The Next Hundred Million and the Future for Sullivan

A couple of weeks ago, a friend invited me to attend a program sponsored by the Forum for Urban Design in NYC. The title was America:2050, and it featured a dialogue between Joel Kotkin, author of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 and Chris Leinberger, author of The Option of Urbanism: Investing in the New American Dream. Joel's book has been more controversial because of his unapologetic promotion of a suburban future, while Chris is a staunch new urbanist, seeing salvation in higher density, walkable urban design and is an advocate of public policies to make that happen.

This is a topic that can be debated ad infinitum, and the evening at the Forum for Urban Design was lively to say the least. I've just finished reading Joel's book, and there's a premise there that has very interesting implications for Sullivan County.

At the core of Joel's book is the demographic trend that the population of the U.S. will grow from roughly 300 million today to 400 million by 2050, largely through immigration combined with the traditionally higher birth rates among first and second generation immigrant families. He posits that this population growth, fueled largely by immigration, will be an engine for significant economic growth, and result in a population that is aging far more slowly than European or Asian nations. It's a very interesting thesis, well worth the read, and a surprisingly optimistic one.

So how does this all relate to Sullivan County? Joel predicts that most of this growth will be absorbed by the Heartland (it seems he has a love affair with North Dakota) as well as the ring suburbs of sunbelt powerhouses like Houston. But 20%, or 20 million, of the growth, will likely fall into the northeast corridor, with of course, the New York metro area getting the lion's share of that.

The economic benefit for Sullivan won't be as an exurb of NYC. We're just too far away. That growth will flow to closer in, more traditional suburbs. But we may see a resurgence of our position as a convenient and affordable second home getaway locale for those 1st and 2nd generation immigrant populations. That's the traditional market position that Sullivan County has held for over 100 years, up until the upmarket country house trend of the last ten. Maybe instead of trying so hard to be the "new Catskills", trying to compete with Saratoga and the Hamptons, we should go back and reinvent ourselves as the "old Catskills", where first and second generational immigrants could enjoy a welcoming and affordable escape from the dense urban environment.

For the past decade, we've focused on the arugula and goat cheese set as the core of the Sullivan Renaissance. But maybe it's time to broaden our horizons.

I have to tread very carefully on this topic because of the fair housing laws. I can't, for example, comment that I may have seen an increase in buyer interest from this or that national origin. But it could be a very useful research topic for the county planning department. How many second home buyers (or renters) in Sullivan County are native born, or first or second generational immigrants? What is their national origin? Are there trends that we can capitalize on as a county? Should there, for example, be a summer weekend soccer league? It could be a huge draw

Comments

[Bix]

Dave, the "old Catskills" is alive and well, and has been for a while. Just go to the Russian bungalow colonies at Kauneonga Lake, at and near the old Block's hotel, and you can see what I mean. Then there are all the Orthodox Jewish bungalow colonies everywhere, which are direct successors to the more secular hotels/bungalows of the Borscht Belt.

Right next door to me is a hunting property owned by some minority people from Brooklyn.