Sullivan County Not Worth Drilling?

Penn State geosciences professor Terry Engelder, the scientist first responsible for mapping the Marcellus Shale, made news last month when he commented that the Marcellus underneath Sullivan County isn't productive enough to make drilling here economically feasible. (See River Reporter article)That was reinforced by two industry insiders, Mike Uretsky and Tom Shepstone, speaking at a Tea Party Patriots meeting in Liberty that was covered in a Times Herald Record article this morning.

This is a game changer, but not the end of the game. No gas company or industry group has issued a statement saying Sullivan is off the table because the gas isn't here. The sceptre of drilling will hang over us until there are more concrete indications that gas companies have no intention of drilling here.

Right now, there's no movement on the part of the gas companies to my knowledge to sign up new leases in Sullivan County. But at this point, that's likely due more to the inability to drill here stemming from the effective moratoriums in place from both the NY DEC and the Delaware River Basin Commission, while they work out a permit process. The proof in the pudding will come if the NY DEC gives the green light to horizontal frack drillling in NY state, and the DRBC has an approval process for drilling in the Delaware River basin. Then, will we see any applications for drilling permits here?

All eyes will be closely watching Wayne County, PA. Pennsylvania already permits drilling, and the hold up in Wayne has been the DRBC. If the DRBC ends up permitting drilling, it will be interesting to see if the companies with leases over in Wayne (and there are thousands of acres leased there) apply for permits to exercise those leases. Four test wells have been drilled in Wayne County, but the results have not been made public by the two companies that drilled the wells, Newfield and Hess.

And there's an interesting map linked in another River Reporter article, A Line in the Drilling Debate, sourced from naturalgasnow.info that supposedly shows the areas within the Delaware River basin that could be productive for drilling. This seems to parallel much of what Engelder is saying.

All of this "it ain't here" talk may lead many to let down their guard and think the fight is over here. We need to continue to be diligent, to push for action that ensures that the Delaware River basin is entirely and officially off the table, and that the decision to drill or not drill here isn't just an economic one left to the gas companies. And given all that we've learned over the past couple of years, we need to push for strong regulation and oversight in any area.

Comments

[Mary E]

Of course, when you read the comments to the meeting in Liberty, the anti-drilling peeps insist it's a ploy to throw them off the gas-drilling scent. Does anyone believe anyone up there? Is every study considered a conspiracy?

Gas companies still insist there's no known record of any water contamination anywhere, anytime. Locals claim they're lying. If you defend gas as a boost to the limping economy in Sullivan county, you must be "working for the industry..." WTH?

I had a thought the other day-perhaps NY is so skittish about big business after what happened early in the 1900s-big chemical companies nonchanlantly dumping their waste into the Hudson. Could it be woven into the state conciousness that large companies are not to be trusted?

I have heard for some time that the eastern part of the county is "cooked", that is, the gas has been heated to a worthless temperature.

I guess the "believable" truth will come about when permits are finally allowed this summer and no one comes knocking. Or perhaps, crashes down the door.

[rod]

David, I think the biggest indication that what you are saying is true, or at least has arguable merit, is the fact that there is zero lease activity for the past few years, and nobody is buying up all the land for sale around the county. Even with the regulatory uncertainty surrounding gas drilling, you would think someone would be tying this land up even if for solely speculative reasons.

I mean, you could buy everything for sale for $20m - that's not a lot of money to hedge the upside of regulatory approval.

Sullivan County land will be worth a gold mine if gas drilling doesn't come - it will be a preserved oasis amidst the frenzy - an old-timer from Walton pointed that out to me at the Frack event the other month. No more arguments of 'lower taxes in PA', for sure.

We will certainly shortly see.

[Mother Jones]

Friend,

If it's true that the natural gas / shale resource / Marcellus Shale play is not to be found in great quantities east of the Moosic Mountain range (near the anthracite-coal beds near Carbondale/Scranton, PA) towards the Upper Delaware River and into Sullivan Conty- that would be the biggest boon to this real estate market.

And, it would be Mother Nature (not the Greenies or Tree Huggers) that would set Noel and his visions of L'il Texas on his can.

Let's hope so...and maybe the painfully silent realtors from SCBR will come up with a nifty campaign (FRACK FREE CATSKILLS) to revive the second home market to cityfolk and others who relish the beauty of Sullivan County for what it has been over the years and continues to be.

~Mother Jones.

[keith]

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=drill-for-natural-gas-pollute-water

[Eric]

The residents of Sullivan County should be the ones who hold the fate of local gas drilling- and nobody else. If the benefits to the impoverished economy outweigh the risks- great. If not, so be it. As a second homeowner in the county I believe my input should be marginal.

But if it's a no-go on drill, the county sure as heck better not come to me with begging for a property tax increase ANYTIME SOON. Period.

[crm]

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/09/news/economy/natural_gas_fracking_duke/index.htm?hpt=T2

[David]

Eric, as a second homeowner in Sullivan County (it will be my "first" home someday), not only do I vote there, I believe my input should be substantial.

[keith]

I wonder if the government will eventually exercise "eminent domain" to accommodate gas drilling in rural areas.

[d]

Eric,

It does not make sense that the 77,000 people of Sullivan County should make a decision that could affect the drinking water of 10,000,000 in NYC without input from others.

As a second home owner who drinks the water in Sullivan County and NYC and pays taxes in both, my input should be as good as anyone else's.

[Bix]

Anyone who lives in New York State has a vested interested in this, unless they don't drink water.

[keith]

So "eminent domain" would not be valid rational for drilling in the NYC watershed (despite that it's still a rural area). Ironically, it was "eminent domain" that created most of the NYC watershed. Some of my farming ancestors could be considered "martyrs" in a sense, they sacrificed their farms (now underneath reservoirs) so that one day there would be no gas drilling in much of the Catskills. And, where I grew up (the Grahamsville and Neversink areas) would've seen significant economic decline if not for the Neversink and Rondout Reservoirs. Lets face it, like the hotels, most of the farms would have disappeared anyway, it wasn't/isn't a good area for farming. But it has great drinking water.