Current Market Conditions Up with July Data

I finally finished the August Current Market Conditions report (with July's closing data.) Some real interesting stuff this month that I'm still pondering. Sales plateaued (hey, that's Realtor-talk for 'flat') at 105 for the previous 3 month period, about equal with the June number but up from the miserable, why-don't-I-just-slit-my-wrists 86 sales for the 3 months ending in April. The median price, though, rose again for the 2nd month --- and I expect August's price numbers to climb higher, based on sales in contract but not yet closed. And buyer activity seemed to pick-up starting in mid to late July. The cloud moving over these brightening skies? Mortgage rates are way up.

Check out this month's Market Conditions Report and come on back here and add your comments. I have a feeling the back and forth this month will be pretty lively!

Comments

[Mal]

David, your report mentions your new perspective on inventory, pointing out that today's relatively lower sales volume means that the available inventory will take longer to sell, even if the inventory itself doesn't seem to have grown alarmingly. That's a good point. When one thinks of a backlog of inventory, the usual assumption is that new listings will be in competition with them, forcing prices even lower. But a large proportion of current listings are so unrealistically priced that buyers are not considering them at all. Many listings have actually languished in the MLS for a year or more, sometimes being renewed, but with little or no price adjustment. They were apparently noncompetitive even last summer! How serious are these sellers? Is this unusual in past experience in Sullivan county? In addition, as you pointed out in your report, sales are quite brisk in some segments and deathly slow in others. Excess inventory may be particularly relevant for higher end homes when the market finally recovers. In that price bracket many sellers seem to be waiting in the wings for a market recovery. Owners of currently listed higher end homes should seriously consider dropping their prices significantly now before competition forces them to do it later.

One other comment: I wonder if you meant 2004/2005 when you wrote: "In 2005/2006, there were about 700 houses on the market at any given time". From late summer 2005 through 2006 I believe inventory exceeded 900 continuously, with a median of about 1000.

[Anne Lipke]

Dave,
Do you sell in Lumberland?

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story is online at:

http://www.sc-democrat.com/news/08August/12/news.htm

{Town of Lumberland} LiGreci sees bright future with gas drilling

Editor’s Note: The following Q&A represents the second in a periodic series focusing on the organizations that have rallied to promote, oppose, learn about, negotiate with, and regulate the locally burgeoning natural gas industry.

Save for a brief introduction, the format for each article will be question-and-answer, allowing these groups to speak for themselves.

If you have a recommendation for a group we should interview, feel free to contact Editor Frank Rizzo or Senior Staff Writer Dan Hust at 845-887-5200 or editor@ sc-democrat.com.

By Dan Hust
GLEN SPEY — Though he’s head of the county’s Association of Town Supervisors, John LiGreci is first and foremost the supervisor of the Town of Lumberland.

And while the association has urged townships and the state to get tough on gas drilling, LiGreci himself is not actually that worried about the industry’s entrance into Sullivan County.

Q: How do you feel about the prospect of gas drilling?
A: The Town of Lumberland is concerned about drilling but not afraid of it. We’re concerned but not afraid because of the opportunity it brings.

Q: So what are you doing to prepare for this opportunity?
A: I don’t think Lumberland is ready to enact a moratorium, because we haven’t found anything negative about the impacts. The DEC [NYS Dept. of Environmental Conservation] thinks it’s safe.

Q: So you’re not worried about potential environmental damage, say with open pits of water used in the hydrofracturing process?
A: In New York, it’s mandated that you have to truck the water in and, after you use it, truck it out immediately.
The positive is that people could make money off of their properties, though I strongly recommend they get a very good gas attorney.

Q: Are you looking to regulate gas drilling in Lumberland?
A: We changed our [mining] laws about 4-5 years ago. Our town was growing, and we were trying to be very careful what we allow and what we don’t allow.
So we already have laws to deal with that, since drilling and mining in the earth are the same system. We will impose our bonding [for road damage] and [property] setbacks on that drilling.
The way state law reads, it seems to indicate [we can do] that, although it is questionable whether a local law could enact a bond or demand infrastructure fees for damage.
The law does say, however, that we can tax them at a higher rate [if they do not pay those fees].
... I believe the state will enact regulations to give us an opportunity to enact regulations to make the county and town’s laws stronger.

Q: Do you know of any Lumberland property owners who are negotiating leases?
A: Not at this point, but we are definitely part of the action.

[Klein]

America needs a 'Good Depression'
Seven reasons a 'good' depression beats a new Great Depression

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/seven-reasons-america-needs-good/story.aspx?guid=%7BE8E9E137-3375-41D0-9601-FA4D14601140%7D

[David Knudsen]

Mal, you're right. The inventory was 700-ish in early 2005, then starting in the summer climbed into the 900 range, and settled in over the winter of 05/06 at about 1,000.

[Bix]

I pity anybody trying to get a mortgage on one of those high priced houses that haven't been selling, where comps are nonexistent. I went through hell with my mortgage on a much lower priced house. I eventually got it, but it was a close shave.