Latest Current Market Conditions Posted

OK, folks, this month's "Current Market Conditions" is up, with November's closed sales data. I was a bit surprised with what I found. The 3 month sales number was far better than the numbers bandied about by those speculating in the post below — there were 138 closed single family sales in the Sullivan MLS for the 3 months ending Nov. 30th. Check it out.

Comments

[henry]

Interesting piece as always.

Given time to close, I think that many of the November closed deals were purchased before the Lehman bankruptcy. December (or January) is a better indicator of market post events in september?

Also, number of sales excluding foreclosures is pretty weak.

[T. Boone]

An interesting story about a farmer in The Beechwoods section of Callicoon, New York declaring that gas drilling is GOOD for open space.

Dave...thoughts?

=========

Farmer says drilling good for open space

CALLICOON — Both farmer and negotiator, Callicoon native Bill Graby is leading a group of landowners – representing around 70,000 acres – who are looking to secure leases for gas drilling.

Story by Dan Hust

{story continues at}

http://www.sc-democrat.com/news/12December/09/news.htm

[mal]

David, could you confirm the median sales price for 9/1 - 11/30? The table shows a median of $162,000, but the text description states $154,250. (It is probably the latter, given the additional statement that it was ~6.5% below last month's measure of $165,500).

[Sandy]

you need a section termed "what does this mean for you as a seller?"

Within, I would suggest, "sell now or forever hold your deflating property."

[Jeff]

Thanks T. Boone

I will make sure our milk and other farm products DO NOT come from Billy-Bob Graby's farm.

[Mary Ellen]

What Graby says in his article is true: those of us who own large parcels of land find it impossible to keep up with ever-increasing taxes and expenses, and we start selling off bits and pieces just to pay stay afloat. I was about to do the same when the gas frenzy started, and I took a wait-and-see approach.

Nobody wants the Catskills polluted;most people who sign leases see it as the only way to afford their land, and avoid selling and turning a rural area into a patchwork quilt of log chalets on 3 acres. Maybe, just maybe, the technology available will have the ability to extract the gas without leaving toxic soil behind, and that would be the best for everyone in the area.

[Farmer Joe]

Farmers should sell to hunters.
Developers are out of the market. Gas companies are retreating.
Hunters at least are willing to buy our land for around 2500 per acre for acreage of say 50 acres in size.

Here in Neversink, hunters are the only buyers interested in large lands. They share interest in keeping the land undeveloped and natural, are responsible and keep us on alert when there is change. Last year, we leased our 115 acre farm to hunters for the year and this year, I am thinking of selling off 50 acres of woods to them.

[bix]

Right you are. Hunting tract right next to my house, and I like that just fine. I am totally opposed to blood sports, except on my doorstep. Funny, huh?

[Ferrara]

Leasing to hunters is a viable option for farm land and large tracts of unused land. You usually don't have city slickers near farms to worry about the shot and jump out of bed like overzealous freaks.

In bethel, there are many farms one could buy off farmers. We bought 39 acres off the Michel farmers back in 04' for 4000 per acre but am sure it would go for much cheaper today.

[MKG]

Bix...you hunt off your front porch? Now that is irresponsible.

[Mary Ellen]

Gas companies will be drilling in the spring of '09-they are still searching for leases, and Obama has set aside billions for gas pipelines and infrastructure as part of his stimulus plan.

If you find drilling for gas too distasteful, think of it as a way to wean ourselves from foreign oil;it will be a positive endeavor for the U.S.

As I've said before, telephone poles are ugly, but we put up with them to gain a greater good. It will be a common site to see a pipe sticking out of the ground here and there in the Catskills. If they can do it w/o pollution, it's all good.

[rudy vallee]

DAVE???????

[bix]

Hey Ferrara, if you were an investor with approx 250K -- cash -- to put in Sullivan Co. real estate, what do you think that would buy? This is a fellow I know who lives abroad. He was thinking raw land. I've been trying to help him out, but the asking prices for land that I've seen are even nuttier than the ones for houses.

[Brady Hill]

We are against any gas leasing/pollution on our farm.

Why do you think the industry can withold the ingredients to the public with regards to the chemicals they use to lubricate for the drilling and hydrofracking process? It's nothing more than ethylene glycol (anti-freeze). Imagine that polluting your fresh water!

[Ferrara]

Bix....
I would suggest Orange County. Orange county is a suburb, like westchester or nassau not rural like SC. Development will be down for the next few years as down economies hurt suburbs (urban sprawl) but should come back within 2 decades. I came across 28 acres in Montgomery on Anderson rd for 159k asking after a year on the market, originally 289k. Flat, open, wooded, high and dry. For orange county, prices vary depending where you are.

For Sullivan, I wouldn't pay more than 2500 per acre for large acreage. 250K should buy your friend around 100-180 acres comfortably. 140 acres on Lenape Lake rd in Liberty went for 250k last year. Make sure it is not wetlands....otherwise 500 per acre would be too much!

[bix]

Yeah that makes sense. Some of the asking prices I've seen are just absurd. Like 250K for four undistinguished acres in Bethel when I once saw a friggin house on five acres for only a little more than that.

[David Knudsen]

DAVE??? Yup, I'm here. I just didn't weigh in on the comments about Bob Graby's comments in the Democrat about open land. He does raise some interesting points in that article. Look over in PA at the numbers of lovely, open farms that have been split up into subdivisions, and it ain't all that bucolic.

I'm following the other comment thread here with quite a bit of interest, as I don't work that much in the raw land part of the market. Raw land often is a "futures" market of sorts. While some folks buy raw land for their own personal, future use, more raw land probably trades for future investment potential than personal use. If you buy a large, subdividable or commercially zoned parcel in Orange, you're betting on expanded suburban sprawl into Orange or possible commercial / office park use. If you buy something bucolic in Sullivan with an eye to preservation, or preservation-oriented subdivision, you're betting that land with preservation and protection features within a couple of hours of NYC will have future value. And other buyers will be placing bets on gas leasing. The type of land that's moving, at what price and to whom, is a very interesting barometer of sentiment.

[JM]

Bix,

I must agree with ferrara's comments on raw land investments.
Orange county is a sounder investment than sullivan when it comes to land.

One thing I have noticed is that Sullivan county does not have an established raw land market. It's much like selling art. Its worthless to many folks but sellers insist it is always worth more to somebody.......but when will that someone come along....in 30 years? Many parcels are priced as if they were for sale in the future, say 2035. No offers period.
It's all about buyer and seller making individual deals. I have seen some nice parcels go for under 2000 per acre but rarely is a realtor involved. During the last few years, speculative flipping tarnished the market and today many sellers cannot come to grips of the dead raw land market.

Most realtors don't deal with it b/c parcels are for sale forever and ever before getting offers. It's not like house hunting at all.

[bix]

Well put. I'd be curious to get Dave's take on the situation.

Raw land aside, I wonder if there are any investment opportunities in Sullivan Co. real estate?

[bix]

Oh, strike my last comment. My bad, I didn't see David's comment referring to raw land.

David, most of the properties my friend has been considering have no provision for preservation or the lack thereof.

[David Knudsen]

bix, i'm not talking about properties that have preservation provisions already on them. But rather that in the future, factors like unspoiled viewsheds, privacy, large areas of protected woodslands or fields (with shared use with neighbors or not) are values that city dwellers tend to value in second home areas. In Orange, the 'future' value may rest largely on commercial and suburban development in an ex-urban ring around NYC, parts of which are in commuting distance to NYC. Whereas the future value of much land in the counties just outside that suburban-exurban ring (Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware) may rest on land factors that appeal to urbanites in their quest for a bucolic rural escape.

[Rudy]

David Knudsen:
"Whereas the future value of much land in the counties just outside that suburban-exurban ring (Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware) may rest on land factors that appeal to urbanites in their quest for a bucolic rural escape."

----------

O.K.

How does gas drilling (Re: The article in the Sullivan County Democrat - Gas Dilling in the Beechwoods near Callicoon, New York) fit in to that paradigm of a "bucolic landscape" Dave?

http://www.sc-democrat.com/news/12December/09/news.htm

Trucks, trailers, noise, lights...

We'd love to hear your comments.

Thank you.

Rudy

[Event Horizon]

Re: Gas Drilling:

How about when the land is all polluted, the water undrinkable from the anti-freeze ponds?

Maybe then, it will be 200 bucks per acre.

I will stick with Ulster or Columbia
Thank You

[David Knudsen]

rudy, gas drilling is certainly an open question. i don't have an answer.

[bix]

What's clear (on the issue of raw land) is that the market is so frozen that prices do not reflect the available information. An "inefficient market" as they say in finance. A/K/A a "ripoff," at least as far as the MLS asking prices are concerned.

[Reg]

Back to the first comment: I agree that it will take a few months until the deals-in-progress move their way through the peristalsis of Sullivan County paperwork. December and January are the ones to watch. And Dave, if you could compare not just 12-07 vs. 12-08, but the CHANGE between 11-07/12-07 vs. 11-08/12-08, that would be great, as it will show acceleration of a drop-off as well as absolute depth of a drop-off.

[mary ellen]

One way to research gas drilling is to investigate other gas wells. New York has about 65,000 (don't quote me)existing gas wells, with no incidence of pollution or water contamination.

I continue to research everything I can get my hands on regarding this topic.

[Ferrara]

Bix,

Here are the only large parcels I could find that sold in S.C. in 2008.
The average is $1290 per acre for large raw acreage!
And I thought 2-3k per acre was the average.
Asking Prices are NOT comps. Asking Prices are arbitrary and irrelevant.

02/08 $ 250,000 ELNAPE LAKE RD
Youngsville Buyer: Alesci, Pietro Acres: 141
Parcel ID: 15.-1-22
School Dist: Liberty
Assessment: 71300
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Twin Oaks Rod And Gun, Club

02/08 $ 100,000 PINE KILL RD
Wurtsboro Buyer: Allen, Stanley Paul Acres: 48.9
Parcel ID: 65-1-3.6
School Dist: Port Jervis
Assessment: 177500
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Rampe, Christopher

08 $ 50,000 499 CHURCH RD,MAJESTIC RD 84
Fallsburg Buyer: Putre, Henry Acres: 54
Parcel ID: 59-1-22.1
School Dist: Fallsburg
Assessment: 65000
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Giaquinto, John

04/08 $ 78,000 SCHEIBE RD
Liberty Buyer: Deda, Elez Acres: 42.63
Parcel ID: 25.-1-9
School Dist: Liberty
Assessment: 143900
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Chapman, Susanna

03/08 $ 350,000 BAILEY LAKE RD & FRASER R
Monticello Buyer: Estate Kutsher, Milton Acres: 339.9
Parcel ID: 9-1-7
School Dist: Monticello
Assessment: 638600
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Bresler, Jonathan

05/08 $ 14,176 LAUREL AVE
Buyer: Rose Gardens Llc, Acres: 20.5
Parcel ID: 56.-1-3
School Dist: Fallsburg
Assessment: 35000
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: County Of Sullivan,

05/08 $ 160,000 HOUGHTALING RD
Fallsburg Buyer: Klein, Jerome Acres: 113.8
Parcel ID: 12-1-24.2
School Dist: Fallsburg
Assessment: 104900
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Brenner, Arlene - As Admin.

07/08 $ 105,840 8 VACANT LANE
Buyer: Martin, Heidi Acres: 114.4
Parcel ID: 8-1-11.25
School Dist: Liberty
Assessment: 27200
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Kuplen Properties Llc,

06/08 $ 79,300 SUGAR LOAF RD
Grahamsville Buyer: Gab Land And Timber, Llc, Acres: 100
Parcel ID: 5.-1-6
School Dist: Tri-Valley
Assessment: 2500
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Rudolph, John E

06/08 $ 130,000 NYS RTE 97
Buyer: Mc Cabe, Terence Acres: 50
Parcel ID: 24.-1-3.2
School Dist: Sullivan West
Assessment: 48800
Class : Vacant Land
Seller: Criswell, Jessica M & Joan B

[Steve]

Sorry for the off-topic question, but does anyone know if the ice storm hit western sullivan county? Thanks!!

[Mike G]

It sure did...check out the selling prices above!