Sullivan County Real Estate

Beware Craigslist Vacation Rental Scam

A local Realtor yesterday told me about a scam being run on Craigslist involving a home she has listed for sale on Swinging Bridge. The scammers put a post on Craigslist indicating the house is available as a short term vacation rental at a very attractive price. Included is a photo of the home lifted from the "For Sale" listing somewhere on the internet, along with the property address. They've even gotten the owner's name from property records, and added "Pastor" to it ... so the rental is being offered by "Pastor Owner Name." The story goes something like, "I'm a missionary in Africa, and have extended my time here. So I'm unable to use this beautiful lakefront home this summer and have decided to offer it as a rental."

There's a link to a rental application that potential renters are asked to download and fax back. I'm not sure how the scam plays out. Whether the point is to just get the rental application with personal information like a social security number (ostensibly to run a credit check) for the purpose of identity theft. Or whether the scammers "approve" the application, book the rental and then ask for payment to be wired.

But regardless of how it plays out, it's a scam, and potential renters should be very wary of online rental postings that don't quite pass the sniff test. Think of it as another (and quite clever) twist on the Nigerian scams.

How Much Can You Cover in a Day?

New second home buyers from the city, particularly if they're not that familiar with "upstate", often want to cover way too much ground on a single trip. It's understandable. People have busy schedules and it can be tough to carve out time to go house shopping. And if you're schlepping two hours up and two hours back, you want to get in as much as possible.

I frequently find myself in a tussle with buyers, who've picked out a dozen houses they want to see, from Livingston Manor to Glen Spey. They want to start in the morning and go for 7 or 8 hours. Commonly, they underestimate the distances involved and overestimate their stamina. From experience, I try to limit appointments to about four hours. That translates into a max of about 5 houses. I don't try to limit the appointments because I'm lazy. It's just that's what I've found to be the most that buyers can absorb in a single day trip. At five hours, and the sixth or seventh house, and everything starts mushing together. People also get tired and grumpy, too. Five hours of looking, added on to two hours of driving in each direction, makes for a VERY long day.

Occasionally people want to "do" Delaware or Greene county in the morning, and then swing through Sullivan to see some houses in the afternoon. I usually won't agree to schedule a Sullivan appointment with folks who've spent the morning in another area. It can be tough saying 'no', but I've learned over time that it just doesn't work. Occasionally I do agree, and it always ends up badly. The buyers end up getting to Sullivan much, much later than they expected, or they end up canceling the Sullivan end altogether — because their appointments further north took longer that expected, or they underestimated distances. If they do make it over, they're usually plum tuckered out and don't have much attention left for any more houses.

It can be so tempting to try to fill a day as full as possible. But there are just diminishing returns. Its like the old saw about data versus information — too much data can result in actually less information. Buyers coming up from the city should think about breaking down the areas they're considering into chewable chunks, and plan trips to include a few hours of house hunting and a few hours of something else enjoyable — a nice lunch, a hike, or a dip in the Delaware River.

The Next Hundred Million and the Future for Sullivan

A couple of weeks ago, a friend invited me to attend a program sponsored by the Forum for Urban Design in NYC. The title was America:2050, and it featured a dialogue between Joel Kotkin, author of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 and Chris Leinberger, author of The Option of Urbanism: Investing in the New American Dream. Joel's book has been more controversial because of his unapologetic promotion of a suburban future, while Chris is a staunch new urbanist, seeing salvation in higher density, walkable urban design and is an advocate of public policies to make that happen.

This is a topic that can be debated ad infinitum, and the evening at the Forum for Urban Design was lively to say the least. I've just finished reading Joel's book, and there's a premise there that has very interesting implications for Sullivan County.

At the core of Joel's book is the demographic trend that the population of the U.S. will grow from roughly 300 million today to 400 million by 2050, largely through immigration combined with the traditionally higher birth rates among first and second generation immigrant families. He posits that this population growth, fueled largely by immigration, will be an engine for significant economic growth, and result in a population that is aging far more slowly than European or Asian nations. It's a very interesting thesis, well worth the read, and a surprisingly optimistic one.

So how does this all relate to Sullivan County? Joel predicts that most of this growth will be absorbed by the Heartland (it seems he has a love affair with North Dakota) as well as the ring suburbs of sunbelt powerhouses like Houston. But 20%, or 20 million, of the growth, will likely fall into the northeast corridor, with of course, the New York metro area getting the lion's share of that.

The economic benefit for Sullivan won't be as an exurb of NYC. We're just too far away. That growth will flow to closer in, more traditional suburbs. But we may see a resurgence of our position as a convenient and affordable second home getaway locale for those 1st and 2nd generation immigrant populations. That's the traditional market position that Sullivan County has held for over 100 years, up until the upmarket country house trend of the last ten. Maybe instead of trying so hard to be the "new Catskills", trying to compete with Saratoga and the Hamptons, we should go back and reinvent ourselves as the "old Catskills", where first and second generational immigrants could enjoy a welcoming and affordable escape from the dense urban environment.

For the past decade, we've focused on the arugula and goat cheese set as the core of the Sullivan Renaissance. But maybe it's time to broaden our horizons.

I have to tread very carefully on this topic because of the fair housing laws. I can't, for example, comment that I may have seen an increase in buyer interest from this or that national origin. But it could be a very useful research topic for the county planning department. How many second home buyers (or renters) in Sullivan County are native born, or first or second generational immigrants? What is their national origin? Are there trends that we can capitalize on as a county? Should there, for example, be a summer weekend soccer league? It could be a huge draw

Riverfest Sunday July 25th

Riverfest in Narrowsburg is one of the most popular summer festivals in Sullivan County. It kicks off at 9:45AM with "River Dogs on Parade", followed by entertainment, vendors and street musicians.  A high point of the day is the annual Poster Auction. This year, 60 artists have donated posters to the auction, which runs from 12:30 until 2. (Artists work from a uniform sketched poster, and then embellish and extend. Many of the resulting works are reeally fabulous.)

If you're coming to west county for the day, consider stopping first at the great farmers market in Callicoon (starting at 11AM) and then heading down to Narrowsburg for Riverfest.

My New Droid X

I confess. I'm a tech geek. I love gizmos and gadgets. So, when it comes to cell phones, I've been very unhappy :( that I live in Verizonland, the province — until now — of pretty yucky smart phones. For the past year, continuing to struggle with my clunky Windows Mobile phone, I've clung to every rumor that maybe, just maybe, the iPhone will be coming to Verizon soon.

I'm sure someday it will, but I got tired of waiting. So last week I queued up at a Verizon store in Scranton to pick up the much-hyped Droid X on its launch day. I felt like a teenager lining up for Lady Gaga tickets.

I've been using the Droid X for a week now, and I couldn't be happier.It's speedy, customizable and has this HUGE 4.3" screen. That screen makes the onscreen keyboards incredibly smooth to use. (I've never been a lover of onscreen keyboards). There's also very accurate speech-to-text dictation, and Motorola wisely added a Bluetooth voice dialing app. (Voice dialing isn't slated to be part of the Android platform until the release of the next version of Android, coming later this summer.)

The purpose of this post isn't to get into an iPhone versus Android shoot out. Probably if the iPhone had been available on Verizon, I would have gone that route. But now that I've spent time with the Droid X, I'm not sure I'd flip over. This is one really sweet phone, and well worth considering if, like me, you're a captive of Verizon.

Property Searches Steadily Climb

Given how slow the market's been, in terms of sales over the past few months, I've been watching in somewhat shocked amazement at the steady rise in property searches on the Sullivan MLS search on my website. Yesterday, there were over 600 searches and clickthroughs to almost 6,000 individual listing views. That's the highest ever, with the exception of a day when this website gets mention in the NYTimes. Yesterday wasn't an aberration; the search count has been steadily climbing for the past month. I was chalking it up to slightly better Google position on some key terms — this site enjoyed the #1 Google search position on some key terms for about a week. But I dropped back down on those search phrases to #2 a few days ago. The number of searches didn't take a hit and kept rising.

I don't know what to read into this. One explanation is that the property search may have more return visitors, with a growing group of shoppers checking in from time to time. But the daily new account sign ups is also up, indicating that there are also more new shoppers stopping by. But whether these indications of interest will result in more sales remains to be seen.

The Tradeoffs of Lower End Lakefront

Surging temperatures = surging interest in lakefront. It's an equation that's holding true, recession or no recession. Over the past month, at least half of the inquiries I'm getting are about lakefront property. The lion's share of those inquiries are about properties at the low end of the lakefront price spectrum, under $200,000 or $250,000. Sure, we have lakefront properties on the market in that range, but most have some downside that limits their appeal (and thus the lower price.) Most commonly, the lowest priced lakefront houses don't have great lakefront. They might be on small, shallow or murky lakes --- possibly great for fishing, but not as appealing for swimming. The house may be on a busier road side of a lake, and pick up more road noise. It might be seasonal, only usable during the warm weather months and not during the winter. In a few cases, there are "lakefront" houses that seem well priced and look great online, but don't actually have legal rights to use the lakes they front on.

Some of these houses can be great options if you just want to be on water at a lower price point, and are willing to accept some tradeoffs. However, most of the folks I show these properties to really want something a little more "perfect" — a larger lake, a quieter setting, a clearer, more pristine swimming lake, a bigger house. Those are all possible, but at a higher price point. I'm finding that a lot of the $200,000 to $250,000 range lakefront shoppers I'm talking with are more likely to find what they'd like in the $300,000 to $350,000 range. In that range, houses are still modest, but generally have lake frontage that is much better.

In the $199,000 to $299,000 range, there are 11 lakefront houses on the market that are interesting. I've pulled them together in this link. There's a drawback or two to some of these, like the $199,000 cottage on Yankee Lake that's a seasonal, only usable during the non-freeze months, or the $239,000 house on Bodine Lake, which is quite good for fishing or canoeing, but not one of the top swimming lakes here. Push up into the low $300's, and there are 4 modest houses on the market (in this link) with some really nice lake frontage. MLS 28966 on Yankee Lake (our largest non-motorboat lake) has a killer lake setting with a very dramatic, straight on lake view. The house is in good condition, in contrast to many lower priced lakefront houses that can be pretty rough. The one drawback on this one is very small bedrooms, in the tradition of many older lake cottages. But you can't beat the view.

July Current Market Conditions Report Up with Latest Data

I just posted my July Current Market Conditions Report, with sales data through June. Sales up a bit from last month, prices down a bit ... pretty much the similar lateral market we've seen since the beginning of the year. Big change is the jump in inventory, which may lead to more seller pressure over the next few months, and bring more homes into the price ranges that buyers are looking to pay — and that could lead to more sales.

Inventory Passes 1,300

I've been watching the "Single Family Homes for Sale" numbers in the Sullivan MLS, as it's edged closer and closer to 1,300. Over the past few days, it's 1,297, then 1,294, then up to 1,299. But didn't push above 1,300. Today it did. Right now, there are 1,304 single family homes listed for sale in the Sullivan Multiple Listing System.

You can discount this as one of those arbitrary "mileatones" like the Dow 10,000 or the S&P 1,040. But what makes this significant is that it's the highest inventory on market in the Sullivan MLS since I've began tracking this metric in Jan. 2003. The previous inventory high was 1,292 single family homes listed for sale in the Sullivan MLS in August 2007.

Fundraiser for David Sager Today

Sullivan County Legislator David Sager is running for the state senate against long-time incumbent John Bonacic (R). David, who changed his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat to challenge the incumbent, is a strong opponent of gas drilling. "Keep Cochecton Green" is hosting a fundraiser for David today, July 3rd, from 5 to 7PM at 468 New Turnpike Road in Cochecton from 5PM to 7PM. The suggested donation is $20. There will also be two wine raffles at the event. Google Map of the location.