It's stunningly beautiful here today — over 50 degrees and sunny! It's about time we got our "January thaw." When you sell real estate, the weather is a key concern. Is it going to be too cold, too icy, too rainy or too snowy to show property? Do I need to throw the snowshoes in the Durango, along with the shovel, the salt and the sand? Do I need to remind folks in the milder clime of NYC to come prepared? I rely a lot on weather websites, and different sites have different information.
I wanted to share my favorites, and also ask for any recommendations for sites you look at. So here's my rundown:
National Weather Service This is the grandaddy of weather sites, with the latest watch and warning updates. The current conditions reporting, though, is only from Monticello, which is lower (and often warmer) than further north in the county. I like the 3 day history, as well as the forecast discussions.
Wunderground.com I like this site because, when I put in the zip for Callicoon, 12723, it pulls current conditions from Tennanah Lake, which is sometimes more accurate for areas further north in the county than the NWS pull from Monticello.
Weatherbug For Callicoon (12723), Weatherbug reports current conditions from a reporting station at the Damascus School, just across the Delaware River from Cochecton.
Intellicast has the best radar maps. They're detailed, and easy to scroll and zoom. I particularly like the feature where I can mouse the whole map west or south to see what's coming.
If you have a site that you particularly like, please post it in a comment. Also, is anyone aware of any weather webcams up here that show the current weather?
I'm a private pilot (sometimes) and this one's my favorite:
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/
It's actually the same underlying website as the NOAA/NWS one that David links to first. But it's fun to check out the ADDS section of the site, which is focused on aviation.
But I find it helpful too when planning road trips, or trying to use Jedi powers to predict the future by looking at the big picture. Like the prog charts and satellite images can give you some context (ie the whole NE is snowing under, and there's a system in Ohio still coming) that your local report may not. If you're the geek type and feel adding something to the roster...
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/progs/
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/satellite/
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/winds/
Posted by: Nick | February 11, 2009 at 06:35 PM
Good morning all.
It's Friday and time for the current three month data for closed sales in Sullivan County.
The time period is from 11/13/2008 through 2/13/2009:
=====================================
108 Houses Sold - SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY
MEDIAN PRICE: $137,000 (as of 2/13/2009)
=====================================
(Current median is down about $10,000+ from Dave's posted median of $148,500 from 11/1/2008 through 2/1/2009)
Posted by: b. | February 13, 2009 at 08:27 AM
B's data -- looks like a falling knife to me.
Posted by: ar | February 13, 2009 at 09:23 AM
Thank You b
independent data is appreciated these days as many realtors and sellers prefer an opaque market.
Posted by: Jack | February 13, 2009 at 09:26 AM
David, thanks very much for these very useful weather links. I have used weather.com in the past, and these four are clearly superior. It's particularly interesting to see the slight variation in reports from the different sites. Those Intellicast rader maps are awesome.
Web cams at strategic locations throughout the county would certainly be useful. Oddly there seem to be several in neighboring areas of PA, but not in Sullivan county.
e.g., there's this one at the Damascus Area School, Damascus, PA:
http://wwc.instacam.com/instacamimg/DAMCS/DAMCS_l.jpg?rnd=15-021320091703
Posted by: mal | February 13, 2009 at 05:54 PM
That's the understatement of the year, Jack. But what's crazier is that smart people don't independently verify the assertions.
Posted by: Chuck | February 13, 2009 at 06:31 PM
Written by "Chuck":
"That's the understatement of the year, Jack. But what's crazier is that smart people don't independently verify the assertions."
Posted by: Chuck (and yes...an email link to 'The Catskill Farmz' | February 13, 2009 at 06:31 PM
============================
The data came from the public record and 'The Credit Bulletin' Chuck.
$137,000 - median.
B.
Posted by: b. | February 13, 2009 at 08:17 PM
Uh, oh, Chuck's back and shilling. You KNOW the market's in a tough spot. (Get ready for his rebuttal post insisting that they're lined up from White Lake to Battery Park begging for a chance to pay $200K-plus for a one-bedroom, 900-square-footer in a market where money like that can buy a large house on acreage with a view.)
Posted by: lorenzo | February 14, 2009 at 02:46 PM
Lorenzo,
You're *too* much!
Chuck P.
Posted by: Chuck | February 14, 2009 at 02:56 PM
Lorenzo, please clue me on on where I can find those large houses on acreage with views for $200,000. I have a number of clients who would love to buy one, but I'm not finding them.
Posted by: David Knudsen | February 15, 2009 at 08:51 AM
What something is offered for and what that something sells for is - most of the time - two different figures - way different figures.
Best bet:
When in doubt...MAKE AN OFFER!
And you tell 'em - it's all for nought - if that house doesn't appraise.
L.
Posted by: L. | February 15, 2009 at 09:18 AM
Dave, to take but one of many examples, look at listing R-23921 on the Freda web site; according to sign in Freda office, it's sold. 4 br 1.5 bath on 9 acres. List was $229 (after intermediate reductions), so based on the general ask-to-sale ratio I've seen on this site, fair to assume it sold for about $200K if not less. This ain't no "mini" house. Prices are simply amazing in this market: if you look around and double-check what you're told by sellers and agents, you can get amazing buys on full-size houses on full-size properties.
Posted by: lorenzo | February 15, 2009 at 01:25 PM
Nice house! Long Eddy is a bit far, but I'd be curious to know more about the property and why it fetched such a (seemingly) low price.
Posted by: Bix | February 16, 2009 at 12:40 PM
It's still for sale Bix.
Bankhead
Posted by: Bankhead | February 16, 2009 at 01:09 PM
Oh, Lorenzo's post indicated it had sold. Occasionally, back in my househunting days, I found that houses that seemed so great usually involved a compromise that was not immediately apparent. If not, they'd go quickly. I'd be curious to know what's holding down the price of this one.
Posted by: Bix | February 16, 2009 at 02:30 PM
There is no doubt in my mind, that a home asking between 250k and 280k can very likely be purchased for approx 200k to 225k ...and this would not be a mini house..at all!!!!
It's apparent that people who are willing to drop upto 250k in Sullivan today, are most likely looking for something in the low to mid 300's, not in the 200's.
Posted by: alex | February 16, 2009 at 03:36 PM
Bankhead, although the Long Eddy house (including barn and studio/garage) appears to be available on the Freda website, in the Freda office there is a flatscreen TV that displays their listings, and I believe i saw that house listed as sold on the screen. Whether my recollection is correct or not, my point was to answer Dave regarding examples of large houses on acreage with views in the 200K range, versus advertised "mini" houses for north of 200K offering one bedroom and less than 1,000 sq ft. The latter may have sold during the boom, but during the current crash that same money gets a lot more house (especially when you factor in the huge premium you pay in taxes for new construction -- a number that is only going up in the future). And my larger point is, man, I wish I was buying now, because today $200K buys you some amazing stuff in terms of size of house and property.
Posted by: lorenzo | February 16, 2009 at 04:47 PM
lorenzo, agree 100%. 200K today buys you a serious house in Sullivan. Anyone who can spend 200K and can't find a home is abviously doing something very wrong, unless they're looking for a half-million dollar purchase at 200k. In all honesty, I wish I was buying now, not 2 yrs ago. Probably would be picking up almost double the house.....lucky ME!!
Posted by: alex | February 16, 2009 at 05:17 PM
I wouldn't be so sure that a 280K house is going to automatically sell for 200. Also one needs a good deal more information before forming an opinion on the value of the Long Eddy house.
Last year I saw "sure things" numerous times that crumbled on closer inspection. (Mold, poor location, bad neighbor, on main road, etc. etc.) The ones that were worth it were snapped up pronto close to the asking price. It's not a big market, and only a short period of time was required to learn what distinguished the few worthwhile houses from the many that were not very good.
Posted by: Bix | February 16, 2009 at 09:47 PM
Check out these extraordinary houses sold atop Callicoon mountain, linked to Ducey Real Estate site. Read how the asking prices came down and down and down, along with Mr Ducey's speculation that at least one of these beauties went for low 200s. Bix, hard to find fault with these houses at these prices. No "mini" houses here. http://jduceyrealestate.blogspot.com/2009/02/barriger-houses-in-contract-in.html
Posted by: lorenzo | February 17, 2009 at 12:25 AM
A friend of mine just bought a nice farmhouse in Wawarsing on 90 acres for 260k
I think she said it needs some cosmetics but the bones are good and the land has over 100 apple/fruit trees.
Does anyone know if that is alot or very little for up there?
I am new to the catskills.
Jackie
Posted by: Jackie Terrone | February 17, 2009 at 01:25 AM
lorenzo even if JD is right, that Callicoon house is still in construction, without a certificate of occupancy. It will need quite a bit more cash and effort to finish.
and bix that house in Long Eddy apparently needs a septic system, new flooring, and redecorating throughout. The listing says the house is 1931 sqft, but that must include the garage studio. the house itself is much smaller. Also, there is no view beyond the property itself.
Posted by: mr | February 17, 2009 at 01:52 AM
It doesn't sound that any of the commenters have seen either MLS 23921, the Long Eddy house mentioned on Freda's website, or the 3 "Barriger" houses above Callicoon. The Long Eddy house sits almost above Route 97 on John Deck Road. It's also 14 miles from Callicoon, the nearest town. In my experience, someone who's willing to be that far from town is looking for a place that's very quiet and secluded, which just isn't the case with this house, even though the specs — 1,900 sq. ft. house on 9 acres foir $229K — look great.
Regarding the 3 houses that John Ducey references in his blog post. Yes, the 3 houses do have good views. However, you have to have nerves of steel to navigate the road to get to those houses with the view. It's been the road up to those houses (which has been reworked at least once) that's been the challenge in getting them sold. Buried in John's post is one comment that's very telling, regarding one of the houses - "The driveway is very steep, and was washed out when I was up there." I've shown these houses a number of times over the years, and the road access was always the "deal killer". But clearly, at the right price, there are buyers willing to take on the challenge.
Posted by: David Knudsen | February 17, 2009 at 07:14 AM
Ongoing litagation has a way of making one need some moolah thus reducing your offering prices - whether they be real property, stocks, bonds or metal.
See:
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090110/BIZ/901100313/-1/BIZ25
Posted by: judge jerry | February 17, 2009 at 08:00 AM
mr, David--that detail helps, thanks. Can I assume you've seen the house?
As I suspected, that house has multiple issues that account for its low price. Plus it is NOT in Sullivan County! I'm not even sure why we're talking about it. (By the way, David, the MLS number is not recorded on the Freda website).
The Long Eddy house's location would have put it outside of my house-hunting in the spring. It's price, when you factor in the negatives, put it in the same price range of the houses I was looking at last spring.
As for the ones about Callicoon: based on my limited experiences this winter, I think anyone who'd buy a house with access road issues would have to be insane.
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