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June 12, 2011

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My wife and I have been second vacation home residents of a home in Ferndale for the past 21 years. We've had our home (as so many others) up for sale for the past five years (with selling price dropping eacfh year). What do you think would be the effect of the real estate market and the economy in Sullivan county should we be lucky enough to see a racino or multiple casinos constructed and operational?

Martin, I don't think the impact is clear. If casinos do come, the greatest impact will likely be in workforce housing, in the Monticello and Rock Hill areas, from more modest housing for line workers to more upmarket housing for managers. This could be really good news for South Fallsburg and Monticello, both of which have had a tough time over the past few years. But the wider impact is tougher to predict. Younger, hipper buyers tend to gravitate to the more rural parts of the county in the western and northern townships — and that's been the bread and butter of the second home market for the past few years. It will be interesting to see if a casino will attract a different demographic, drawn to more 'action' — casinos, restaurants, golf courses, spas and maybe a water park. If it does bring a new demographic, that could be great for the eastern part of the county that took a back seat to the 'back to the land, organic gardening, cute farmhouse' that's been a boon to the more rural townships over the past decade. I'm a believer that Sullivan County is plenty big to encompass both, and they never have to rub elbows except on the lawn at Bethel Woods.

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