Sullivan County Real Estate

Another Blog to Check Out

A rare animal is a well written, opinionated real estate blog, but an article in yesterday's Sunday Times New York section (The Bigger Houses Are, The Harder Prices Fall) about real estate in Greenwich, CT, turned me on to Christopher Fountain's blog, "For What Its Worth." Christopher isn't shy about about opinions on his local market, and his approach is refreshing. If you like this blog, Christopher's is also worth checking out.

Good Time to Buy?

In the post below (Cochecton in UK article), someone commented that "... real estate folks ... always tend to believe anytime is the time to buy." Its understandable that us Realtors would have that sentiment, because making sales is, after all, the way we pay the bills and put food on the table. But I find that I, too, have a similar reaction when my colleagues say "now is a great time to buy" without being able to give me real reasons "Why?"

Whenever I hear that from colleagues, I always ask "Why?", and generally they can't give me any solid reasons. Often the response is, "Well, prices are good now and may well be higher in the spring." I don't think there's any way of knowing if prices have bottomed out, given the economy, and its very doubtful we're going to see a spring buying surge that's going to push prices markedly up.

Personally, I don't think "now" is necessarily a "bad" time or a "good" time to buy, depending on what you're looking for, the deal you can strike, and your financing parameters. Mortgage money is pretty cheap right now if you qualify, and there are some sellers who are looking to strike a deal and get out of their houses. I think that 'good' or 'bad' is going to be on a house by house, opportunity by opportunity basis. Florida has been in the real estate doldrums for going on two years now. The 'market' hasn't bottomed out into an even plateau of coast to coast good deals, but there are good deals to be had.

Just like in stocks, it will be very difficult to time the bottom of the market, and different types of properties may "bottom out" at different levels and different times. You just need to keep your eyes and ears open. A $450,000 3 bedroom lakefront house on Swinging Bridge could be a great deal, while a $699,000 one probably isn't — and both could be on the market at the same time next month or in six months.

SC Realtor Food Drive

Sullivan County Realtors have organized a food drive for this coming holiday season. Non-perishable food items can be dropped off anytime between now and December 12th (to allow time for distribution before the holidays). There are seven drop off points at Realtor office throughout the county:

Paris Realty & Associates, 151 E. Broadway, Monticello, NY (845) 796-2005, 10-5pm.Before or after hours, please leave on front porch.

Elliot & Pomeroy, 2 locations: 1924 Route 17, Roscoe, NY 12776 (607) 498-5222 10-4 weekdays or 10-3 OR 36B Main Street, Livingston Manor, NY 12758 (845) 439-3660 10-4 weekdays or 10-3 weekends, after hours please leave on front porch

Malek Properties, 10 Waldheim Road (off Rt. 17B), White Lake, NY 12786 (845) 583-6333 Hours 10-5 after hours please leave on front porch

Century 21 Lanza, 2979 Route 209, Wurtsboro, NY 12790 (845) 888-5221 Hours 10-5pm  

Prudential Peters Realty, 5 Triangle Road, Liberty, NY 12754 (845) 292-6333 10-5 or leave at front door 

Matthew J. Freda Real Estate 21 Lower Main Street, Callicoon, NY 12723 (845) 887-5640 for hours

Here are some items to consider and please, no perishables (please check expiration dates):

Canned tuna fish, chicken, turkey, ham, salmon, and meat based soups.

Peanut butter

Canned fruits, vegetables, juices, evaporated or powered milk,

Assorted pastas, rice, dry beans, cereals

Personal hygiene items such as, soap, toothpaste, shampoo, toothbrushes, toilet paper, paper towels, diapers, facial tissues.

Anything you can bring by would be much appreciated!!!

Cochecton Makes UK's Guardian

Thanks to Michael McSweeney for forwarding this on. A friend of his in the UK noticed this article in the Guardian about an NYC couple who renovated a little house in Cochecton, right here in lil 'ole Sullivan County. The article really captures why so many city folks have chosen Sullivan County as their getaway. Definitely worth a read.

Art Market Parallel?

"All Things Considered" on National Public Radio had a piece, Economic Concerns Affect Art Market, on this Wednesday's broadcast that I thought had some very interesting parallels to real estate, particularly the second home market. When I was listening to the piece, I kept substituting "real estate" for "art", and it seemed to make tremendous sense. It's worth a listen.

Two Adorables

I know a lot of folks aren't quite in the mood right now to buy a house. But I figure that even if you don't want to eat right now, I can still try to tempt you with some tasty nibbles. There are two houses that have come on the market recently that I think are just adorable. (Click here to see the two listings.) One is over on Midway near White Sulphur Springs that was on the market a year or so ago, and I was kind of sad when it went off the market, because it was my favorite "affordable" range farmhouse to show. We'll, it back on and at $179,000. The second house is a renovation of a 1930's Craftsman on Plank Road in Mongaup Valley, within walking distance to a public access point for Swinging Bridge reservoir. Earlier this year I sold a house behind this one, and every time I drove past this house, I always thought, "What an adorable house. They are doing such a nice renovation."

Chesapeake Teams Up for Marcellus Play

It's been pretty quiet on the gas drilling front, what with the severe downturn in natural gas prices and the economic crisis that have pummeled natural gas company stocks like Chesapeake and Cabot. New leasing activity came virtually to a standstill in the last month, with lease offers being pulled off the table. But that doesn't mean that gas drilling is dead.

There is an interesting piece today on Yahoo!Finance about Chesapeake selling a 32.5% stake in its Marcellus Shale holdings to Norwegian energy company Statoilhyrdro for $3.375 billion. Statoilhydro will pay "$1.25 billion of the amount in cash at closing and $2.125 billion from 2009 to 2012 by funding 75 percent of Chesapeake's share of drilling and completion expenditures."

It is important to keep in mind that Chesapeake's Marcellus lease holdings extend from New York through Pennsylvania to Ohio and West Virginia, with only a small proportion. So the lion's share of $2+ billion from Statoilhydro for drilling and completion expenditures will likely be spent outside of New York.

Current Market Conditions Posted with October Data

Well, folks, I finally got the Current Market Conditions report posted with the October sales data. I've been struggling with this one for a few days, writing it, setting it aside, reading it and then rewriting it. The picture looks pretty bright from the data, with sales up 13% from September. But this is closed sales data for the period ending Oct. 31st, and almost all of the sales reflected deals that were made prior to Sept. 15th, the date of the Lehman bankruptcy and the ensuing economic crisis. So it's really tough to base any trend predictions on that, because I think consumer behavior has radically shifted in the last 7 weeks.

There is a very interesting factor I culled from the data. It appears that the second home sector, as a percentage of the total sales, is shrinking, to 32% of total sales for the 3 months ending Oct. 31 2008 from 44% for the same period in 2006. It's somewhat of a judgement call, based on categorizing each sale for both periods as either second home or primary/investor on some qualitative factors. I'd love to get folks thoughts on that.

Please check out this month's Current Market Conditions Report and drop on back to leave your thoughts or comments.

New and Notable

There have been a number of very attractive and well priced new listings come on the market in the last month. I've selected a few favorites you may want to check out, ranging in price from $185,000 to $699,000. (In the listings that come up when you click the link, the house at left is MLS 24791 priced at $275,000.)

While the "New and Notables" includes new listings I've noticed, there are a number of other really great listings on the market. Right now, there's a nice selection of farmhouses and classic charmers, like 40's era capes, ranging in price from about $200,000 (for a smaller house on less than an acre) to $799,000 for a lovely 5 bedroom wrap porch farmhouse on 172 acres with a pond listed in the MLS, plus a few others that aren't MLS-listed. For the first time in years, I'm excited because there are a number of good houses in each price range from $200K to $800K to show buyers looking for something in the 'country classic' genre. It doesn't feel like too much inventory, though, although there is enough competition that sellers do need to be on their game to attract a buyer.

On the other hand, lakefront property continues to be very sparse, with very few new listings coming on the market. That's not so surprising, because lakefront listings tend to be more seasonal. I tend to find that with lakefront homes, whatever is going to listed in a given year is on the market by the end of September.

The Perils of Overpricing

This past Sunday there was a little article in the NY Times Real Estate section that you might have overlooked: No Time For Wishful Pricing. Although the article focuses on Westchester County, it illustrates a lesson that sellers here in Sullivan might want to take to heart. The article confirms what I've often thought, that in this market, houses that are very well priced when they first come to market do better and move faster than houses that come to market overpriced and work their way down, in fits and starts, to "well priced". That first couple of weeks on market is so important, and it tends to be when a house gets most noticed. I know when I see a new listing come on the market that's "Wow Priced", I send it out right away, even to clients who might not be looking for that particular type of house. I don't tend to have the same get-up-and-go response to a price reduction, although some price drops do get my juices flowing.