Buyers Back?

Being quoted in last Friday's NY Times article on Catskills home prices led to a surge in calls and email inquiries over the weekend from potential buyers. I'm not about to make a statement that the market is rebounding because I experienced a surge in interest following a Times mention.

The folks that called and emailed were mostly asking about vacation homes, in a range of prices, settings and styles — from under $100,000 up a about a million. I've been busy the last few days, emailing out listings, discussing them on the phone and setting up appointments. I've been making a lot of calls to other agents to check on the status of listings, and that's where the big surprise came.

A lot of the houses I called about, even though they may still show as "Active" in the MLS, have deals on them. Not just one or two, but at least a dozen, including 2 of the 3 lake rights houses at Lake Devenoge, two farmhouses on acreage near Callicoon and even a lakefront house at Chapin listed at $1.9M. The houses in deals weren't all low end by any means. Most of these deals happened in just the last couple of weeks.

Of course, this is a very unscientific sample — its just houses I called about to check on status. And a dozen houses does not a market resurgency make. But it's very different than just a month or two ago, when it seemed like every house I checked on or wanted to show was still available.

Comments

[ar]

This news has me scratching my head, because while I'm not a RE professional with access to your range of information, I do keep a close eye on several brokerage web sites. And all I see there are the same houses, week after week, month after month, some for more than two years, with no sales even pending contracts indicated despite a relentless series of price reductions. I'm not trying to be provocative -- this is what I see on sites like Frieda and Klimchock and RM Farm and McKean. If anybody sees something different on these sites, I'd like them to explain what I'm missing.

[JJ]

Dave,

Same situation in Delaware County. Listings that I have been watching have been sold.

Here's a re-cap of some of them (wanted to post the listings for all of them but since they are sold they have been romved from the websites - except one):

1) Bovina: 2 small farmhouses with barn on 57 acres. Right on main road. Listing price was $650,000. I thought it would go for half that but it sold for $595,000.

2) Franklin: Restored (barely) farmhouse on 153 acres. Right on main road. Across the street is dilapidated (eyesore) farmstead. Listing price was $495,000. Sold for $470,000.

3) Roxbury: New stone house. No garage. 12 acres. Listing price $895,000 but reduced to $825,000. Sold for $750,000.

http://twostonesrealty.com/address.php?property_ID=52004

[KGraham]

I don't see anything moving.

Trying to create demand in a demandless environment will be unsuccessful in this environment.

The near term (next 3-5 years) will most likely be much much worse than the 1991-1995 downturn period in real estate.

A few sales and calls will not put a dent into anything.

GoodLuck to all

[academia]

[DK]
"A lot of the houses I called about, even though they may still show as "Active" in the MLS, have deals on them..."
--------------

O.K. Let's see if they close Dave.

In this market of tight credit and uncertainty only time will tell.

We'll keep a watchful eye on the closing sales in the 1Q.

~academia.

[bix]

I'm not surprised that would be a bit of a pickup, even if solely because of the NY Times article. People are on the sidelines, waiting for something good to come along. I can see people coming out to the Catskills, being discouraged about the poor quality of the listings, and now pleased to see some good and reasonably priced stuff on the market.

I happen to know one person personally who would love to buy some land as an investment, but there just doesn't seem to be any at a less than insane price.

[bix]

My post crossed with academia's. He's right. My own deal almost fell through because of a lack of recent sales and thus few comparables.

[Rod]

People are just waiting for some good news so they can get on with their lives. I think there is a lot of demand pent up. Good houses and good land at fair pricing are going to find buyers.

[Reg]

AR- Lots of Sullivan County (and surrounding area) realtors don't seem to update their websites very frequently, and certainly not often enough to show a change on a property as subtle as going from For Sale to In Contract.

Not doing so probably loses them a tremendous amount of business, but for whatever reason, they just can't be bothered. A house I bought in May, for example, was on the realtor's website as recently as Christmas Eve. Nice.

[MS]

Reg...

A lot of realtors will leave a good listing on their websites after they have sold, not out of laziness, but for the old bait and switch. "Sorry that house has recently sold, but tell me what you are looking for, maybe I can help."

Then they've got a lead. Less listings on a website equal less phone calls.

[alex]

Dave, the only real indication of whether homes are really selling is with due time. Come March or April, I feel the information or the notion of homes selling will prove false. I purchased my home in May, I wish the selling point is accurate, just can't imagine being the case. I'm guessing only 1/4 of homes in contract will close. In addition, homes selling with regards to the number of homes for sale is most likely a very small amount. Again, I am a recent home owner and hope your info is a general indication........... although a bit difficult to go along with. By the way, can someone please explain why the "Blue Victorian" in Jeffersonville, a Klimchok listing, is not selling at the 129k asking price, which I happen to think as being very fair.

[Destructed Demand]

Demand Destruction

[Jefferson's]

Wellcome Visitors

Nothing is selling in the Catskills...so come by and buy something...

Will ya?

[mal]

Even when the market was doing well, the MLS carried so much sustained inventory that 90% of available properties remained unsold in any given month. Now it is more than 95%, so even a doubling in sales activity may not be very obvious to most of us. For example, I just checked Freda Realty's site and found five listings all saying "sale pending". That's much better than many would have realized, but it takes a determined effort to find those listings among the majority that are still listed as "available".

[Gina]

What happend Dave?
It's like a bomb went off up here.

Not a soul that wishes to purchase anything anymore.

Give us a ring when you get a chance.

Gina

[john]

Blue Victorian is probably not selling because it is only useful for retail which is overcrowded in Jeffersonville and the taxes are @$6500 which is quite high for property selling for $129k

[cfranch]

gina
those of us thinking about buying are just scared. nobody wants to get burned. a second home is not a necessity. the market will come back but only after some confidence is restored. the bickering about the fiscal stimulus package is not creating any confidence and today's employment numbers were awful. not a good environment to purchase anything-real estate, stocks etc....

[farnoosh zarabi]

...Dave's in da Bronx!

LOndon calling.

[Reg]

John,

Looks from the listing as if Blue Victorian might be zoned for mixed-use (owner's quarters, and all). But if it's not, that might explain why it hasn't sold. It is also a lot of space, sliced up in a very unfriendly way, for retail.

[Ed]

You need to look at history to know what is happening today and where we stand in a historical standpoint. The late 1980's saw the same housing bubble but much smaller. The time-line is as follows:

1986-1989 Housing Bubble
1989 Peak in Housing
1990-1991 Recession (during desert storm)
1993 Unemployment peaks (always delayed after recessions)
1995 Housing bottom for NYC
1998 Housing bottom for Catskills
1999 Housing begins it's historic bubble

We are currently in a 1991 position.

We have many years of deflation before hitting any bottom.
People talk about confidence. Until affordability comes back, confidence will not exist.
During the Clinton years, housing was flat lacking the so called 'wealth affect'.People felt the economy was great... why? b/c of affordability, not wealth affect.

[David Knudsen]

Nope, I'm not in da Bronx, I'm here. I've just been real busy all week, as heretical as that may seem to the apostles of economic Armageddon. I agree that the broad market has slowed a lot here, but there are pockets with activity. One common element among buyers I'm talking with is that they're only interested in properties that are really good values, and that one criterion sharply reduces the "available" inventory. I can send out 10 listings, but often only two or three are what I consider to be in the "good value / motivated seller" category.

The "great value" bottom line criterion factor is pretty understandable from a buyer perspective, because that's where risk is minimized. I think it's mitigating that risk, as much as affordability per se, that's key to making a sale in this market. Many of the houses I'm seeing get interest only picked up that interest when asking prices were dropped to a level that folks perceived as a "great deal".

[ar]

I'm beginning to understand that semantics are key. Based on the sales numbers reported above, it seems to me that "great value" is very often a synonym for "deeply distressed" or "giving it away." Good for a few lucky buyers at this moment, but not a healthy market by any means.

[Manning]

Buyers back? Back from what?

We're not even 25% into this financial mess and buyers are going to be back?
Things are depressed here on Long Island...just imagine upstate!