Current Market Conditions Report Up with September Data

I just posted the latest Current Market Conditions Report, with September's sales data. The suprising news is that the median sales price took a big tumble, dropping to $136,250 from the 3 month period ending September 30th, down almost 10% from the August 3 month tally. Both sales volume and the average sales price, however, held pretty steady. The drop can't be attributed to a jump in foreclosure sales, as they've been holding pretty steady at around 13% of total sales, but the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit (scheduled to expire on Dec. 1st) could be stimulating some affordable/moderate range sales which is pulling the median down.

Check out my thoughts on the market in the latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate then please drop on back and leave your comments on what you see the market doing.

Comments

[henry]

I don't think that 'Buy now or wait' frames the choice for buyers. Buy elsewhere appears more attractive... at least for the upper end markets that I follow. Many (if not most) buyers have a target area that is larger than SC, and as much as I love SC, I see better values in general elsewhere (which is not a knock on Dave's claimed ability to find exceptions/deals). Until this adjusts (prices rising elsewhere or falling in SC), I expect the 500K+ market in SC to remain stagnant.

[David Knudsen]

There are certainly better prices further out --- you get a lot more for your money when you hit the Walton and Stamford, NY areas, for example. But I think within that 2 to 2 1/2 hour circle from NYC, Sullivan County is very competitive. The relative positions of the close in second home destinations are holding pretty steady in my opinion, when I talk to clients who are looking in those other areas.

[Randy]

Hate to be a gloomy gus, but many have told you so since late Spring Dave.

You now state that the median closed price is:

$136,250 for July through September 2009

which brings us back to late 2003 / early 2004 - about six years ago.

To show you how unrealistic sellers are (or how out of touch many listing agents are unless they're sole purpose is to get listings and take them away from other agencies - not in the best interest of their client however)

Here's the spread:

CLOSED:
$136,250

MEDIAN LISTING PRICE - or ASK:
$212,000

Utterly ridiculous.

Good luck Dave.

As many have mentioned, wait until winter and then the sellers begin throwing in their frozen towels.

Regards,
Randy / greenearth === a holistic experience. © 2009

[carlo]

What Dave is seeing in September mirrors what is going on in NYC. A broker friend described August, normally a slow month, as super-busy. September and early October have been very slow. I think there was a window where whomever wanted or had to buy did so. Sellers who priced their properties correctly moved their RE. Most sellers both in NYC and the surrounding areas are still not in touch with reality. The confidence engendered by a rising stock market has only taken us so far. Unemployment in NY remains too high and continues to rise. In NYC at least, there is too much inventory. Here is a taste of things to come for the condo glut:

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20091013/FREE/910139992

[Hal I. Burton]

Mornin' Dave,
Sure won't improve the views that second homeowners crave - will it?

========

Today onliine at:

http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091018/NEWS/910180327

Sullivan County would do well to look at Pennsylvania experience with frackingDrilling has brought benefits and troubles

By Steve Israel
Times Herald-Record
October 18, 2009

Steel yourself, Sullivan County. When the natural gas rush hits the Catskills — and it will — your life and land will profoundly change. This is the inevitable conclusion to be drawn from the drilling boom in neighboring Susquehanna County, Pa., an area that sits on the same gas-rich Marcellus shale formation as Sullivan.

If communities like Dimock and Montrose, Pa., are any indication, gas drilling will alter everything from Sullivan's country roads and pristine vistas to its struggling work force and pure water.

In gas hot spots like Dimock — population, 1,398 — it seems you can't drive more than a few hundred yards without seeing fields dotted with the tall towers of drilling rigs and the blue or green steel "fracking" fluid tanks used for horizontal drilling...{article continues}