Sullivan County Real Estate

Inventory Drops Below 1,000

The inventory of single family homes for sale listed in the Sullivan MLS just dipped below 1,000, to 998 homes on the market, just about equal to the 993 homes on the market at the beginning of January this year. While the "raw" inventory may not be climbing, with sales dropping, it does translate into about a 2 to 2 1/2 year inventory at an annual sales rate of 400 to 500 houses. The sales rate a year ago was running about 600 to 700 houses a year.

A lot of the buyers I'm working with recently have the perception that the market downturn has resulted in a surge of new inventory coming on the market — and that every few weeks there will be a whole new selection of houses to look at. But that's just not the case. In fact, "discretionary sale" inventory (houses, particularly second homes, that the owners don't have to sell) seems to be constricting. Some listings haven't been renewed when they expired, others have been withdrawn. There are also 96 houses in "Temporarily Off Market" status, which means that the listing is still technically in effect, but the house isn't being actively shown or marketed. Some of these have been shifted for the time being to rentals. The owners have others have decided not to bear the expense over the winter of keeping them plowed out and accessible.

Between January and December, the median asking price has dropped 6.5% to $215,000, while the average asking price has fallen less than 2%, to $286,189.

Mortgage Rates Drop Below 5%

Over the last day, mortgage rates for conforming, fixed 30 year loans have dropped about 50 basis points, or .5%. Some lenders are quoting rates with 0 to 1/2 point at 5% or less. These rates are for buyers with good credit and 20% or greater down payments. Rates for borrowers with less than 20% down, less than excellent credit, or looking to borrow more than the conforming loan limit of $417,000 (for Sullivan County) are looking at considerably higher rates.

Remember Sullivan Charities

Between now and Dec. 31st, many of us who are able will be making our end-of-year donations to various charities. For those of you who are part-time residents of Sullivan County, please consider including Sullivan charities in your giving plans this year. There are dozens of very worthy charitable organizations here in Sullivan County, providing social services, programs for youth, support for the arts and local public radio.

Some charitable organizations, particularly arts-related — like the Delaware Valley Arts Alliance, the Delaware Valley Opera, WJFF Community Radio and the Catskill Arts Society  — may have more 'share of mind' among second homers because of their public presence and events. All are worthy of your support.

For those of you who donate to environmental and land preservation causes, please consider some local groups this year like the Delaware Highlands Conservancy and Catskill Mountainkeeper.

I'd also like to draw your attention to 3 charities that don't have as high a profile and you may not think about — but can definitely use your support.

Safe Passage provides shelter, a hotline, legal, advocacy and other services to victims of domestic violence in Sullivan County. Safe Passage is part of CACHE, the Community Action Commission to Help the Economy, based in Liberty. They don't have a fancy website or slick fundraising effort. There isn't even a way to give them a donation online. But they can use your help. Make your check out to Safe Passage/CACHE (the 'CACHE' has to be on it, so the bank can deposit it) and mail to Safe Passage, c/o CACHE, PO Box 783, Liberty, NY 12754.

Sullivan County SPCA does amazing work with very limited resources to assist lost, abandoned and homeless animals throughout the county. Homeless and abandoned pets are a growing problem with the downturn in the economy, and more people unable to continue caring for their pets. You can make a donation online at the Sullivan County SPCA website. They also welcome donation of goods (find the list of items they need here) and, of course, if you're thinking about a pet, consider adopting one from the SPCA.

Regional Food Bank of Northeastern NY is not technically a Sullivan County charity, but a food bank 'umbrella' that provides food to local food pantries and hunger relief organizations in over 20 upstate counties, including Sullivan. Sullivan itself doesn't have a full-time food bank, but a network of food pantries, often run by local churches. One of the best ways to help out these local food pantries — that truly do God's work — is to donate to the Regional Food Bank of NE New York. The Food Bank is really efficient at collecting donated or 'surplus' food and distributing it out to those who need it. $1 donated to the Food Bank results in $12 of food in the hands of those in need.

These are some charities that I know and support, but is by no means an exhaustive list of worthy groups in Sullivan County. Please use the "Comments" below to provide information on other local charities that people may want to consider in their year end giving.

In the spirit of the holidays, please don't use the "Comments" to debate the merits of a specific charitable organization or to slam an organization.

Christmas Shopping in the Country

Christmas has crept up yet again. It seems to get earlier and earlier every year. But my Christmas shopping is done! And this year, it was a pleasant experience, devoid of the hassle and frazzle of mall and big box shopping because I did almost all of my shopping locally. I bought my Christmas cards from Echo Letterpress in Jeffersonville. (See card at left). Echo is a wonderful craft print shop that hand prints everything using old fashioned letterpresses and type. I bought a number of lovely gifts at Duke Pottery, west of Roscoe. (Sorry, I can't reveal what I bought because my friends sometimes read this blog, and I don't want to tip them off.) It was was so pleasant visiting with Carolyn Duke and talking about her work. I also made visits to the Holiday Market in Callicoon and the Outside Gallery in Livingston Manor. Almost every gift I'm giving this year is handmade, and if I didn't make it, I know the person who did.

The whole experience has been, to mirror the Echo card, "100% Pure Joy", and such a sharp contrast to the two quick trips I've made to a mall, or jostling the shopping crowds in Manhattan. Whether its buying a piece of pottery at Christmas, perennials to plant in the spring, or the first summer tomato at the farmer's market, its very special to know where things come from (no, Virginia, everything doesn't come from the UPS man). And one of the main reasons I cherish living here.

Latest Current Market Conditions Posted

OK, folks, this month's "Current Market Conditions" is up, with November's closed sales data. I was a bit surprised with what I found. The 3 month sales number was far better than the numbers bandied about by those speculating in the post below — there were 138 closed single family sales in the Sullivan MLS for the 3 months ending Nov. 30th. Check it out.

Living in the Anxiety Machine

Last evening I curled up with my latest copy of International Living, a monthly magazine aimed at expat-wannabees filled with tales of overseas real estate bargains and Americans enjoying (and occasionally struggling with the hassles of) life abroad. A column, "Move overseas ... and watch the crisis from afar" by Lee Harrison really got me thinking. (Sorry, folks, International Living articles are only available online for subscribers.) Lee "retired" to Cuenca, Ecuador at age 49 and also has a home in Uruguay.

Lee makes an annual visit back to the U.S., and this year he was struck by how apprehensive and anxious we are in the midst of the financial chaos. He writes:

"... So it feels like it must be my patriotic duty to be stressed, like everyone else. But I'm not, because I'm no longer directly involved. I'm just an interested spectator when it comes to the assaults and stresses of the American last-lane lifestyle, with its financial, social and political tensions. It's not because I don't care. It's because I am immersed in a new culture and lifestyle ... one not dominated by CNN, financial markets or terrorism ..."

Lee hits the nail on the head for me. We've had recessions before, and frequent comparison is being made between the current troubles and the severe recession of 1981/82 when unemployment hit 10.8%. I was living and working in Philadelphia back then, and just don't remember having all this anxiety about the economy. But the early 80's were a kinder, gentler time, without 24/7 cable news, CNBC and the internet — relentless anxiety machines that can fuel our fears around the clock.

During this economic crisis, I'm sure many of you, like me, have tuned in to CNBC to watch the daily market drama. The 3PM to 4PM trading hour has become as much a nail biting cliff hanger as an episode of ER. Some mornings I check out what's happened in Asia and Europe before the U.S. markets open. The Footsie, Dax and Hang Seng weren't even part of my vocabulary six months ago, and back in the early 80's, I didn't even know their were overseas markets, much less watch how they were performing.

The media understand well that crisis sells. AFter all, who really watches the Weather Channel unless there's a big hurricane or snowstorm? They have hours and hours of time to fill with crisis and drama to keep us watching. And watch we do.

Benefit Wine Auction Sun Dec 7

The Callicoon Wine Merchant in Callicoon is sponsoring a wine auction to benefit the Delaware Youth Center this Sunday, Dec. 7th at 2PM. The auction will happen at the Delaware Youth Center in Callicoon at 2PM. There will be a preview and reception at the Callicoon Wine Merchant shop on Main St. in Callicoon from Noon to 2PM. (You can also register there to get your bidding paddle.) This is a great cause that can use your support.

CORRECTION: The Wine Auction itself will happen at the Callicoon Holiday Market, which someone said may be in a tent in the parking lot of Klimchok Real Estate on Main Street.

Look at Mortgage Rates Lately?

Source: Bankrate.com

Mortgage rates for 30 year fixed mortgages have been dropping like a rock. The first wave was in late October, dropping from the 6.5% range to the 6% range. In the last week, rates have fallen even further into the 5.5% range after the Fed announced it would purchase mortgage backed securities from Fannie and Freddie Mac. There is also talk of a government plan to drive 30 year fixed mortgage rates as low as 4.5% in an attempt to reinvigorate the slumping housing market.

Mortgage rates are a key component of affordability, and lower rates theoretically translate into greater affordability. (To borrow $100,000 at 6.5% on a fixed rate 30 year loan, your monthly payment would be $632.07, while at 5%, your payment would be $536.82.) "Affordability" right now probably isn't the single most important factor contributing to the sales slide; there are still a lot of folks who can "afford" a house (and qualify for a loan), but are hoarding their acorns and deferring any major purchase until they have more confidence.

That being said, mortgage rates below 5% could have a positive psychological impact on buyers. Of course, using cheap money to buy an overpriced house in the end is no great value. But there are some very "value priced" houses on the market (not a lot, but some), and using value money to purchase a value house could add up to an overall great value.

Some folks may scream, "More cheap money and loose credit. Isn't that what got us into this mess?" These loans are going to be different in many ways — buyers will have to have down payments, documented income and good credit scores. They likely will only be available to owner-occupiers, not investors, and will only be for "conventional conforming" loans (in Sullivan County, that means a loan value no greater than $417,000).

An interesting side note to all the mortgage news is the growing spread between "conventional conforming" rates (the types of loans purchased or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie), and non-conforming jumbo loans (for loan amounts above $417,000 in Sullivan.) Yesterday, Chase was offering conforming 30's to buyers with 20% down payments and excellent credit at 5.25% with 1.25 points. Their jumbo loans were being quoted a full 3% higher, at 8.25% with 1 point. That's a huge spread, and really shows the wariness of investors to purchase mortgage debt that doesn't have some type of tacit guarantee.