Sullivan Second Home Owner Study Released

The Sullivan County Dept. of Planning and Environmental Management undertook a major study of second home owners in Sullivan County this year. They released the results last week. You can get the synopsis or the full study at http://www.scgnet.us/index.asp?orgid=572&storyTypeID=&sid=&

The study is very thorough, well done — and very interesting. They sent out 10,085 surveys, to every second home owner they could identify in the county, and received 1,377 responses — a very good response rate of 13.6%. The survey methodology alone answers a major question I've had — just how much of the housing stock in Sullivan County is second homes. According to Wikipedia, there were 44,730 housing units in Sullivan County in the 2000 census. 10,035 is 22.5% of the total housing units. Of course, that's not a totally accurate number, because new homes have been built since 2000. But overall, its probably safe to say that about a quarter of the houses in Sullivan County are second homes, which is a little less than that I've thought.

There's a lot of data in the study's 41 pages, and even more to pore through if you're a data junkie and want to pore through the raw data in the appendices. There were some surprising statistics and conclusions. First, second home owners (SHO's) turned out to be older than I thought, with 64% 55 or older. Only 9.8% of respondents were between 35 and 44, the group I've seen growing in second home purchases over the last few years. 55% of SHO's were in the "older baby boomer" group between 45 and 64.

One thing I found very surprising is that the median length of second home ownership here is 16 years. I thought it would be less. But my perception is skewed because I deal with new buyers far less than existing home owners, and in some parts of the county, like the older lake developments, many of those houses have been passed down in families for generations. Deep within the study, though, is a very interesting chart that tallies length of ownership by township, and the comments a trend among newer buyers to the western (river) and northern townships. In 3 townships — Rockland, Delaware and Tusten — 50% or more of SHO's reported they have owned their second homes for 10 years or less, compared with 38% in Thompson and 32% in Mamakating. One cross-tab I've be very interested in is the age of the newer second home buyers. The study broke out age by second home owners, but its my feeling that new buyers are younger than current owners, and that particularly the western and northern townships have attracted a younger demographic.

Another interesting section dealt with the factors influencing the decision to purchase a second home in Sullivan County. I've always thought that "affordability" relative to other second home markets would top the list or at least come close. However, affordability came in at eigth place, with only 28% of respondents listing it as a factor. The #1 reason? Scenery and surroundings, followed by geographic location (which largely can be translated as proximity to NYC and the NJ suburbs.)

There's a lot of meat on this plate, more than I can cover in a blog post. Go grab the survey and give it a read. There's a lot of information about SHO's perception of services, property taxes, zoning and code enforcement, as well as some lengthy discussion about the demographic differences (particularly education and income level) between primary and second home owners.

I'd like to offer my congratulations and thanks to Dr. Pammer, the county's Commissioner of Planning and Environmental Management and his staff for putting together this great tool.

Comments

[Jeff Milton]

The survey reinforces my stance that the majority of existing second home-owners are baby-boomers or older while the majority of those seeking a second home are younger.

Given retirement by the masses is on the horizon and a severe, protracted recession inevitable, baby boomers will be liquidating in increasing levels over the coming years. As salaries continue to fall, deficits engorge and listings increase, quantum physics is not neccessary to understand the wave of the future.

[DN]

To me, it would be much more surprising if the majority of existing second-home owners were younger and those seeking a second home were older. Where is that pattern typical?

[Jackie]

David,
You should have the blog allowing people to create a new tread on readers' desired topics.
Just a suggestion...

[Dr. William Pammer]

We appreciate the comments in reference to the second home study. It was an extensive data enterprise and something we want to continue at least every five years. If I may, I would like to offer a few responses to the observations made here to generate some more dialogue on this important topic and sector in the county.

It was asked in the one of the comments where is there a pattern typical in the U.S. with the majority of existing second-home owners being younger and those seeking a second home were older. If you are assuming "younger" to be less than 55-60, nationally we do not see that as typical. Baby Boomers, on the average, are driving the second home market national-wide--this includes "younger" Baby Boomers (55-64) and "older" Baby Boomers (65+). The critical long term observation regarding these groups is as they age, coupled with perhaps losing a spouse and declining health, there is a higher probability that they will sell their second homes.

The key question is: Can younger cohorts, which will be smaller than the Baby Boomer cohorts, enter the second home market and keep it vibrant? This question is not meant to bring panic but help us think strategically to attract future buyers to this area. My recommendation is to read the "Emerging Trends" sections of the report and "Recommendations" and offer a discussion on these chapters and feedback as we want your thoughts on this. Furthermore, this study should be used a "thinking tool" to assist with long-term marketing approaches.