Welcome New Visitors

Welcome to all the folks dropping on by from the NY Times article today. You've surfed over to the blog part of my website. There's lots of information here about real estate in the Sullivan County part of the Catskills, and lots of opinions. But there's a lot more, too, over at my main website, www.catskill4sale.com, including a monthly Current Market Conditions report, lots of information about Sullivan County real estate and areas, and a Sullivan County multiple listing property search.

For folks who just want to take a quick look at some houses I consider good values, I've pulled together a group of 11 Value Picks ranging from $159,000 to $299,000, that have a lot of features that many second home buyers, in particular, are often looking for. I'm not saying that all of these houses are priced quite where they should be to sell, but all have some interesting aspect that makes them stand out from other houses at their price point.

Comments

[Alex]

Dave, great reading your blog. As young brooklyn parents with 2 children - and a very busy work life - you make us feel as if were away in smallwood when we can't be there, especially since we only get to visit our home maybe once a month. Just a thought, consider adding homes less expensive than the 159k asking price. We have friends that love sullivan county and are in corporate America who are starting to consider looking, thinking that this period will be a lost opportunity with regards to the future. But in our neck of the woods, Bay Ridge to be exact - where homes are being purchased for no less than 750K, even 159K is a bit much for a second home, especially when taxes in Sullivan average at $3,000.00, which we will never understand. Western Sullivan is beautiful, but quite pricey. There are definetely homes, at least in Smallwood, which are very decent and year round, which probably can be purchased in the $120's. Dave, keep up the articles......please!!!!!

[David Knudsen]

Alex, thanks much for your comment. Yes, there are certainly good values in the $100K to $150K range, but its not a part of the market that I personally stay on top of. I don't do a lot of work in Smallwood, so am not really the go-to guy for good values in that sector. My colleague at Catskills Buyer Agency, Kathy Rieser, does do a lot of work in that market range and I'd encourage you to connect your friends up with her to explore options. Kathy's email is kathy@catskill4sale.com. She's pretty low profile and doesn't have a big web presence, but is really good at finding interesting houses in the affordable end of the market.

[Artur]

Great blog! I know the area well, and have been a weekend resident for over two decades. I think there are certainly some great values to be had in the area.

I came to your site from the NY Times story (like many today) -- And I have to say -- that while the underlying value of Catskill properties is still there, there are just so many wishful sellers that the area is most likely going to see a long protracted decline, rather than a quick one.

Take Mark and Lisa Hellman -- a typically clueless set of buyers who bought a home for $275k in 2004 at the top of the market. They loaded it full of [deleted] (spending $500k on a gut renovation - LOL!) and now as the market is falling to pieces they expect to draw a *profit* by selling the home for $1 Million. Yeah, uh... good luck with that!

[Rod]

Ouch.

[andy]

Making a bad bet doesn't necessarily mean you are "clueless." There was a strong marketing wave, abetted in lots of places including web, that back then seemed to be carrying Sullivan up, up and away. I fell for it too and overpaid for my house (though fortunately I didn't have the means to go in as deep as the couple in The Times.) I don't have to sell, but I also doubt the market will take my house back up to the level it was. Yes, I do kick myself when I think about the increment of overpayment that I'll most likely never recover. But I get a lot of pleasure out of the house, including right this minute, when I'm sitting in a rocker, watching the snow fall among the tall trees out my front window. So it goes.

[Rod]

If you saw the trailer next door, and the small amount of acrerage included in the purchase, the 'clueless' part of it gains some traction. They definitely could have benefited from Dave's analysis of million dollar sales (almost non-existant, even during the boom, even for perfect homes).

Sorry for posting so much - I'm waiting for my wife to get ready so we can hit the road. Figure it's better than beeping the horn in the driveway.

[bix]

Sure, most people don't buy second homes as an investment -- it's purely a lifestyle decision, or at least it should be. In my case, I bought a second home over the summer not because home prices had come down, but because I could afford to do so. I obviously have no plans of selling, period. This is not like a stock, after all.

By the way (forgive the self-promotion), but I've just started up a bulletin board for general Sullivan County issues, including second home buyers. It's all pretty new so it hasn't got much of a following just yet, but I'd encourage people to post questions there too. http://sullivancountybbs.proboards.com/index.cgi

[Wiseman Local]

A word to the wise:

Don't be fooled to think it will be sold. It will still be available in a few months or years.
Watch out for the natural gas drilling which will rape the land.
Sullivan county is in a fiscal crisis and depression.

[Chris]

I was wondering--how come no mention of the gas drilling in the Times article? I know for a fact the specter of the environmental impact has shooed people away from buying in the county. You can't discuss the real estate downturn without mentioning the gas drilling.

[mal]

Chris, the Times did address the issue of gas drilling in Sullivan county in an article just a couple of weeks earlier ( http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/nyregion/19drill.html ). A major thrust of that article was that the environmental impact of drilling is a threat not only to residents of Sullivan county, but also to NYC residents, through their water supply.

There is a lot of contradictory information on the internet about the potential risks and benefits of gas drilling, and much of it is very speculative for Sullivan County given that so few specifics are yet known about gas drilling plans, or the regulatory review of those plans. Unfortunately the EPA lost jurisdiction for gas drilling as part of a gift to industry buried in the Energy Policy Act of 2005, but there is a bill currently under house committee review that would repeal the exemption for hydraulic fracturing. If that passes, and if the EPA becomes more responsible in the Obama administration, I think we'll at least see rigorous standards and oversight. Meanwhile the NYS DEC has promised a thorough independent environmental review of gas drilling in Sullivan county. Apparently they have promised to require complete information about chemicals used in the process, and evidence that water contaminated in the process can be securely stored. I guess it depends on your perspective how you see this playing out. For now the drop in oil prices has delayed the perceived urgency for gas drilling, but perhaps a new Obama energy plan will include some role for gas drilling. Of course the potential environmental impact is a huge concern for residents, but if it could be done safely it would provide a valuable economic stimulus to the county. Some say it would scar the landscape, others argue that the technology exists to make the visible impact minimal. Buyers are right to consider this issue seriously, but it isn't obvious whether drilling will ultimately lower or raise property values.

[Rod]

It's ridiculous to think educated people can't evaluate real facts (weekly sales data) and need to be protected from it, but can read past numerous posts like 'wiseman local' above. It's illogical for an information-centric site. Allow completely unfounded conjecture(almost entirely negative), but delete public record facts. I'm pretty sure I'm old enough to swallow real data, warts and all.

Great post Mal - sums it up well. Our biggest fear is all the new mountain-man wealth racing their new F-350s up and down the roads.

[Father down the road]

I couldn't agree more Rod.

Weekly closing sales data are just that - facts.

They should be used along with a one, two or three month running average and median sold prices - along with original offering prices and DOM.

Why hide it? The deals are done - and it has been stated before - they are part of the public record.

Add up the weekly data each week into a month - and then add up the months into quarters.

Do whatever you want with the data but make it available.

At this point, I think David should instill some sort of username / password on this blog for people to post. There are many server side free scripts available using PHP, ASP , etc.

Happy New Year to all,
Father down the road

==================================

[Reg writes]
"On a blog, there is no expectation of freedom of speech. It is David's outlet, and as such it is controlled by him. You are not in a publicly funded venue. If you feel like people need to hear your voice, start a blog of your own.

You are a guest here."

Posted by: Reg | January 04, 2009 at 04:03 AM

[Jesus' Father]

Gas Drilling is dead in the water

[bix]

"Stalled" is the correct word.

[andy]

Re gas drilling -- uncertainty is as bad for the market as certainty that drilling is coming. In some ways, uncertainty is worse: if you knew that drilling would be confined to a particular area, say near Eldred Preserve (since they signed a big lease), you might feel comfortable buying elsewhere. But the uncertainty is that drilling could occur anywhere and begin at any time -- which is a county-wide stigma. Same is true of the uncertainty surrounding the NYRI powerlines. You don't read every day about NYRI, but it is still steadily pursuing its proposal before the NY Public Service Commission, and proceedings are ongoing in NYRI's application to build 13-story powerlines from Hancock sought through the western part of SC, all the way to Orange County . The market impact of NYRI was underscored just a few months ago when Dave K was quoted in the River Reporter as saying that property in the path of NYRI's proposed route has been rendered "unsaleable." Now, add to that the uncertainty as to where precisely the route will be located (if anywhere). Stock traders don't like uncertainty, and neither to home buyers.

[Rod]

If the gas companies are as lousy forecasting gas sites as they are picking stocks, we got nothing to worry about (CEO of Chesapeake lost most of his personal fortune betting on margin the direction of gas prices).

Gas and Oil were commodity bubbles, which made expensive gas drilling attractive. That bubble is gone for who knows how many decades. It was a 35 yr trend last cycle.

[mal]

The latest information suggests that the NYRI's proposed route through western Sullivan County may soon be dropped from consideration. Community groups and all the leading NY State politicians are opposing NYRI very effectively, so it remains quite likely that the proposal will simply fail. But even if the Public Service Commission's review somehow concludes with approval for a major new powerline, the PSC has recently stated that a route along the existing Marcy-South transmission line makes more sense. Judges involved in reviewing legal challenges also seem interested in the CARI proposal that cabling be buried underground along the NYS Thruway.

e.g., see these articles:

http://www.thedailystar.com/local/local_story_351040018.html
http://www.riverreporter.com/issues/09-01-01/news-nyri.html
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081231/NEWS/812310329/-1/NEWS

[academia]

Interesting detail.

Of the 12 homes sold in the past ten days - eight of them (66%) - were either sold in the towns Thompson or Liberty - which would lead one to believe that it is the primary home buyers - and not secondary - which are making the most transactions since 1) both areas are close to businesses (commuting time) and major thorofares like Route 17 as opposed to the western area of the county and 2) chances are the homes are being used year 'round.

This point would be a good detail for Dave to add in his monthly report.

=Q: In which areas of the county are the homes being sold?=

In addition, the median of prices sold near Monticello, Liberty and Fallsburgh are usually much lower than those of the west (Narrowsburg, Callicoon, Barryville).

X-------------------------X
10 Day
X-------------------------X
12 Homes Sold
X-------------------------X
Average: $133,875.00
Median: $137,500.00
X-------------------------X

[Nick]

> This point would be a good detail for Dave to add in his monthly report.
> Q: In which areas of the county are the homes being sold?
>

Though David already does a heroic amount of work, and though again people are posting weekly data, which David has said is not something he likes, I must say this suggestion is interesting. It probably creates yet another task for David, who already does so much "pro bono" work in posting his analyses, so it seems churlish to ask for more.

That said, if there was a way to see which areas were experiencing the sales volume that would indeed be interesting to read. I think David's already said that posting primary/second home data is just too hard to do accurately. How exactly can one know from a listing and sale how often the owner intends to use the property. In fact the owner themselves may not know. I suppose you could see if they sold a previous primary residence to buy it, or if they are currently residents of the county already, or maybe even see if the mortage was a primary or second home mortgage (though that may not be public, and it's widely known that people fudge that all the time to get the lower rate for the primary home).

So that might not be possible. But geographic distribution would sure be interesting. A deft user of the google maps extensions and apps could even make a map with the closed sales entered on them as they come in. That would definitely be worth checking out, if tedious to maintain. Perhaps one of the many other well-opinionated people who post here that apparently have access to the MLS as well could step up to the plate. ;)

[mal]

David actually did an analysis of West-county vs East-County sales last June:

http://blog.catskill4sale.com/catskill4sale/2008/06/west-county-versus-east-county-performance.html

Sadly, none of us bothered to respond!

[henry]

I agree with Nick... and appreciate all of David's efforts.

FYI. Quote from David's latest monthly report about the percentage decrease in second home buyers in his latest monthly report:

"Second homes seem to be comprising a smaller percentage of the overall sales picture. While there's no way within the scope of my resources to calculate a definitive percentage of second home to total home purchases, there are some indirect measures. For example, for the 3 months ending Nov. 30th, there were only 7 houses sold categoried as lakefront, or 5% of the total. A year earlier, lakefront sales comprised 11% of sales. Of the 7 "lakefront" houses sold in the past 3 months, only 2 were direct lakefront; the others were split lakefront or included a small non0adjacent lakefront access parcel, which accounts partially for the very low average and median sales prices in the chart at left. Notably, of the entire 7, the highest price was only $286,000. We've gone three months without a lakefront home sale above $300,000!"

I think that David also did some work on this topic in his November report (using October data). In this case, I think that he did a labor-intensive, home-by-home analysis. [I can't seem to find this report.]

[compo]

Does anyone know of a link that shows a map of the Marcy-South line? I have land in Bethel close to Lake Superior and I am trying to figure out if this power line will impact me. I apologize if this was covered somewhere else in this blog but I am relatively new.

Thanks.

[Mr Jacobs]

Poor guy can't even get $2500 per acre after 3 years on the market.

http://catskills.craigslist.org/reo/981205334.html

[mal]

Compo, this ortho map shows where the Marcy South route passes near Bethel: http://www.nyri.us/pdfs/Article7/Ortho-Alts-400-Locus-1_1C.pdf

I tried to post a longer explanation, with more links, but it was rejected as spam.

[client # 9]

Mr Jacobs,

That 125 acres runs right through NYRI and it only has 40' rd frontage.
It's a giant dark pine forest. Topo is horrible and taxes are like 12k (without a house)

[andy]

It just isn't the case that NYRI's preferred route -- through western Sullivan County -- "may soon be dropped from consideration." NYRI is showing no inclination drop its effort to win approval of that route. While the PSC staff has endorsed a different route, the staff doesn't control the Commissioners who actually vote. They are business-friendly Pataki political appointees. The application process is full-bore underway, with a decision by the PSC expected later this year, but that schedule could very well slip, and even if the PSC rules against NYRI, years of court litigation over that ruling -- with all the attendant uncertainty as to the outcome -- are inevitable. It would be, in my opinion, a huge mistake to assume that the danger to western Sullivan County has lessened to any degree. Google NYRI to check out any number of sites that will tell you a lot about the project.

[David Knudsen]

the east west split would be an interesting statistic to track over time. it really doesn't make that much sense as a single snapshot, because there are more people/houses/density in mid to east county than west county, so the statistic becomes only really interesting to see over time as a change in the percentage of overall sales.

However, tracking and analyzing this data isn't my full time job. Though I do appreciate suggestions about other ways to look at the data, and from time to time, do try to look at it through different lenses. I wish there was a way to automate the data compilation and display, over time, by township, with mapping. But I don't have access to the actual raw data in the database to overlay a program to do that (if I had the programming skills to do it.)