This Blog and Gas Drilling

Recently a lot of folks have been sending me links to articles about gas drilling and hydrofracking, requesting that I post them on my blog. There have also been a number of commenters who've also been posting article and video links, along with their own commentary. Those comments often have the thrust of "after reading this article (or watching this video), why would anyone consider buying in Sullivan County (or even the more general 'upstate'?" When I haven't posted those comments through, I'm getting follow up comments or emails about engaging in a Realtor coverup.

I've been pretty upfront about gas drilling on this blog, and posted quite a few items about it. I don't believe any other Realtor blog or website in Sullivan County addresses it. I've posted about regulatory and legislative milestones, linked to the key drilling opposition websites and to key media resources, including the recent premiere of Gasland on HBO. But I'm quite determined that this blog not become a drilling blog — there are plenty of other places on the web where that topic is primary.

One of the problems we face at the moment in Sullivan County is that the media coverage of drilling and the Marcellus leaves the impression that Sullivan is one single, big undifferentiated risk area, a pre-Chernobyl landscape poised on the edge of environmental Armageddon. If gas drilling comes to Sullivan County — and that's still an open question — drilling will likely have a much greater impact on some areas of the county than others. There are some areas that will likely experience very little impact.

I'm hesitant to get into a public debate about what areas might have less or more impacts. But it is a conversation I'm having with my clients on a regular basis. In the past two months, I've had clients interested in a number of properties where I thought the impacts would likely be higher if drilling comes, and turned them off of those properties. I readily share my opinions with my clients, but they're just that, opinions — because we don't have gas drilling here yet, and don't even have the framework of regulations from the NY DEC that will govern drilling if it does come.

I've invested a considerable of energy to form those opinions. In the past month, I've driven over 500 miles through Susquehanna and Bradford counties in Pennsylvania, looking at active drill sites and drill pads being prepared, as well as driven down roads where drilling occurred a year or two ago. I've gotten out of my car to listen to compressors in all shapes and sizes, and hung out at intersections watching traffic. I talked with a few folks, nothing systematic. I'm not a journalist and wasn't on a quest for a story. I just wanted to see drilling for myself. The criticism could be lodged that I wasn't looking at environmental impacts, but they're becoming quite well documented on the web.

I keep hoping for some studies that don't start with a point of view or in-depth news reporting that doesn't focus on the sensational. Let's face it, the burning water in Gasland is pretty sensational. It got my attention. (By the way, I liked Gasland and learned a number of things I didn't know.) But I want it put in context. What is the incidence rate of contaminated wells? Or what's discharged into the air near gas wells, at what levels, and how does that compare to Clean Air standards? How many gas wells have exploded, and what percentage is that of the total drilled nationwide?

The oil and gas industry lacks any credibility whatsoever as a source for any information. What they spew out just seems like spin from a money-fueled p.r. machine. Listen to them, and they hold to drilling as being 100% safe with minimal environmental impacts, and not one case of water contamination anywhere in the country. Or so that's how they seem to spin it, even when there's video footage of some guy lighting his water on fire! If it's so damn safe, then the industry should remove its objections gas drilling be covered by the Clean Water and Clean Air Acts. They just don't get that they're seen as a Cheney-led Machiavellian cabal with only one objective, to make as much money as they can.

The information on the anti-drilling side is compelling, but it's still selective. I tend to view it as having more "truth" than anything spewed out by the pro-drilling camp, because that's my personal and political bias. I, frankly, don't trust anything from the mouth of Big Energy. But the information from the anti-drilling side isn't as objective as I'd like. A lot of it is episodic, i.e. there was an episode today of a well exploding in Clearfield, PA. And that is certainly dramatic. But what I find lacking is the scientific rigor that puts that explosion into a context of an incident rate.

Is there an acceptable rate of explosions or water well contaminations? That becomes a very interesting debate and matter of public policy. In this country, we have zero tolerance for aircraft maintenance problems. Find a hairline crack in a key metal part, and the plane or even the entire fleet, is grounded until everything checks out. The public demands zero tolerance when it comes to airline safety and government policy follows suit. But other areas of American life are much grayer, where some amount of "pollution", for example, is considered acceptable in the overall economic scheme of things.

That's a question that's at the center of the gas drilling debate. Will public policy be that there is zero tolerance for any mistakes, or is there an "acceptable" level of risk. Politicians like John Bonacic, our state senator (R), may say that they're for drilling if it's absolutely safe, but are they willing to back it up with ironclad penalties that are so onerous that no gas company would even think of taking a shortcut that could lead to a fine? Probably not. Or how about a law that says if you drill and ruin somebody's drinking water well, you buy their property — for double what it was worth before you screwed with their water. Hey, if there's absolutely no evidence of well contamination anywhere in the country, the gas industry shouldn't have a problem with that little law, should they?

Comments

[fritz...no, not THAT fritz]

Very thoughful commentary Dave.

But how on earth do you present, let along sell, a second house in a area that has the potential and uncertainty of huge problems ahead (i.e.; noise, contamination, pollution, sightline destruction, etc.) to your clientele?

I mean - if your buyers wanted all of that - they would stay in the Bronx or say - Linden, New Jersey off the NJ Turnpike.

F.

[David Knudsen]

fritz, your comment absolutely highlights part of the problem --- when you say, "in an area that has the potential and uncertainty of huge problems". Exactly, how are you defining 'that area'? All of Sullivan County? That's kind of like saying to someone, "How can you possibly sell property in New Jersey, that state that is nothing but a string of refineries. I know because I've been in New Jersey. Drove on that thar turnpike." And to imply that even potential drilling areas of Sullivan are going to turn into Linden, New Jersey is the kind of fear mongering that I just don't see grounded in fact based on my trips through drilling areas. And by the way, I live part time in the Bronx, and you may also harbor some stereotypes about that borough that aren't based on facts, either.

[Shelly]

fritz, your comment absolutely highlights part of the problem --- when you say, "in an area that has the potential and uncertainty of huge problems". Exactly, how are you defining 'that area'?

>> Area in Sullivan County that encompass what geologist call The Marcellus Shale.

>> There are plenty of maps online.

>> For the most part, let's call it the Western part of the Sullivan County. Fremont to the north - Bethel to the east - Lumberland to the South.

>> Coincidentally, the same areas that you sell.

------

All of Sullivan County?

>> No.

>> Please see above.

-----

That's kind of like saying to someone, "How can you possibly sell property in New Jersey, that state that is nothing but a string of refineries. I know because I've been in New Jersey. Drove on that thar turnpike." And to imply that even potential drilling areas of Sullivan are going to turn into Linden, New Jersey is the kind of fear mongering that I just don't see grounded in fact based on my trips through drilling areas. And by the way, I live part time in the Bronx, and you may also harbor some stereotypes about that borough that aren't based on facts, either.

>> Please see above.

>> Thank you.

>> It's quite posssible that Western Sullivan might turn into a semi-industrial region in the next five years Dave.

>> Don't take my word for it.

>> Hopefully, you've seen Cornell University Professor Ingraeffea's lecture. If not, he'll be one of the panelists at the second gas drilling symposium in July at the Monticello HS.

S.

[David Knudsen]

Pray tell, Shelly, have you personally driven through 'Gasland'? And no, I'm not taking your word for it. That's why I get in my car and drive for miles and miles. To form my own opinions.
.

[Lissa Harris]

A very thoughtful post, staked out on a middle ground that's getting harder and harder to occupy.

Your thoughts on the relative trustworthiness of the info coming from both sides feels pretty spot-on to me. There are very smart anti-drilling activists that I have a lot of respect for. But I'd also really like to hear more thoughtful talk from people who haven't enlisted as footsoldiers for either side.

My coeditor just put up a post on our Catskills-region website about this.

http://www.watershedpost.com/2010/gas-drilling-and-real-estate

[Shelly]

:Pray tell, Shelly, have you personally driven through 'Gasland'?

>> Not yet.

>> I'm trying to get my HazMat card. How did you get yours?

---

:And no, I'm not taking your word for it.

>> Figure of speech. Well, that's a relief.

---

:That's why I get in my car and drive for miles and miles.

>>...and miles and miles!

>> So, are you saying that "GasLand" was a fabrication - a gross exageration?

>> If so, many in the media were duped by the documentary.

----

:To form my own opinions.

>> Good.

>> However, your clients might have their own opinions formed as well by looking at all the media that's taken this region by storm in the past few months.

>> Yet another obstacle to conquer.

S.

[David Knudsen]

Lissa, thanks much for the reblog. I share your sentiment that it's harder and harder to find a middle ground. I find that with many of my friends I can't even have a freewheeling discussion about the issue. It's like there's a p.c. viewpoint, and heaven forbid you even want to discuss that. I think a good example is the snipe from Shelly above, about where I got my HazMat suit before I drove through the drilling areas in PA.

And, no, Shelly, I don't think 'Gasland' is a fabrication. Just because I'm saying that I would like incidents put into a context, in terms of incident rates, doesn't make me into f*(^ing Rush Limbaugh or put me into the pro drilling camp.

I think this will be a very active, and interesting, discussion thread.

[Mary Ellen]

There is another film that's coming out called "Haynesville" that is supposed to be a counterpoint to "Gasland."

I'm in the unique position of living in a beautiful area that is permeated by gas drilling, plus, I own property in Sullivan county. When I read the hysteria surrounding the drilling in NY, it's hard to not read it as an over-reaction. Air quality is monitored here (for Benzene)and studies have been done to investigate any higher levels of cancer in drilling areas. Of course, you can twist studies any way you like, but the message to alarmed citizens here has been studies that show the contamination is at an 'acceptable' level. Every industry has a pollution level, but the question is,how much should we tolerate?
I can tell you fortunes are made in drilling; an economy can hum and expand when people have a solid source of income or supplemental income. There have been multi-million dollar public projects constructed in my area (solely on gas money) that benefit those who live here and anyone who visits. There are many, many benefits that come with drilling.

But I sense that New York thinks of itself as different, and will not use drilling experiences from other states as a template. As a New Yorker (originally)I understand the attitude.

I have seen drilling, and the rigs are widely spaced, and for the most part, they are ignored and become part of the usual landscape.

It would be a personal tradgedy to me if Sullivan County were defaced or contaminated in any way.I've been there every year since I was 3 weeks old, and my family has a long history in the area. It needs to be protected.

I believe we can make that protection mandatory, and use the drilling and the salivating energy companies to our advantage. It's a situation that will never happen again, so Sully needs to arrange it for her own benefit, and use it to the best advantage.

The captain of the football team has asked us to the dance, but we sure don't want him to think he can get away with anything.

[Marcellus Wallace]

I don't see how any sort of protections can truly guarantee against the eventual contamination of groundwater, given the unpredictable nature of drilling deep and horizontally under the earth. Factor in the meandering interconnectedness of aquifers and some basic laws of chemistry and physics and you are asking for contamination eventually.

The "captain of the football team" whose fancy you court is a dual post held by Aubrey McClendon (Chesapeake Energy) and T Boone Pickens (whose next bet after nat gas is....wait for it.....WATER). Far from being a red-blooded jock, this two-headed captain will sully much more than your nethers. This captain takes financing from Singapore and China, and employs Okies and Texans, and answers only to shareholders.

[keith]

I'm curious about the location of Mary Ellen's "my area." Also "it's a situation that will never happen again." So if gas drilling was blocked this time, more Sullivan County economic decline ensues and years later, out of desperation, the county says to the gas companies "okay, we changed our mind" that the gas companies are going to reply with "tough, you had your chance." Bringing gambling to Sullivan County has been an issue since the early 70's and the indians have never taken that "off the table" despite sustained resistance to bringing casinos into the area. I agree protection is needed, what's happening in the Gulf being the obvious example, that was probably preventable (if they hadn't foregone the installation of a second pipe shearing module in the BOP). And yes, some areas of the county will likely be insulated from drilling, the closer you get to NYC's watershed the tougher the fight will be for the gas companies. I'm very happy my Dad's house is about a mile (as the crow flies) from one of the NYC reservoirs. And the reservoir brings in a healthy stream of tax revenue to keep the town afloat so gas drilling money isn't needed.

[Mary Ellen]

I live in a suburb of Dallas, TX., grew up in Westchester, own a family place in Sullivan county.

[Susie]

David,

I personally appreciate you going the extra mile -- in this case, literally -- to investigate difficult topics that may have an impact on homeowners. Very brave and upstanding of you.

Best,
Susie

[rod]

A few thoughts I've been thinking -
I wonder if the local towns and townspeople understand that the vast majority of real estate will suffer great value declines (taxable value) if the gas companies are irresponsible, or unregulated, or don't live up to the high and laudable practices the local pro-drilling crowd cite.

If gas is so profitable and inevitable, I wonder why there is so much 'drillable' land for sale at reasonable prices (prices that just the drilling signing bonus would cover)? Doesn't seem logical.

I wonder how many times Gasland guy has watched "Roger and Me" and "Fastfood Nation?

[keith]

Thanks, Mary Ellen, now I remember reading one of your posts in the past mentioned your living near Dallas. I can understand you're living in a state with a much more receptive political climate for oil and gas drilling.

[keith]

www.gaslandthemovie.com

I clicked on the video in Northern Virginia and the one to it's left in Northern TN. Since they need to drill very deep, expensive wells to get to the gas in Marcellus shale, they need to maximize the yield to increase well efficiency. This requires horizontal fracking. They didn't start drilling in the Marcellus shale until 2007, I doubt it was a coincidence that Cheney and his pals got the legislation passed just a couple years before that explicitly exempted gas and oil drilling from the EPA safe drinking water and clean air acts thus allowing the horizontal fracking with toxic chemicals in the Marcellus shale.

I also get a little suspicious when I see a push to get people to sign off on something right away rather than wait, reminds me of shopping for a new car, the salesman's job is to get me to buy a car before I walk out of the store so I don't have a chance to think about the purchase or visit other car dealers. Remember a few years back when it looked like casinos might actually be coming to Sullivan County? Rather than do the intelligent thing and build one casino, then weigh the positive and negative impacts before deciding to build additional casinos, there was a push to build 3 casinos all at the same time. If they created a mess or the casinos folded, the people who pushed to get the 3 casinos built would have already left town long before with suitcases full of cash. Horizontal fracking technology is only about 3 years old, so there hasn't been sufficient time to observe the long term environmental impact. When someone tries too hard to get me to do something immediately rather than wait for more data to come in, I can't help but wonder if they're trying to "take the money and run." So I agree that "this situation will never happen again" may actually be a true statement if it turns out the Gasland movie got a lot right (no surprise there are people out there busy trying to debunk the movie) and horizontal fracking is subsequently stopped (by the government or communities deciding the environmental impact is not worth the lease and royalty money).

Also, on the gasland movie link, click on the video link that's on the NYC Watershed and Delaware River Basin part of the map, I found that interesting as well. "Combined the NYC Watershed and the Delaware River Basin supply drinking water for 15.6 million people...............the largest unfiltered water supply in the world."

[Mr. Fiddle]

I agree with Susie.

David, at times, does go the extra mile.

However with only 76 pending deals (accepted offer or in contract) in the pipeline, I cannot recall a weaker situation going forward in many many years.

Usually at this time of the year - before the Fourth of July - there are over 100 pending deals to close within the next 30 to 90 days which puts us into late September.

That's what people should be looking at.

How many pending deals are there? And where are they?

Look at Western Sullivan County townships - not good.

Possibly David will shed some light on this.

Mr. Fiddle

[Nick]

This is a great topic and it's good that someone is bringing and even keeled perspective to all this.

I think the real issue isn't just "drilling" in the abstract. It's the way drilling is implemented in this country specifically. The problem is that the oil and gas industry have had so much power that they have carved out the rights to do all sorts of things that nobody else would be able to get away with. The phrase "the law doesn't apply to them" is literal, they have specific exemptions from obvious and needed requirements that freakin' *everyone* else has to abide by. If there were some way to ensure that they had to factor in all the true costs of what they were doing (prospective damage to open space, roads, water table, etc) and had strict oversight (what the hell are those chemicals they're pumping into the ground anyways) then communities could do their best to make informed decisions.

I think the reason people are so freaked out about giving them any leeway at all is that there's a well founded fear that once ensconced they will be impossible to regulate. The town of Bethel has recently turned down at least a couple pretty modest development permit applications. We're talking things like restaurants, lodging just a little bit bigger than a B&B, etc. And not in sensitive areas even. If the people in a community could retain the right to manage where drilling can go the same way they manage where a gas station or retail store can go it probably wouldn't be much of an issue. But as we know, big oil and gas don't like dealing with locals, so everyone's well aware that once they get state level approval it's kind of out of their hands. That's a problem.

[David Knudsen]

Mr. Fiddle, I don't think the issue is western Sullivan or eastern Sullivan. The market is very soft everywhere period all over the county. Over at Yankee and Wolf Lakes, which are in areas where gas drilling isn't much of an issue at all, nothing's selling. And when I chat with colleagues further east, in the second home areas of eastern Delaware County, northern Ulster and up to Greene, they're also commenting on how slow it is. While gas drilling may be an issue among some buyers here in Sullivan, the bigger overriding issue is the economy and lack of consumer confidence. There just isn't a feeling that we're shaking this recession.

[David Knudsen]

Nick, good comments. But I'm not completely sure it's out of local hands. I attended the county planning department's gas drilling seminar last evening at Monticello High School. It's a series of 3 panels over the summer, and this one was on landowner and property issues. One of the speakers was an attorney from Albany who spoke at length about the state law about oil and gas drilling that is usually interpreted as limiting local oversight to road use. The law, in the way it was adopted, conflicts with New York's home rule statutes, and so the limits on home rule regarding land use and gas drilling may not, in fact, be legal. It's a court case waiting to happen.

[keith]

One other thing I happened to think of. I remember reading a few months back one of the defenses given by a drilling company spokesman was his citing the squeaky clean safety record of drilling in NY, that there were no reported drinking water contamination problems due to drilling in NY. Well, DUH, they haven't started doing any horizontal fracking in NY. Sneaky.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10164/1065304-455.stm

[Mary Ellen]

http://tiny.cc/meuf3

This article says the gas and oil industry are not exempt from the clean air and water acts.

What the heck-I don't think there's a way to find the real truth. Everything I find contradicts the last report I read.

But wouldn't it be nice( cue Beach Boys song...)not to depend on foreign oil-to extricate ourselves from the Middle East. Aren't we all tired of that mess?

[mnc]

Good Lord. Some of you really don't understand. The answer can be found in the Gulf oil spill. It is in the process of destroying a way of life for at least two if not three future generations. It not just turtles and beaches.
With regards to your county. If something goes wrong----be it a water table contamination or an unforeseen event, where do some of you plan to "migrate" to? You're lobsters in a pot waiting for the lid to be placed on top.

[keith]

Yes, Mary Ellen, there is a lot of data to sift through out there, maybe the gas companies need to make their own gas drilling movie to refute Gasland. This topic fascinates me, so I did go through much of the link you posted. A couple things I noticed. First, they mention fracking has been used in the Barnett shale since the 90's with very few problems. This is vertical fracking which seems to have much less drinking water contamination hazards than horizontal fracking, in part because the fracking fluid used in those vertical wells is different. Also Haliburton has never denied that their new fracking fluid contains benzene as well as the other 4 very toxic chemicals cited in Gasland and other sources. I'm sure if these chemicals were not used in their new formula, Haliburton would've made a public statement of denial. Yet, the links in the article link you posted that had the fracking fluid information did not include any mention of benzene, or the other 4 highly toxic chemicals cited in Gasland, so some of the fracking fluid recipes are not represented in the links. The stuff they're using to frack the Marcellus shale is new which seems to imply why explicit language was added in 2005 to exclude gas drilling from the Safe Drinking Water act. They didn't start drilling in the Marcellus shale in earnest until after that language was added. The well that went in in 2004 was just a test well, after the drilling with the test well was successful in extracting gas from the Marcellus shale, the next year gas drilling was explicitly excluded from the Safe Drinking Water act, also note that in that same year, 2005, put into law was that drilling companies were not required to disclose the chemical composition of their fracking mixtures, the following year the Marcellus shale production wells started to go in. Hard for me to believe this sequence of events is just a coincidence.

[Mary Ellen]

I did not write the above post starting with "Here in Texas..."

Whoever is using my name and pretending to be me, you're doing a bad job.

Jerk. Humor should be left to the intelligent, so please don't attempt it again.
-----
DK Comment: I removed the post.

[Chris G]

Mary Ellen, what will it be? gas rigs or short-term renters?
which little guy on your shoulders will win his out??????

[Mary Ellen]

I don't know what that means. I wouldn't mind a little guy on my shoulders, provided he was cute and had a little six pack.

I just got back from good ole Sullivan county and still have my country glow on, sunburned hands and all. On reading this blog again, I had to make the distinction between 'short term renters' in NY city (which is a bad thing-they are now trying to eliminate them, as they can turn a regular apartment building into a hotel)and leasing a vacation rental during the summer.

Not only does it benefit the owner (me) with helping with the high taxes of the area, but leasing your place brings customers to the local markets, restaurants, hardware stores, Bethel Woods, you name it.

I had the owner of a coffee shop actually thank me for all the business my 'short term renters' bring to her.

In a stagnant economy, it's a good way to keep folks flowing through the area, buying up whatever is available.

Many people tell me they want to buy a house in Sullivan after spending time at my place. (It would be interesting to note how many actually do it)

Anyway, my point (and I do have one) is that renters bring money to Sullivan, and every little bit helps local businesses survive. I also receive rapturous letters from peeps who have rented for 2 weeks, telling me about the fish they caught (just last week one woman said her husband actually cried with excitement while catching a 36-inch Northern Pike out of the lake)the woodchucks their kids saw, the beavers they encoutered swimming in the creek...)These are people who normally live in elevator buildings! It's a win-win-win situation; the vacationers, the local businesses and the owner.

Making 'short term renter' sound like a dirty word may be a city thing, but not so with a vacation place.

[Jordan 13]

For years I thought what was good for our country was good for General Motors, and vice versa. (Charles E. Wilison American president of GM)

[Mary E]

I thought this might be of interest-it's the first time I've seen an article on actually cleaning up the fracking fluid. These people should make a fortune.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/10/23/2570000/wastewater-from-natural-gas-drilling.html