Sullivan County Real Estate

Google Check Help, Please ...

I'm a bit of a Google serch engine position junkie. I've work pretty hard at keeping good Google position in organic (non-paid Adwords) search for key search terms, like "Sullivan County Real Estate" for my main site, www.catskill4sale.com. This afternoon I plugged "Sullivan County Real Estate" into Google from my brower and came up #1 (below the map link result for "Sullivan County Appraisal Services") and got all excited to have finally beaten out sullivancountyrealestate.com for the top spot. But like mutual funds "your results can vary", depending on the Google datacenter a search hits. Search results can also be affected by a person's search history. So I'm not really sure I've actually made it to #1.

So, if you have a second, can you go to Google and plug in "Sullivan County Real Estate" and tell me the position where catskill4sale.com comes up (in the organic results, not the paid Adwords at the top, which are surrounded by a light yellow box.)  I'd really appreciate it. Either leave a comment here or drop an email to me at davidk@beechwoods.net. Thanks much.

New Communities Guide

For the past few weeks I've been working on a new Communities Guide for the main site. I've written thumbnail overviews for all the main lake and non-lake communities that are appealing to vacation and second home buyers, from "lock and go" developments like Presidential Estates and Greentree Village, where all exterior maintenance is included in homeowner dues, to our top end gated lake communities, including Black Lake and the Chapin Estate. I've also included Bing Maps aerial views of each community, and, where available, a link to listings for available homes for sale. So far, the guide pages include 30 lakes and communities, and I expect I'll add a half dozen more, like Tanzman Lake and Sheldrake Shores, as time goes by.

I think it's pretty accurate, but I'd appreciate any feedback or comments on things I didn't get right, particularly from folks who are more familiar with some of the communities that I might not know as well, like Camelot Woods and Hidden Ridge. I've broken down the communities into "Affordable/Budget Lake", "Mid Range Lake", "Upper End Lake", and "Non-Lake Communities." They can all be accessed from a main Communities page as well.

Cool prefab modern going up in Black Forest Colony

Over the past week I've been writing up a new set of pages for the main site about the various lake and non-lake communities in Sullivan County. (I've written up thumbnails about 25 communities and have another 5 or 6 to go before I post the pages. I know, I know ... get a life.). Today, when I started working on the non-lake communities, including Black Forest Colony near Glen Spey, I came across a great personal site documenting the planning and construction of a prefab modern home there. It's an interesting site, with some great video documentation of the process, as well as some history about Black Forest Colony. I thought you might want to check it out ---> Villa Straylight at the Black Forest Colony.

Current Market Conditions Report Posted with February Data

My latest Sullivan County Real Estate Current Market Conditions Report is up with February's data. No way to sugar coat it, February was the pits. There were only 16 closed single family sales reported in the Sullivan MLS for the month. Now February is typically the lowest month of the year for closed sales, and I know a handful of closing were pushed back into early March because of the winter storms at the end of February. But the number still came as a shock. For the 3 month period ending Feb. 28th, there were 91 sales, statistically equivalent to the 89 sales for the same 3 month period a year earlier (Dec. 1, 2008 through Feb. 28, 2009), which was the first full 3 month "closing" period following the Lehman meltdown in Oct. 2008.

Prices are a mixed bag, with the 3  month median dropping from $132,000 for the 3 month period ending Jan. 31, 2010 to $120,000 (9%). The average also slid, but only 2.4%, from $162,123 to $158,293. In looking at the single month data, it semms like we're going to hover in the $120,000 median and $160,000 average range for closed sales prices for the next month or two.

Check out the latest Current Market Conditions Report and then drop on back here and post your own thoughts on the latest market trends.

And our competition is ... Florida?

I have a few Realtor friends in Florida that I chat with regularly. They've all commented that the market there has picked up big time over the past few months, primarily with snow bound northern bargain hunters trolling for super deals amidst the foreclosure rubble of the Sunshine State.

Then last week I read this article from CNN Money, Duck! Watch Out for Falling Home Prices. The article is a lot of the same old same old, about the upcoming pull back in government support and the number of properties in foreclosure, or coming into foreclosure. But the shocker (from Moody's) is in the 4th to last paragraph:

"The worst performing market will be Miami, Fla. Moody's projects prices there to drop a heart-stopping 29.2% by Sept. 30. That follows a 47.7% decline the metro area recorded in the past three years. Grand total: 64% drop."

I knew there were deals in Florida, driven by foreclosures and investor pull outs, but that 64% top to trough drop number for Miami blew me away.  (I'm already anticipating comments to this post like "Wait, Sullivan, your turn is next." But Florida has a different set of circumstances, namely speculative overbuilding, and a huge inventory of properties that investors picked up in hopes of flipping and are now walking away from.)

So how does this relate to Sullivan County? The second home market here has two components. One is died-in-the-wool country-ites from the city with dreams of having an organic garden, or fly fishing, or whatever within a couple of hours of NYC. Florida has no attraction to them whatsoever, regardless of the bargains. They want a two hour drive away retreat to pursue their country passions.

But there is another part of our second home market that is less country-committed. Their second home interests are more free ranging. A place in the country a couple of hours from NYC would be nice, but so would a place in the sun in Florida, a couple of flight hours away. Add in the prospect of picking up a super deal with the cherry on top of potential appreciation, and the scales can tip to Florida.

I've spoken with a number of potential buyers who've been kicking around in the Catskills, but also making hunting trips to Florida. (Given the winter we've had, it doesn't take a lot to come up with an excuse to head south!) And in the past month, when I've been with friends in the city and the topic has turned to real estate (which, inevitably, in New York City, it does), there's been a lot of chatter about Florida. I don't have any way to measure this, but at the moment, I think that Florida is formidable competitor for the second home dollars of some New Yorkers.