Current Market Conditions Posted with January Data

The latest monthly Current Market Conditions Report is up, with January sales data culled from the Sullivan MLS. For the 3 month period ending January 31, 2009, there were 106 closed single family sales with a median sales price of $148,500. Taking January alone, as a single month, the picture wasn't quite as bright, with just 31 closed sales for the month and a median sales price of $129,000. There are a lot of factors at play right now — a significant percentage of foreclosure sales at the low end, a lot of bargain hunting, and a somewhat surprising pick-up in interest among discretionary, second home buyers shopping for a deal.

Check out this month's Market Conditions Report and then drop on back and leave your comments on the blog.

Comments

[bix]

Seems like a good time to buy if you want a little shack. It reminds me of the early nineties, when tiny studio condos in the West Village were going for the high five figures. Seems to be a lot of cheaper properties, based on the median sale price.

I would dearly love to be able to see exactly WHAT those houses are that just sold, what their original asking price was etc. That is what I hate about the real estate market. It is the last remaining vestige of opacity.

[Cleaver]

Transparency is what we need and realtors hate it.

[morning news]

Memo to Dave.

How can you get people motivated to buy discretionary items - like a second home - regardless of value - when they continually read headlines like the unemployment numbers that were released this morning?

At:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA5FE8FAF%2DC299%2D4EB4%2DBDE6%2DBADB3C394840%7D

U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS PLUNGE 598,000 IN WORST MONTH SINCE '74; JOBLESS RATE HITS 7.6%

Payrolls plunge 598,000, the most since 1974
Unemployment rate jumps to 7.6% on widespread job losses

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:31 a.m. EST Feb. 6, 2009

(MarketWatch) - The fury of the recession intensified in January, as the unemployment rate jumped to 7.6% while nonfarm payrolls fell by the largest amount in 34 years, the Labor Department reported Friday.

[JJ]

Catskills article in NY Times today...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/greathomesanddestinations/06havens.html?_r=1

[David Knudsen]

morning news, I don't "get" anybody to do anything. A point to remember is that most people still have their jobs, and there are quite a few folks that still have money. Yes, the economy is a mess, and the short to mid term outlook is pretty bleak. There are some people who see that as an opportunity. It's a point I've emphasized in this month's Current Market Conditions report. There are second home buyers returning to the market, and for the most part, they're looking for great opportunities. It is certainly a contrarian position, but not insane. Everyone I've been working with lately is shopping for a home for personal use rather than solely for investment. They're not looking for a quick flip, but for a home to use for 5 to 10 years or more. Of course, they're very value focussed, and want to minimize the short term downside risk. But they sense — correctly, I believe — that there are some attractive values to be found, particularly if they have more of a "buy and hold" rather than "flip and profit" strategy.

[garbage]

garbage, all garbage

[Holly Go!]

Mea culpa Dave.

You're in sales. Right.

Delete "get" insert... "suggest".

;-)

Holly Go Nightly

[Chuck P]

Dave - great report - really great, obviously from a veteran of the front lines of area real estate. A perspective earned only through doing, not pretending.

What I find is an interesting byproduct of this downturn are the earnest discussions being had among developers/builders and the top tier real estate crowd (freda, knudsen, mckean to name some, but not all). It has been a candid conversation with much less bravado and confidence and more humility than ever could have been imagined a few yrs back.

I think it's an incredibly more interesting business environment presently than the last few yrs when every speculator was a genius risk-taker.

[Bix]

@morning news: I suspect that people buy second homes because of their personal financial circumstances, not because they read about unemployment figures in the newspapers. I was willing to buy back in 2007 but I just didn't have the income at the time. I did in '08 so I bought then.

As a long-term holder, I just can't get too upset about housing prices declining. Right now I see no evidence that the house I bought last summer (we closed at the end of August) would have cost very much less today. But even if the bottom fell out, there's not much I could do about it.

[manny]

What I find is an interesting byproduct of this downturn are the earnest discussions (!) being had among developers/builders and the top tier(!) real estate crowd (!) (freda, knudsen, mckean to name some, but not all). It has been a candid conversation with much less bravado and confidence and more humility (!) than ever could have been imagined a few yrs back.

I think it's an incredibly more interesting business environment (!) presently than the last few yrs when every speculator was a genius risk-taker(!).

Posted by: Chuck P of...The Catskill Farms! | February 06, 2009 at 07:31 PM
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[cfranch]

The new stimulus package has a $15K tax credit for purchases of primary residences. I currently rent in Manhattan and used to own in Sullivan Co, Miami and Manhattan. For the obvious tax reasons I am eager to buy again. My choice was either to buy in Manhattan or SC. This tax credit pushes me towards Manhattan. I wonder how many others are in the same position as me?

[ar]

I share Bix's frustration at the lack of concrete examples. Tantalizing but vague talk about "deals" on unspecified houses that represent "good value" doesn't provide a lot of information. Let's see if anybody can put flesh on the ghost. In a post back on Nov. 4, 2008, Dave linked to several of his latest "favorites" -- houses that he believed represented (came close to representing) that elusive "good value" benchmark. Does anyone know how many, if any, of those "favorites" have gone to contract in the three months since that post? If any, which ones and for how much. Now THAT, I think Bix would agree, would be enlightening information.

[David Knudsen]

OK, I'll bite. MLS listing links expire after 90 days, so I can't pull up the links of "good value" houses I posted in November. But I have a pretty good recollection of what I would have chosen back then. There were probably about a dozen houses across a range of prices I had my eye on as "good values". Of those, 2 have sold and one is in contract. "Grandma's Farmhouse" on 9 acres near Pond Eddy was listed at $259,000 and sold for $240,000. A house with lake rights to Lake Devenoge, listed at $240,000 sold for $210,000. A renovated farmhouse on Van Tuyl Road near Barryville, listed at $185,000, is in contract.

Houses at higher prices didn't fare as well. None of these houses have found a buyer as yet: Plank Road Craftsman, $249K; Fremont Center Schoolhouse, $279K; North Branch Farmhouse, $299K; Keller Road farmhouse on 85 acres, $699K; Basket Road farmhouse on 171 acres, $799K. There are also two lower priced properties that I'm surprised haven't sold — a foreclosure sale of a log sided house on Decker near Glen Spey, listed in Nov. at $189K and now down to $164K, and a small farmhouse on Midway outside White Sulphur Springs for $179K.

This isn't that surprising, in that these houses are more "second home" in style and setting, and during the 4th quarter of 2008 activity in the discretionary second home market slowed to a crawl.

[Bix]

That's very helpful, thanks David. It also reinforces my understanding that houses that are desirable and realistically priced wind up selling for fairly close to the asking price, even with the economy going to hell.

I'm surprised about that house in White Sulfur Springs too.

[ar]

Thanks for that information, Dave. Really helps in understanding the market. Seems that at current prices you can get an awful lot of house/property for the money.

[alex]

Dave, although the 2 "second-style" homes are fairly priced, I feel that second home buyers pay much much much attention on taxes. At least in my case, while I was looking at homes, I found many areas in Sullivan taxed very high, especially a home I liked in White Sulphur Springs. The high cost of taxes, at least in my opinion, becomes more of a make or break point during a very much struggling economy. But, most definitely, homes that are priced right I believe sell, even with the economy as such.

[Tom V]

Your writing is well researched and thorough. You give a holistic approach to real estate trends and unlike other realtor, you don't emphasize the negative or the positive. This is a sign of a writer who gives a straightforward pictureof the current market as well as the future.

Nice work, Tom

[magician]

what about new home figures? many builders offer great incentives to buy brand new. can we have some info on them?