Livingston Manor in Today's NY Times

Livingston Manor is the featured location in the Havens feature in today's New York Times. (Havens is in Friday's Escapes section.) Online here. Its a nice article that captures the feel of the hamlet and the real estate examples they cite are pretty realistic.

Comments

[J]

...."The Beveridges bought a 100-year-old farmhouse on 120 acres for $300,000 in 1995"...really? That sounds too cheap....

[CL]

That was grossly overpriced for 1995 and overpriced for even 2008.

[Andy]

CL -- are you serious? Where in Sullivan County can you get a property of that description for anything like that price? I mean, even if the house were unlivable, and I don't get the impression from the article that his was the case, if it were fixable and contained a well and septic, plus 120 acres, where are you going to find that for $300K?

[JM]

CL is correct 100%
Most city folk are ignorant to prices...you cannot rely on internet listings....

I have found large tracts of land for around 1-2k per acre all around the county.

141 acres just sold for 250k in Liberty as recorded.
There is a 104 acre parcel in Lew Beech (mary smith rd) for 260k asking, still for sale.
Last year, someone I know bought 92 acres in roscoe for 92K...yes 1k per acre with a stream and flat acreage. 43 acres in woodbourne on benton hollow rd listed by catskills brokers was countered to me 2 years ago for 100K after I offerred 65K.

There are many many more examples....i dont have the time to write. I look at what is recorded at Monticello and Albany, not absurd asking prices. I have seen large land sell for even at 30% of the original asking price.

DO NOT let local realtors make you think there is no land left. The demand is close to zero and the deals are done after long desparate owners cannot secure a buyer.

JM

[Andy]

Dave K, how accurate is JM's post? Is the relationship between actual sales and asking prices this skewed? If so, how does that happen? If it's true, are you routinely advising your buying customers to bid at a fraction of the asking price? I mean, at some point reality has to kick in here -- I find what JM and CL are saying hard to believe in light of listed asking prices, but I don't have any other basis to dispute what they're saying. If what they are saying is true, it seems to me that listing are some huge scam that succeeds in snookering city folk enough of the time to make it wortwhile. And if that's true, how is the buyer's agent helping?

[ranger dick]

=======================
THERE WILL BE GAS!
=======================

http://www.tenmilerivertrader.com/blog/

April 5, 2008
Natural Gas Extraction at TMR
by billmul @ 5:37 pm. Filed under Uncategorized
Found this on the web earlier today.

Bob Madson announced at tonight’s GNYC Camping Committee meeting that they
have a preliminary offer from a firm to extract natural gas from T.M.R.
property. GNYC is guarenteed $3 million to sign the contract and about $1 millon
per year in income over the next 40+ years if gas is found. The operation
would place 30-40 wells at locations all over TMR but away from the operating
camps. A gas pipe would be buried below the Schiff Trail and connect with the
natural gas pipeline which already crosses TMR property near the south end
of Lake Nianque.

Bob said that if this took place it would virtually guarentee that no T.M.R.
property would be sold over the next 40 years.

Here is a bit of background from the River Reporter a local Sullivan County newspaper. Seems there has been a lot of activity on the PA side too.

These independent contractors are asking property owners to sign leases that will allow gas companies to explore for natural gas, which is believed to be beneath the local land mass in large deposits.

According to the experts, there are three main reasons why this is happening.

First, the cost of oil has been steadily rising over the last few years, reaching the unheard of price of $100 a barrel. By contrast, the cost of natural gas from a local well is much cheaper.

Second, geologists are telling the industry that there is evidence that very large deposits of gas are contained in a geological formation called the Marcellus Shale, which extends from Tennessee northward into central and northeastern Pennsylvania, including Wayne County, and the Southern Tier of New York State, including Sullivan County.

Third, new drilling techniques, principally developed by Halliburton, called horizontal drilling, can now recover gas deposits that were unrecoverable a short time ago.

If this pans out (to mix metaphors), it would help to maintain the camp for years to come.

[r.dobbs]

Andy

"Snookering" is a mild description of what is going on. City folk are easy prey. If you think differently, you are in trouble. It was, is, and will always be about money.

[David Knudsen]

Andy, I'm not really a raw land person so don't track it as closely. But there are a lot of factors that affect the price of land. Buildability, attractiveness of the parcel, whether its been logged, amount of road frontage, location, proximity to services, etc. I'm sure you can find land for a couple of thousand an acre, just like you can find a house for $50,000 or even less. Talking about land sales without an understanding of the particular piece of property is kind of absurd. Though I would agree that I think prices for large tracts are under greater pressure if they're not in the gas lease target areas (i.e. eastern county) because developers, for the most part, are out of the picture.

I also gotta say that the tone some people take on here that brokers are out to snooker people borders on insulting. Most brokers I know are hard working and honest. We essentially facilitate a market, but ultimately its buyers and sellers that make it. The disclosure requirements that brokers must follow in New York State under the state's licensing law are pretty stiff. On raw land, we have an obligation to disclose any issues that would have a material impact on the property, such as the implications of limited or no road frontage (R.O.W. access), the potential of the NYRI power line route or the Millennium pipeline, wetlands that would impact buildability and on and on and on. A number of brokers I know have resigned listings because the sellers instructed them to not disclose a negative material factor. I'm sure there are some shady brokers, just like there are shady doctors, lawyers, accountants and engineers. But the vast majority aren't. This view that somehow were a profession with its number one priority to lead ignorant city lambs to financial slaughter is insulting. Remember, we don't set prices --- sellers do.

[dora]

dave - thanks for coming to our defense - it's funny the persistent posts that assume successful city slickers are ignorant and non-informed. I guess we all just got lucky in our day jobs. I know when I buy something I don't do any research, don't know how to compare properties and areas, don't know how to use the internet to compare products and prices - in fact, all I do is believe what people tell me.

[BLT]

The land prices listed above are incorrect. Good land at $4500 an acre (for large acreage purchases)would be considered a good buy at the moment (although it's hard to come by at that price) - which is 2004 pricing for prudent raw land purchases - although many developers paid more, momentarily pushing up prices for everyone. Although there is a lack of buyers so it's possible prices are soft, regardless of listed price. 3-6 acres building parcels have dropped from $65k+ to $48k-.

[JM]

Here is a sample of public information of recent closed sales as recorded in Albany and Monticello:

02/08 $ 250,000 LENAPE LAKE RD
Youngsville Buyer: Alesci, Pietro Acres: 141
Parcel ID: 15.-1-22
School Dist: Liberty
Assessment: 71300
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Twin Oaks Rod And Gun, Club

03/08 $ 350,000 BAILEY LAKE RD & FRASER R
Monticello Buyer: Estate Kutsher, Milton Acres: 339.9
Parcel ID: 9-1-7
School Dist: Monticello
Assessment: 638600
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Bresler, Jonathan

02/08 $ 50,000 499 CHURCH RD,MAJESTIC RD 84
Fallsburg Buyer: Putre, Henry Acres: 54
Parcel ID: 59-1-22.1
School Dist: Fallsburg
Assessment: 65000
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Giaquinto, John

02/08 $ 100,000 PINE KILL RD
Wurtsboro Buyer: Allen, Stanley Paul Acres: 48.9
Parcel ID: 65.-1-3.6
School Dist: Port Jervis
Assessment: 177500
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Rampe, Christopher

01/08 $ 23,000 SHANDELEE RD
Buyer: Horak, Joseph Acres: 93.8
Parcel ID: 4.-1-23.9
School Dist: Livingston Manor
Assessment: 57000
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Curry, James S

12/07 $ 49,200
Buyer: Dept Of Environmental, Conservation & The Acres: 77
Parcel ID: 49.-1-21.9
School Dist: Monticello
Assessment: 55100
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Lazar, Joan D

11/07 $ 115,000 BEAVER KILL RD
Buyer: Hundred Acre Wood A Llc, Acres: 202.8
Parcel ID: 17-1-11.1
School Dist: Livingston Manor
Assessment: 47800
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Johnson Hill Associates, Inc.

11/07 $ 75,000 LITTLE RD
Buyer: Desimone, Stephen Acres: 25.1
Parcel ID: 59-1-15
School Dist: Fallsburg
Assessment: 31100
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Colombi, Daniel & Lorraine

11/07 $ 149,000 RTE 42
Buyer: Kooistra, Kenneth J Acres: 40
Parcel ID: 38-1-13
School Dist: Port Jervis
Assessment: 40221
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Trigani, Frank & Mary Louis

11/07 $ 60,000 LILY POND RD
Parksville Buyer: Eisenberg, Lawrence D Acres: 159.5
Parcel ID: 1-1-22.1
School Dist: Liberty
Assessment: 120100
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Klugman, Lewis

11/07 $ 390,000 ALLEN RD
Buyer: Cusimano, Salvatore Acres: 159
Parcel ID: 15-1-2
School Dist: Ellenville
Assessment: 85900
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Clark, David A

11/07 $ 310,000 PINE KILL RD/OLD WBRKVLL
Wurtsboro Buyer: Chen, David T & Youmi Acres: 100
Parcel ID: 53-1-17.1
School Dist: Port Jervis
Assessment: 67300
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Thelander, Jean

11/07 $ 6,000 BACK SHANDELEE RD
Livingston Manor Buyer: Cuggino, James & Carol Acres: 27.23
Parcel ID: 44.-1-11.3
School Dist: Livingston Manor
Assessment: 89600
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Baviello, Lucia & Michael &

10/07 $ 165,000 NYS ROUTE 97
Buyer: Mc Cabe, Terence Acres: 112.69
Parcel ID: 24.-1-1
School Dist: Sullivan West
Assessment: 113400
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Choi, Young Tai

09/07 $ 39,000 OBERNBURG RD
Hankins Buyer: Armbrust, David Acres: 36.5
Parcel ID: 17-1-14
School Dist: Sullivan West
Assessment: 39000
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Exec Twaddell, Irma

[johnson]

wow, prices are back to 1923 levels. who would have thought the recession was so serious?

[J]

David,

Not sure what the particulars are for the parcels that JM listed above but I do know that land in Delaware County (further away from NYC) is still steady. I know for a fact that a 36 acre piece on my road sold for $150,000 ($4,166/acre). The piece has a 6 acre meadow and the balance wooded, nice view, on a town-maintained road, not far from amenities. There are also plenty of listings at $10,000/acre (and some over $30,000/acre). The $300M of funds allocated by NYC for their land acquisition program has totally changed the supply/demand equation in Delaware County. I am not sure of their presence in Sullivan County - comments?

[SM]

Market drop has been delayed in Delaware county but is already catching up. In my opinion anything more than 1000-2000 per acre is way over priced in Delaware. As far as J states above, that there are listings for 10`000 to 30`000K, thats real far out there. Not even in Orange county are they selling for that amount. Sellers could ask for any amount but doesn't mean they will get it.
The NYC land acquisition program in Delaware county has not had any significance in supply and demand there since all of the properties that are of intrest to NYC DEP are properties adjacent to their reservoir and are very steep uninhabitable lands.
Potential buyers who found Sullivan county to be way over priced found better value in Delaware, thats what drove the market there, nothing else.

[JM]

Dave is entirely correct when it comes to raw land that there is an obligation and need to disclose any issues that would have a material impact on the property.

I know of one example of 113 acres in Fallsburg that was for sale last year. This land was used as a land-fill back in the 1970's. Uncles of mine used to hunt the surrounding lands and remember hundreds of old appliances, tires and various other garbage being deposited by the truck loads. Imagine drilling a well and drinking that water? It was later back-filled and no one would ever know what lies below the 3 feet of top soil today.
The realtor had no idea when she was told and was quite hostile with me, "if you know something I don't, prove it to me". BE WARE.

[Mr. Marcellus Shale]

Yo! C'mon homeboys.

Let's get back to the question of the Marcellus Shale!

Land HO!

Mr. Shale

[J]

To SM: I beg to differ on your comment that NYC does not have an impact on supply/demand. It is estimated that NYC intends to buy 15,000 acres/yr over the next 10 yrs to protect the watershed.

[JM]

J,

NYC Land Acquisition Program does not just buy any and all land anywhere upstate, NY.
The NYC DEP is only interested in land that has streams, brooks, creeks or rivers which may drain into NYC resevoirs. NYC is not interested in buying land in Hancock or Sullivan County. NYC is however interested in buying land in Neversink, where pollution can affect the water supply in that resevoir. For the most part, they are more inclined to buy land that resides north of the resevoirs. Sullivan county is mostly south of them. The Neversink is the only one. David can tell you that Neversink is not high on the list in demand for 2nd home buyers.

Furthermore, the most they pay for land is around 3-4k per acre if really close to the resevoir. Usually, they offer around 1-2k per acre for desirable land they wish to acquire. It must be raw land without a dwelling.

[J]

JM,

Yes I said NYC Watershed. Most of the available land would be in Delaware County. Rising land prices there could help values overall in Sullivan (relative value). Anycase, the City bases its offer on appraised values. Should appraisels decline then their offers will decline. Conversely, if market rises so will their offers. One has to take into account they are the 800 lb gorilla up there so essentially they are the market. I have seen several of their official offer letters and I can tell you their offers were substantially more than the figures you referenced. One can also sell conservation easements to the City which are usually about half the appraised value. If you have timber/blustone then you have another potential income source. Not to mention the recreational aspects of owning land. Not all land is created equal and would imagine there is plenty of land that I wouldn't pay a dime for but $1-2K/acre as a rule of thumb is not realistic today. You can't buy recreational land in Kansas for that.

[manhattan]

dora honey,

If you were a successful city slicker you wouldn't be buying in Sullivan County...especially in Chapman estates. Just ask Bressler or Brutcher what they think. Give it a year. A reality check is coming up in 2009. You haven't lived long enough to know what bad times are.
Soon, you won't be seeing those $899,000 lots for sale.
Patience, honey. Municipal revenue shortfalls are coming.

[SM]

J, you obviously are not up to date on the current market. Land prices are going south, there's no demand. 3000-4000K a year or two ago during the bubble was realistic, under 1000K per acre in the next few years may very well be a reality in Delaware.

Again, NYC DEP buys very steep undesirable land that the general public doesn't think twice about, so who are they competing against?

P.S.
I wouldn't start taking out trees and bluestone, it may very well drop the price to 500 per acre not to mention fines from DEP if your in the watershed.

[marie]

Why wouldn't 2nd home buyers be interested in Neversink?