Totally Adorable

My colleague, Kathy Rieser, and I went on a house preview trip on Monday to the southwest part of Sullivan (Barryville, Eldred, Glen Spey). A preview trip is when we print out a stack of new listings (or things we haven't seen) in an area of the county, pack some sandwiches and Diet Cokes, and go driving. (We used to stop for a nice, leisurely lunch. But, heck, times are tough.) The trips are like panning for gold. You sift through mountains of mud and occasionally come up with a nugget of gold. After previewing a property, the listing sheet either gets tucked into a "Keeper" folder, or dramatically flung into the back seat with an exclamation of "What a piece of crap!" Needless to say, at the end of most of these trips, there's more paper strewn around the back seat than tucked into that folder.

This trip yielded three good nuggets. A $179,000 year round 3 bedroom, 2 bath log sided cabin in Black Forest Colony, a $199,000 direct lakefront 2 bedroom cottage on Mohican Lake, and the house in the photo at the left, a totally adorable 2 bedroom seasonal fixer in Black Forest for $119,000. (Click here to check out the 3 listings.)

The cottage in the photo, MLS 25370, is particularly intriguing. It's one of the original hunting cabins, circa 1920, on the property that became Black Forest Colony in the late 1930's. It appears to be in surprisingly good condition, although it is authentically "rustic". There's no indoor bathroom, just an outhouse (although there is indoor running water from a well shared with the old Black Forest cemetery across the road.) The house needs a septic system (to put in a bathroom) and probably a new drilled well, and would need some additional work to make it a winterized, year round getaway. The right person could do so much with this little house. And if someone is looking for a family compound, the "ready to go" $179,000 Black Forest house (in the listing group) is adjacent to this, just up the hill.

Most folks in Sullivan County (including a lot of Realtors) don't know about Black Forest Colony. It's a luscious secret, tucked in near Glen Spey, south of Proctor Road and west of Hollow Road. The Colony was started in the late 1930's by German immigrants (hence the name) as a mountain getaway for hunting and enjoying nature. Most of the houses there are set on 2 to 5 acres, and share about 800 acres of community land that is some of the most beautiful in the county. There's a pond, a river, a waterfall, and miles of trails through the woods. It's sort of like having your own private state park.

Of course, these aren't the only houses we like in the SW part of Sullivan. But these were the 3 we uncovered on this trip and thought you might like to see 'em.

Comments

[Larry]

David,

How is the BFC? How much seclusion does it provide?
Is it good for hunting?

Larry

[David Knudsen]

Yes, BFC permits hunting, but you have to be an actual homeowner, not just a land owner, to be extended hunting rights, and I believe that the homeowner has to accompany anyone they might invite up to hunt (They just don't want folks picking up an inexpensive 5 acre parcel and then using the land as their hunting club, and they don't want someone inviting a bunch of hunting buddies up to roam the woods. I'm not totally sure about the hunting rules, because none of the folks I've sold property to in BFC have been interested in hunting.) Seclusion varies among the houses. The inexpensive fixer is less secluded than the log sided one above it. Neither of these have "run around naked" privacy, but there are houses at BFC that certainly do.

[J]

An outhouse, no shower, and shared water from a well in a cemetary...how many ways can you say yuck!

[ar]

This isn't the first time that 24025 has gotten a plug on this site. Yet it remains unsold. At $4.700, aren't the taxes on the high side for this house?

[Q.]

Hey!

There's not to be any derogatory talk about ACTIVE listings here or you will not be allowed to post comments.

Let's keep this board clean...and green.

Sustainably yours,
Q.

[Bix]

Excuse me, but it's well known that corpses yield health-giving nitrogen.

Actually I tend to agree that this house has got a lot of negatives. No bathroom? Septic system needed? Well needed? Add up all those items and that drives the price of this little place way up.

[organic guy]

Today's New York Times...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/nyregion/27unemployed.html?hpw

City Jobless Rate Takes Highest-Ever One-Month Leap
By PATRICK McGEEHAN
Published: March 26, 2009

In the biggest jump in a single month on record, New York City’s unemployment rate leapt to 8.1 percent from 6.9 percent in February, the State Labor Department reported on Thursday.

[keith]

Hey all,

Was just wondering. How come the 120,000 house that sold on a previous post...was quirky, had bad feng shui, and was not a good representative of what houses should cost. But this house which is listed for the same amount has less land, is seasonal, outhouse, needs lots of work and sits next to a cemetary (talk about bad feng shui!!!!) is listed as a great bargain. ????????????? So if you rep one of these houses it is a great deal....if the other guy sells the house it is quirky and bad feng shui. ??????

[mal]

The fuss about the "quirky" house on Old Hunter Rd that sold for $120k was not about whether it was worth $120k, but whether it's value was ever close to the $225k original asking price. This new offering is also too quirky to be worth $225k, but a different standard is appropriate because the asking price is only $119k. Yes, it's just a small, seasonal cottage, but it has shared rights to a fabulous private reserve of 800 acres, and the cottage has undeniable authentic charm.

[David Knudsen]

My opinions on what's "good" or "not so good" involve a lot of qualitative judgement. It's not just about square footage, acreage or numbers of bedrooms. Over the last 8 years I've been out with hundreds of buyers and seen countless reactions to different houses. Some houses have a constellation of factors that are appealing to buyers — whether it's a $100,000 original Smallwood cottage or a $600,000 renovated farmhouse. Other houses just don't have that same appeal. It's sort of like when you see a beautiful woman or handsome man. You know they're beautiful or handsome, and some other people (like me, boo hoo!) aren't. I suppose there have been scores of doctoral theses on the factors that contribute to a perception of beauty. But for most of us, we don't deconstruct the individual elements, we just have a perception that this person has it and that person doesn't.

It's very similar with houses. You can't always put your finger on it, but you just know that a house is appealing and pleasing. That little house in Black Forest has a certain balance and symmetry that's appealing, and it conveys a nostalgic authenticity that many buyers are attracted to.

Food is another good analogy. If I have $20 to spend, I can buy a bucket of chicken at KFC (which gives me a lot of food for the money), or order rabbit with mustard sauce or cassoulet at Lucien on the lowest east side (which gives me a lot of pleasure for the money.) But you'd be hard pressed to say that the two are equivalent. Or even that KFC is always a better value because you get 6 pounds of food for twenty bucks, compared to one pound of food. I might argue that the rabbit in mustard at Lucien is the better value because in my opinion it's the best in New York City, and the pleasure of eating it goes beyond its caloric fuel value.

[Christie B.]

I think you're pretty good looking, David.

[Bix]

I've heard that buying a bucket of chicken at KFC can mean a different kind of rodent (not rabbit). But that's an urban legend, of course.

[keith]

I see. But tell me would you eat at Lucien if it didn't have a bathroom and was opposite a graveyard so that when you sat outside at the outdoor cafe you got to see people leaving flowers and grieving as you ate your rabbit. I would guess your rabbit wouldn't taste so good then. And then when you found out your 20 dollar rabbit was actually going to cost you 30 dollars because you had to help catch the rabbit first and then spend time in the kitchen cooking it. Suddenly that 20 dollar value is not really what you thought it was. I just found it funny that feng shui was such a big downer on the other house but the one across the street from a graveyard with no bathroom is a charmer. That's all.

[ar]

Sure there are a host of inarticulable intangibles that make one house more appealing than another. But I do think there is a bias on this site toward a particular aesthetic -- a bias that sometimes is limiting and myopic. 24025 fits the bias, and has been plugged at least three times on this site, and yet it sits unsold. Below is a link to a house in the Beechwoods that was on the Klimchock web site for a heck of a shorter time than 24025 has been listed, and now it's shown as sold. I can't imagine Dave ever giving it - or any house that looks like it -- a boost with his coveted "favorites" designation. Although the site's version of political correctness frowns on saying this, the verdict among the "hip" crowd is that this house is an ugly duckling. But apparently it is sold, while 24025 can't get a date even with Dave's seal of approval. True I don't know the selling price and there could be any number of explanatory factors about which I'm ignorant. But I sometimes wonder, Dave, whether you are just a bit captive to a cliche when it comes to what receives your blessing and what doesn't.

http://www.klimchok.com/c-3506.html

[David Knudsen]

Sure, I have a point of view. I tend to work with more urban second home buyers, who also have a point of view, and an aesthetic they're drawn to. The house you mentioned in a vinyl sided modular ranch. I've shown plenty of those in my career, but the folks that tend to work with me don't gravitate to those types of houses. I focus on certain types of properties, and am not hesitant to admit to a potential buyer that I'm not necessarily the best person to work with for other types of houses. By the way, that Klimchok listing was on the market for 314 days.

[Gleason]

Folks,

==========================================
12/30/2008 through 3/30/2009 (Three month)

CLOSED SALES - SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY

79 HOMES SOLD

MEDIAN PRICE: ***$125,000***

==============================================

And to the interesting point from below, if you take the a few of the top tier homes that have sold in the current three month period listed above, you'll see that the differential of CURRENT offering prices to closed sales is over 20%.

For example:

400/305 (23%), 329/235 (29%), 649/545.5 (16%), 500/450 (10%),

595/390 (34%), 425/350 (18%)

That's over 20+%.

In fact, if you were to take all the closed sales and query what the *current* offering to closed price was, it is between 25% to 30%.

Additionally, that doesn't take into consideration, the *originial* offering price since houses might be listed with Agency A for six months and haven't sold so the seller changes agencies and lists with Agency B for another six months and the offering price has been dropped.

If one was to compile houses that have sold within the three month period listed above and compared last offering price to sold price it is over 25% - not 18% as posted.

And, if one was to compile houses that sold within the three month period listed above and compare the original offering price to sold price - it is over 30% - 35%+.

Gleason

[David Knudsen]

Looks like the mysterious "b" is back with another pseudonym, and I gotta spend time correcting his or her misinformation. I just ran the data for 12/30/09 through 3/30/2009, and show that there were 66 single family homes sold in Sullivan County reported in the Sullivan MLS, not 79. (Even if I don't filter by "single family", but include seasonals, condos and multi-families, I don't come to 79). I just ran the average bid/ask to the last asking price, and it came to 88%. If I look just at the 9 sales that closed above $300,000, the ratio is the same — 88%. And Gleason is pretty selective about what he or she chooses to pull out as examples. Where's the $1.045,000 Chapin sale that was listed at $995,000? Or the $329K listing that closed at $305K?

And compared to original asking prices, the number is 78%, not the 60% to 65% you're posting.

[Bix]

Re that Klimchok house: the website has other listings that also sold, and also does not indicate what the sale prices were, or where the houses are, and most are a bit more like traditional second-home properties than the 220K one.

As for that one, it's a bit of a surprise, given the small size of the house. Maybe prices aren't falling as badly some might suggest, but then again I don't know what the final sale price was.

[gleason]

Dave,
1. On the first Chapin property the *original* offer to closing price is a 30% bid / ask spread.

2. 12/31/08 through 3/30/09 = 79 closed sales (some are two family and seasonals - however - no rentals in the query)

3. The current median sold price is now $125,000 (not far from what somebody said it would be in the 1Q of 2009 - a few months ago).

4. If you take into consideration the *original* offering price of a property to what it eventually closes at, you'll find the bid /ask is over 30%.

Gleason

[CooCoo]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sales-of-second-homes-fall-30-apf-14781836.html

You know when NAR says 30% down, it means 60% down in reality

[gleason]

30% bid to ask ain't to bad in this market.

[i am the real gleason]

To all you second homeowners out there...from NAR today.

==========

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sales-of-second-homes-fall-30-apf-14781836.html

Sales of second homes fall 30 percent

Realtors group reports sales of second homes down 30 percent in 2008

Monday March 30, 2009, 10:02 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The National Association of Realtors reports that sales of vacation homes and investment properties slid 30 percent last year as tough economic conditions and tight lending requirements shut out buyers.

The Realtors group also said Monday that median sales prices of vacation and investment homes dropped 23 percent to $150,000 as problems in housing market stretched to the second home segment.

Home sales were down across the board in 2008. The Realtors group said sales of primary homes declined 13 percent to 3.77 million last year.

Conducted in March, the 2008 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey includes 1,924 responses.
===========================

Sincerely,
i am the real gleason

[henry]

More data from NAR can be found in the following press release:

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/National-Association-Of-Realtors-967512.html

I was surprised about the median distance to vacation home from primary residence. I don't think that the median buyer is flying. Long drive.

[Caveat Emptor]

Here are a few others.

Offering price to sold price in the last three month quarter.

Nowhere near an 18% differential as posted.

==========

299/200 (33%), 224/200 (11%), 230/195 (15%), 239/195 (18%), 242/195 (19%),
249/180 (28%), 265/172 (35%), 299/172 (42%), 229/163 (29%), 260/159 (39%),
225/152 (32%), 270/150 (44%), 229/130 (35%), 225/128 (43%), 179/125 (30%),
177/110 (38%), 140/110 (21%) and 210/107 (49%).

==========

Cav

[mal]

David, is there a statement accessible to the public concerning the rights of a Sullivan county realtor to use MLS data?

[David Knudsen]

No, the MLS policies aren't available on a public website. The MLS policies document is 19 pages long. Most of it is related to timely input of listings, the information that must be included, how listings are handled when members leave the MLS, etc. Only one part concerns the ownership and use of the listing data itself. In a nutshell, members are prohibited from republishing the raw listing data (except under the terms of Internet Data Exchange, which is the basis for the MLS Search on my website.) We're also not permitted to republish sold listing data. By republish, I mean I can't extract all the individual sold listings for the last 3 months and publish a list of the "solds" on my website. However, the use of compiled data for advertising purposes by members is broadly permitted. So while I can't publish a list of individually identifiable "solds", I can cull an aggregate or compilation, e.g. 22 houses sold last month for an average sales price of $184,000 or whatever.

There are also a lot of rules about copyright, use of photographs, protection of data, allowing unauthorized access, etc. The cardinal sin is letting a non-member use your MLS access. Kind of like back in the heydey of Transcendental Meditation, when you knew you'd be sentenced to some New Age hell if you told anyone your secret mantra.

By the way, I am not a supporter of the hierarchical, controlled MLS system. I'm a vocal advocate for making more information publicly available, starting with the property address on MLS search displays. I also think "sold" data should be publicly available. That would enable folks to look at sold data, and do drive bys to form their own opinions on relative values. It would also be a great tool for owners who are making a case to grieve their taxes.

There is definitely a younger "Google" generation in this business who are more progressive on these issues. Within the Realtor community, we're still in the minority, but the tide is shifting.