inspection will weed out the few such houses with significant repair needs. Yes, it's a free country and that includes self-promotion, but some of the claims I've seen are really silly.

[dave]

Requiem for a lost river town: What happened to Callicoon?

I finally convinced my wife and daughters that it was high time to get back to Callicoon after trying but failing to gather them together for the approximately 3 hour drive from western Nassau County.

The sleepy town on the river that we fell in love with 2 years ago; the town which you can stand in the center of and practially hear a pin drop while enjoying the cute and quaint little row of stores and eateries on one side of the tracks and the hotel and movie theater (one screen but showing the latest hot movies) on the other...where has it gone?

The down home cooking of the restaurant right across from Klimchok had a Prudential sign in it, closed for biz; the thrift shop became at once rattier and more touristy at the same time, many more cars, bake sales on the side walk...where did the charm go?

Even the lovely big white house at the top of the exit of 17b as you come into town seemed more bleak, hosting today a really cheesy yard sale.

Alas, today my heart for Callicoon has been broken beyond repair. Boy it didnt take long for the secret to get out, and what was a real find is now a real loss.

I wish I could pin down what changed, it just seems now that Callicoon is a place on the way to somewhere else, what with all of the thru traffic that did not exist just a mere 2 years ago.

[Hoss]

Callicoon-on-the-Delaware?

Ummmm...take a look from this recent article:

http://www.sc-democrat.com/news/05May/09/news.htm

Take care pardner,
Hoss.