Current Market Conditions Posted with May Data

I just posted my Current Market Conditions report, with Sullivan sales data through May, 2010. The picture isn't that much different than last month, or the month before that. Sales volume picked up a bit, which is typical for late spring, but is still quite lackluster. Prices for the 3 month sample period showed a bit of a downturn last month, but after a price bump largely the result of a single large sale, we'll likely end up at a price plateau where we've hovered for months. Buyer interest continues to be strongest at the affordable to moderate ranges, with much thinner interest at higher price points. Please check out the latest Current Market Conditions report over on my main site and then drop on back here to leave your comments on what you see happening in the market.

Comments

[Shel]

Dave,
Thank you for your data.

However, it is flawed.

You continually mentioned the _average_ sold price but by your own admission, the sales volume is way off. If you are going to give your readers a realistic price of what current sold prices are in Sullivan County, please stick with the _median_ price.

Consider the following example of 23 numbers:

45-60-85-85-90-103-105-105-110-116-118-137-150-150-151-162-171-180-205-210-350-400-1,200,000

Wheras the average {n + n, etc... / total amount = average} which would be $195,130

As opposed to the median which would be $137,000.

That's a world of difference Dave.

One high sale skews your data and misleads people (or paints a better picture with rose colored glasses) versus the overall consenus of what is selling and for how much in Sullivan County.

Hope you don't mind the critique.

Shelly

[David Knudsen]

Shelly, I think I'm pretty upfront with that. I even reference a single $1.35M sale that skewed the average up, and I always post BOTH median and average sales figures, and reference how BOTH have moved from the previous month.

[Ken]

It would be interesting to see the data with foreclosures and other types of distress sales separate from the rest. I'm not sure if you've captured all the history with respect to this. It may give a more clear picture of what "normal" houses are selling for vs. "I gotta unload this thing" sales. Seems that foreclosures are still a pretty significant percentage of the overall picture.

[Remson]

"Normal"?

Ken is back in the year of our Lord - 2006 - trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Why?

I would posit that ten foreclosures or short sales are as much a part of the current market picture as one million dollar sale - if not more so - since they are indicatative of a true market picture in Sullivan County in the 2Q of 2010.

Get used to it since you'll see more foreclosures and short sales for the balance of 2010 and into 2011 - and they should be calculated as such into the median.

Remson

[Ken]

They are part of the true market picture, just like a 5 bedroom farmhouse sells at a different price than a one bedroom condo - that's why I'd be interested in the numbers. I wasn't suggesting a sudden return to 2006. Buying a foreclosure or short sale comes with a different set of rules and expectations so it's not something I would just lump together with everything else.