Busy, Busy, Busy

No, I'm just not talking about real estate (although I have been busy-busy-busy the last couple of weeks.) I'm talking about the Memorial Day weekend overall up here. Everywhere you go, there are people and crowds — at the farmer's markets, at the lakes, at the garden stores, in the restaurants. I was visiting with some friends last evening who were all commenting on how busy everything was this weekend (with subcomments about how many new faces there seemed to be.)

The almost-perfect weather we've had for the past few days certainly contributed to folks coming to the country for the weekend, and getting out and about. But I think there's more going on. Most second home owners I know had their houses stuffed to the gills this weekend with houseguests. A couple of friends called to borrow my airbeds for last minute overflow.

Holiday weekend houseguesting is a time honored tradition around NYC, and hinting for an invite is a well honed art. Once you become an owner of a country house, you may well find your country-houseless friends may be just a little bit nicer to you. (A hint to those looking for a repeat invite: hosts smile on those who pitch in and help.)

Because of the recession, this may turn out to be the "Year of the Houseguest." Some country home owning friends have already pencilled in houseguests on their calendars through Labor Day. Houseguesting may be yet another example of recession chic. After all, there is a certain panache to telling coworkers on a Friday afternoon that you're heading out to so-and-so's country house for the weekend.

Houseguesting is a far more affordable alternative to a paid vacation, whether flying the family off to Disneyworld or retreating to a lodge in Vermont. A bag of goodies from Citarella or Fairway and a few bottles of good wine are much less expensive than airline tickets to anywhere. (OK, to make that equation work you do have to keep away from the lobster salad at Citarella.)

So I expect we'll have a very busy summer thanks, in part, to our houseguests. While this tsunami of houseguests may take up all the parking spots at the Callicoon farmer's market, today's houseguests are tomorrow's country home buyers. So pump up those airbeds and bring 'em on.

Comments

[Reg]

So where are the good farmers' markets around here? Drive up 42 or 52 and there's nothing. Where are the good ones?

[rod]

"Year of the Houseguest" - that's hilarious.

[David Knudsen]

Reg, you may be thinking of farm stands --- seasonal produce stands that operate every day. We really don't have those (to my knowledge). What I'm referring to are the farmer's markets - a weekly market with different vendors that rotates locations. Thursday in Jeffersonville, Fridays in Liberty, Callicoon and Roscoe on Sundays. You can get the schedule and find out more information at:
http://www.sullivancountyfarmersmarkets.org/

There is also a weekend summer farmer's market that has operated in Barryville behind River Market. I think it's returning this summer. I'm not sure what days. If anyone has more information, please post.

[Helen K]

David, what do farms up there produce besides hay?
I have yet to find one farm within the county that produces anything other than hay.

[Eddie]

All well and good.

In anticipation of Case - Shiller at 9:00am today, let's take a look at the following stats.

==============================================================================================
CLOSED SALES - SULLIVAN BY MONTH (Mar., Apr. and May) and YEAR (09,08,07 and 06) - 1 through 25
==============================================================================================

2009 - May: 16 Homes Sold
2009 - April: 27 Homes Sold
2009 - March: 20 Homes Sold

TOTAL: 63 Homes

-----------------------------

2008 - May: 32 Homes Sold
2008 - April: 40 Homes Sold
2008 - March: 20 Homes Sold

TOTAL: 92 Homes

-----------------------------

2007 - May: 47 Homes Sold
2007 - April: 41 Homes Sold
2007 - March: 41 Homes Sold

TOTAL: 129 Homes

-----------------------------

2006 - May: 46 Homes Sold
2006 - April: 51 Homes Sold
2006 - March: 46 Homes Sold

TOTAL: 143 Homes Sold

-----------------------------

In the time period (month/1 through month/25) of 2006, there was 143 homes sold and in 2009 there has been 63 homes sold.

That's a decrease of 56%!

Dave, 'fess up - the closed sales volume has deteriorated during the past four years. Plus, the total sample size per month that you now take your median and average prices has also decreased thus the current monthly numbers are now more suspect due to _less_ homes being sold.

Shop local, eat your greens and support your farmer.

Respectfully,
Eddie

[David Knudsen]

Eddie, yet again I can't quite replicate your data. For the period 3/1 through 5/25/09, I show 70 Sullivan single family sales reported in the Sullivan MLS, compared to the 63 you post. But also, yet again, your post carries the subtle accusation — when you write "Dave, 'fess up" that I'm cooking the books or skewing the data. I haven't been hiding the fact that sales are way off, and that winter sales activity was pretty miserable.

Closed sales are a trailing indicator, trailing market activity by a couple of months (because of the extended close time.) So the fact that I'm sending a pick up in activity, which started in April but picked up in May, is not at odds with dismal closing numbers for March, April and May. Also, I've been pretty clear that the pick up in buyer activity I'm sensing is not across the board in all market segments, and increased buyer interest doesn't necessarily translate to increased closed sales. But you have to have the interest before you have the sales.

Also, it appears you've become a convert to the concept of "sample size". If I remember correctly, back in December and January, you were posting 2 and 3 week samples of data to illustrate the "collapse" of the market (which I would dutifully counter with broader samples). So it seems a hair ingenuine to label my three month data samples as "suspect", because of fewer homes being sold. Those 3 month samples still have 70 to 80 closed sales, and I'm careful to point out that the average, in particular, can be highly influenced by a single large sale. Also, note that in May, I did not publish sales prices for "lakefront homes" because of the very low volume of sales. So I think I'm being pretty above board here in presenting a balanced picture.

Yes, I do draw some inferences from my own experiences — how many calls and emails I'm getting, the types of property buyers are asking about, the numbers of appointments I have, calls to agents about the availability of properties (and learning that some houses are in deals, or, believe it or not, in multiple bid situations.) Time spent with buyers gives me a lot of information on where their heads are at — and they're in a very different place than they were six months ago. I'm also picking up scuttle on who's busy and who isn't, and what other agents are showing. All this goes into a qualitative broth that simmers down to my inferences. From all of that, I'm sensing a pick up in buyer activity for second homes in the moderate range. I doubt that perception is shared universally among Realtors throughout the county. Many are complaining that it's still dead slow and the phone isn't ringing. But not all of that can be laid at the feet of the "market." Some is also probably due to their marketing or the segment of the market they focus on. And for seller's agents, some of the slowness can be due to the types of houses they're listing, and the prices they're listed at.

[David Knudsen]

Case-Schiller just reported 1st quarter data, and in their 20 city sample, median sales prices were down 19.1% from the 1st quarter of 2008. Not that far out of line with what we've seen here — 1st quarter median sales price for sales reported in the Sullivan MLS were down about 13% from the 1st quarter of 2008. I don't think anyone is challenging the fact that prices are down, except maybe some sellers who are still in la-la land, believing as if nothing's happened.

And Eddie, I want to make one other comment. Saying that I'm seeing a pick up in buyer activity is not synonymous with saying that the market has returned to the frenzied 2006/2007 levels, in terms of either activity or price. In fact, the pick up isn't even close. Sellers, in particular, should be very cautious in interpreting my hints of optimism as a return to a frenzied seller's market.

[Jeff]

On a lighter note, this post reminded me of two things:

Ben Franklin's famous quote: "Houseguests, like fish, begin to smell after three days."

And this hilarious Shouts & Murmurs column from the New Yorker:
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2008/12/08/081208sh_shouts_allen