I've been following the comments on the "Chapin $550K Lakefront Sale" thread closely. Without fail, anytime I post anything on here related to sale prices, it brings out the battle of the bears and the bulls. Ahhh ... "Was it a good deal at $550K, or will be buyers end up in despair and find out they can't unload it in 3 years for half of what they paid? Find out a 11."
Regardless of how bearish you are — a bear cub who sees the top to bottom at, say, 20% to 25%, or a scary old grizzlie who sees nothing but a chasm of downward prices until we hit 60% or 70% off of the top — there isn't a single number that can be applied across the board. One thing I've learned selling primarily in the second home market here for the past 9 years is that fashions change and tastes are remarkably fickle. Four or five years ago, grand houses were in high demand — big "Love, Valour, Compassion" farmhouses with wrap porches, or ever larger Adirondack style lakefront manses ala Chapin. Little charmers could be tough sells.
Now the little affordable charmers are the fast movers, while the bigger trophy houses are languishing on the market. Of course that's a function of the economy. Money is more precious and credit is tougher to come by. Hummers are out, Priuses are in. Because demand has slumped for bigger, more expensive houses, they're likely to see bigger top to trough drops in price than more modest houses that hit a buyer sweet spot.
But size and price aren't the only changes. Up until 2 or 3 years ago, the majority of lakefront shoppers wanted motorboat lakes. It was all motorboat, motorboat, motorboat. Lately, I've been getting far more requests for non-motorboat lakes than motorboat lakes. Of the 25 lakefront home sales over the past 12 months, only 5 have been on motorboat lakes. There seems to be a shift in preference away from motorboat lakes. I'm sure that a good statistician could have a field day with that, looking at economic and demographic correlates. But there seems to be less demand for houses on motorboat lakes, and as a result, those houses may be taking a bigger price hit.
Finally, there areas within the county go in and out of fashion.When I first started working here, there was pretty robust demand for nice second homes around Hurleyville and in the corridor up along Hasbrouck Road into Neversink. Much of that demand could be attributed to the large ashram in that area. The ashram essentially pulled out, demand from city hipsters dried up and property values fell. It wasn't directly related to the recession.
7 or 8 years ago, the "it" place was Jeffersonville, with Narrowsburg, Callicoon and Livingston Manor running close seconds. I seldom showed much around Barryville and Eldred. It was an afterthought backwater, out of sight and out of mind. Then all of a sudden, with the River Market, the Spring House and Ecce B&B leading the charge, Barryville became hot. Then Catskill Farms moved their operations there, and those hip little CF cottages started sprouting like dandelions on the roads around Barryville and Eldred. A house on Mapes Road is even up for a Dwell award. 6 years ago, who wudda thunk? Barryville has arguably surpassed Jeffersonville as the cool place to be.
I'm not saying that anyplace has escaped the recession, or that some type of house magically escaped the real estate downturn. But the second home market is fickle, and taste and fashion play a part in buyer demand and resulting prices. Catskill Farms can't keep up with demand for those little cottages. But tastes and demographics change. When those 30-somethings have kids and their kids have friends and the economy has improved and they feel wealthier, they'll probably want bigger houses or lakefront houses. And the demand profile will shift again.
