Power Outage Info

Today's "major ice storm" kind of fizzled — it takes a very particular set of circumstances to result in an ice storm. But, nonetheless, lots of folks may get worried in the middle of winter that their power might be out. The worry isn't unfounded. Loss of power --> heating system not working --> add in freezing temps for a day or so --> burst pipes. Every time an ice storm is predicted, I get a few calls or emails asking "How bad is it? Is the power out?"

Now I've joined the legions of "from a distance" potential worrywarts, since I'm often in my apartment in the Bronx during mid week in the winter. There used to be a tried and true method of knowing if your power was out. You called your number, and if the answering machine didn't pick up, you knew your power was out. But I don't have an answering machine anymore; I have voicemail. I called a few friends today who are in the general area to ask "How bad is it? Is the power out?" Even though they had power, it wasn't necessarily a reliable indicator for my particular road.

So I checked the NYSEG site, where NYSEG has an Outage Central section, where they list power outages by township and specific road. I've gone on and on in earlier posts about NYSEG's great Service Interruption phone line, that gives you updates about when service is expected to be restored. Their Outage Central online system is an extension of that, and can provide peace of mind to homeowners who are away from their house.

Who'd ever thunk that anyone would ever say that they love their electric company. But I gotta say, I love NYSEG. Whoever designed this power interruption reporting and information system deserves a BIG promotion.

Comments

[bix]

Why not get a power interruption meter? It calls you if the power is out or if the temperature is below a certain number. You can call in to get the temperature of your house.

[bix]

Here's the one I bought, which was recommended by my plumber:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000071NYC

Some alarm services will charge you a monthly fee so you can lease one of these gizmos. But you can buy one yourself for $170 at Amazon. Saves a lot of worrying.

[mal]

Great suggestion bix! It looks very useful. Requires a land line, but not a dedicated line (it works even if you have an answering machine or voicemail). Runs on 110V, but has a backup battery.

I just learned that there is also a deluxe model (FA-D2) that adds a few cool features. e.g., it allows you to call in and remotely adjust the temperature setting, via a simple wiring connection to your main thermostat, so you can turn up the heat (or A/C) before you arrive! It also simultaneously monitors both a high and low temperature set point, so you could use it to monitor a freezer, or alert to a malfunctioning boiler. It also supports optional additional sensors: a WaterSiren (WS-04) to be alerted by phone of water leaks or flooding, and a MiniAlarm Motion Sensor (MA-S01) to be alerted if intruders break in.

[Bosco]

O.K.

For all you gloomy gusses out there, here are the two week closing home sales.

We're getting a *better sampling*.

X----------------------------------X

Two week - Sullivan

X----------------------------------X

Week ending January 2 2009
Week ending January 9 2009

X----------------------------------X

17 Homes Sold

X----------------------------------X

29,000
44,000
55,000
55,500
75,000
82,500
85,100
90,000
110,000
165,000
172,900
175,000
200,000
204,000
223,900
240,000

X------------------------------X

Median: $90,000
Average: $123,100

X-------------------------------X

Notes:
* 10 sales (66% / 60%) occured either
in Thompson, Fallsburgh or Liberty.
** 2 homes out of the 15 were sold
outside of Sullivan County.
(15 homes sold within Sullivan)
X--------------------------------X

[bix]

Eight properties under 100k?

Mal, on the temperature alarm, you may want to call the manufacturer as the Intermediate model has some features that the advanced model has. I can call in to get temperature readings even with the answering machine on (they have a clever system to bypass that). It also says if the power is off.

[larry]

public record bulletin
The Credit Bureau of Monticello
PO Box 453
Monticello, NY 12701
845 794-4910
"We Bring the Courthouse to Your Desk"
call to subscribe, interesting stuff. all deed transfers, new businesses, foreclosures, mortgages, judgements, new corps, etc.

[David Knudsen]

Bosco, can you please source your data, because it isn't jiving with what I'm seeing. If its from the Sullivan MLS, for the 2 weeks from Dec. 27 through Jan. 9, I'm showing 13 single family sales, with an average sales price of $135,865 and a median of $165K. If you're looking at all residential (which would include condo sales), the number goes up by 2 to 15, with an average of $130,086 and a median of $110K.

Lightsout, I removed your long post because it just wasn't on-topic. These long, more general economic comments about bond markets and the Fed really belong on some other blog.

[bosco]

[Dave Knudsen writes:]
"Dec. 27 through Jan. 9, I'm showing 13 single family sales, with an average sales price of $135,865 and a median of $165K."
------------

No way Dave.

Wish it was true.

Residential closed sales in Sullivan County from 12/26/08 through 1/9/09 were as follows:

I threw out the two condo sales as well as the two sales outside of Sullivan County (one was in Orange and the other was in Ulster).

===================================
Two Week - 12/26/08 through 1/9/09
Closed Sales - Sullivan County, NY
13 Homes
Liberty and Thompson - 8 Homes - 61%
All other townships - 5 Homes 39%

====================================
1. 29,900
2. 44,000 - L
3. 55,000 - L
4. 85,100 - T
5. 87,450 - T
6. 86,000 - L
7. 90,000
8. 110,000 - T
9. 165,000 - T
10. 200,000
11. 204,000
12. 223,900 - L
13. 240,000
=======================================
Median Price: $90,000
Average Price for time period: $124,573
=======================================

[b.]

P.S. - Two weeks does not make a trend but if one was to compare the first two weeks of this year to the same two weeks of last year we find the following: 13 homes sold compared to 20 last year (sales off by 35% YOY) but more important are the sold prices which are atrocious.

[Last year at this time]

Median: $162,000
Average: $171,009

...and this year:

Median: $90,000 (-44%)
Average: 124,573 (-27%)
==========================

[MS]

B--the sold prices are not atrocious if you are a buyer.

[henry]

Bosco,

It would be helpful if you source and describe your data (includes land sales, etc.).

Assuming this data is accurate, I am interested in what you think it tells you about home value in sullivan county, and what confidence you have that the decrease in price is due to changes in the SC market (vs sampling issues).

[b.]

Henry,
The data reflects only home sales - not vacant land, condos or rentals.

And MS - you're right. It all depends on what side of the see-saw you're on.

For those who were short equities in 2008, I'm sure it was a wonderful year since they could sell stock - like C, AIG, GS, GE, etc... high and buy it back at a lower price.

B.

[David Knudsen]

Henry, when the data samples are so small, it doesn't mean squat. If the 14 day period moves just a few days, to say 12/23/08 through 1/05/09, for the 11 single family sales during that period in Sullivan, the average climbs to $142,318 and the median skyrockets to $165,000. By the way, Bosco is not using 2 weeks, he or she is using 15 days. If I just shift the sample period 4 days, to 12/27/08 through 1/9/09, the average drops to $132,783 and the median to $127,500. Is one to infer, from the median, that the market dropped in 4 days by 23%, or even if you use the average, that it dropped 7%?

All along I've said I'm not trying to sugarcoat the drop off in the market. But I am committed to portraying an accurate picture of the market trends on this blog and website. These small samples don't portray an accurate picture. From now on, I'm going to remove them. I'll continue to post 3 month data like I usually do on a monthly basis, and use single month data to illustrate trends. If the commenter feels it is so crucial to the public interest to post weekly or biweekly sales data, I would encourage him or her to start their own website or blog.

[Reg]

Hear, hear.

[Rod]

I think the value is in the detail - Knudsen's monthly numbers don't show how many sales at each price, just broad stroke discussion of the median, average, and number of sales - and a valuable analysis based on un-provided backup data. Personally, I think it's interesting that 5 homes sold in towns outside of Liberty and Thompson in the past two weeks. It's that lack of detail that can enable an unverifiable sugar-coating in the monthly data posted.

I mean, if we are predicting 400-500 sales this year, that's exactly what the biweekly numbers are showing.

The only reason not to post the numbers is to restict information to buyers and investors. If every real estate company is 'doing great', but there are only 5 sales outside Liberty and Thompson, doesn't that mean someone is lying? And isn't that information pretty important? There are a lot of posts on this site that 'don't mean squat', are misleading, and are factually handicapped - I'm not sure why this real data is so alarming in light of the year of 'economic armegedden' posts on this site.

Information is the comfort food of buyers.

[b.]

[Rod]
"Knudsen's monthly numbers don't show how many sales at each price, just --->broad stroke5 homes sold in towns outside of Liberty and Thompson in the past two weeks<--. It's that lack of detail that can enable an unverifiable sugar-coating in the monthly data posted.

Hear Hear.

B.

[henry]

Reg,

It is one thing to ask for more detail on David's numbers. I don't have a problem with that... as long as david is willing to provide it.

It is another to post two weeks of sales data, and claim that sales prices are "attrocious" (as always happens when the data is posted). This is where david and I have an issue. It is misleading... and just noise. Moving the measurement period by just a few days changes the outcome dramatically.

Again, it is not that i am against posting more data. Were you to post 30+ days of sales prices (along with the equiv. data from the year ago period), then I would not have an issue (assuming that 30 days is a large enough sample).

At the end of the day, it is david's website...

[henry]

My post should have been directed to Rod (not Reg).

[Wally]

Let's see what happens by the end of this week - Friday - and then you'll now have a three week total.

Maybe a few houses over 300k will sell and that will prop up the average from where they are now. One can only hope. Right?

In my view, a three month, running average is fine for one source of data mining but why not allow the weekly and monthly data as well - as long as the information is correct.

Enjoy.

Wally.

[Krugman]

How is anyone posting houses in SC selling above 350k?

My data NYDEEDS.com shows close to nothing has sold all year last year past 300k.

125K seems more like the average for SC and 100k the mean.

Krugman

[mal]

David's stand on statistical sampling is logical. Let's say we had a spreadsheet with details of all property sales in Sullivan county during 2008. If we repeatedly selected (sampled) a small number of sales, at random, from that complete lists of all sales (the population), would each sample generate the same median value as the total population? No, we would get a range (distribution) of medians from well below to well above the actual median for all sales. Importantly, the smaller the size of each sample, the broader our distribution of medians would be (i.e., greater variance, or more "noise") and hence the greater the risk of a statistically invalid inference. For example, last March there were just 23 properties sold (a one-month sample). Was that a portent of a dramatic change in sales volume? No, it was an anomalous month, and an illustration of the value of 3-month smoothing. Ok, then why not just let all the data come out on a shorter time-scale, and then re-interpret it over longer time scales once we have sufficient "statistical power"? One very practical reason is that every discussion gets derailed by people posting inferences that are statistically unsupportable and therefore potentially very misleading. Yesterday, for example, Bosco wrote, "Two weeks does not make a trend...", but in the same sentence went on to infer a trend. And note that this current discussion has hijacked David's original posting about power outage information.

But what about the argument that more information is empowering? Like many here, I would love to have unrestricted access to all data fields on the MLS, going back for decades. But Bosco's data postings are full of internal inconsistencies. Take the number of sales: the banner at the beginning of the sales data posted Jan 10 said "17 Homes Sold"; the list had 16 numbers; "Notes" said "15 homes sold within Sullivan"; and Notes also said "2 homes out of the 15 were sold outside of Sullivan". So was the total 13, 15, 16 or 17? Let's presume the problem was just some careless typing, with one missed entry on the list of what should have been 17. If so, that missing value had to be 85,800 in order to be consistent with the median and average values given (90,000 and 123,100). But yesterday's explanation to David just added to the confusion. The statement, "I threw out the two condo sales as well as the two sales outside of Sullivan County", suggested that four had been removed from a list of 17 to yield 13. But, no, there were 5 missing numbers from the previously posted list of 16 (55,500; 75,000; 82,500; 172,900; 175,000). There were also two new numbers added (87,450; 86,000), and the low point ($29,000) had grown by $900.

These errors do not inspire credibility. There were similar inconsistencies in the data posted a couple of weeks ago by this same person, although that was under one of more than 20 other aliases that the poster has used in the past 2 months either to post data, or to debate with himself (e.g., today, as Wally).

Information may be comfort food, but misinformation is much harder to swallow.

[Vickie]

You all are kicking a DEAD HORSE!!

[FdLender]

Madoff Free on Bail.....

Let the games continue!!

WooHoo!!!!!!

[Rod]

Mal, when did credibility become a prerequisite for posting here? Have you not been reading over the last year?

Why choose somewhat accurate data to delete instead of totally unsubstantiated exagerated opinions of economic gloom/doom?

[bix]

Well, you can post whatever you want on the largely unused Sullivan County Bulletin board, and post a link here. Would love to get traffic (of any kind).

http://sullivancountybbs.proboards.com/index.cgi

Not to say that it shouldn't be posted here. I'm not sure what the fuss is all about.

[JM]

Vickie, kicking a dead horse is understating it.

These guys are talking silly stats on an imploded market.
They don't recognize that they are whirlpooling on the Event Horizon of a Black Hole.

JM

[friday910]

"Death By Black Hole" http://fora.tv/2007/02/09/Death_By_Black_Hole