Sullivan County Real Estate

Kudos to NYSEG

NYSEG crews have been working steadily since Sunday night, and as of 7AM this morning have gotten the number of customers without power down to 7,025 from a high of 13,000. When I went to bed last night, the number was just over 10,000, so they're kicking butt to get this fixed. I'm still out, but in looking at the roads dropping off the outage list, they're getting closer. Go Nyseg, go!

Port Jervis Line Likely Down for Months

Bad news for commuters and second homers who use Metro North's Port Jervis line train for trips to and from the city. The railroad is reporting extensive damage to the Port Jervis line, and estimates it will take months to repair. Arrangements have been made to provide bus service between Harriman and the Ramsey/Route 17 NJ Transit station, but so far no word on arrangements for stations further west than Harriman. Read the Times Herald Record article and the Metro North notice. If you have guests coming up for Labor Day weekend who were planning to use the Port Jervis train, the best alternative is using the Shortline bus to Monticello.

Irene and Sullivan County

Hurricane Irene was supposed to uleash her wrath on New York City and Long Island. So it came as a big surprise that so much of the damage occurred upstate. The reason wasn't that the path of Irene shifted, but rather that eye of the storm loosened, spinning out the bands of winds in wider and wider arcs, much like a centrifuge or lasso. Those gigantic bands spun and wide upstate, through Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware, Schoharie, Putnam and Columbia counties. Late Sunday morning, friends in NYC were calling to say it was clearing with even patches of sun, and they were heading out for brunch, the outer bands of Irene were just heading to us. The wind and rain picked up big time in Sullivan and pummeled us through Sunday afternoon.

Luckily, in Sullivan we were spared major flooding. Of our usual trouble spots — Jeffersonville, Hortonville, Callicoon, Livingston Manor and Roscoe — only Livingston Manor saw much flooding from reports I've gotten from friends. However, I have heard that the far northeast part of Sullivan and into Ulster, around Sundown and Claryville, did get hit. Unfortunately, areas further north did not fare so well. Margetville, in Delaware County, had major flooding downtown. (Click for a Youtube video of Margartville flooding.)

The big issue has been downed trees — they're everywhere — and power outages. About 30% of NYSEG's customers in Sullivan County were without power. As of Monday evening, approximately 11,000 of NYSEG's 44,000 Sullivan customers are still without power, and NYSEG issued a statement today that it could take until sometime next week for everyone to be back up. (Most Central Hudson customers in Sullivan, which is the area around Grahamsville, are also without power.)

The northwest part of Sullivan — the towns Fremont, Callicoon, Rockland and Delaware — were the most affected for power outages, but power is out for a significant percentage of customers in other towns as well.

If you live here, you know your power's out. But if you have a home here, but aren't here now, you can check to see if your road is out on NYSEG's excellent Power Outage Information site. Even if you're not coming back up until next weekend, you should check to see if your power is out, and then check the site regularly to see if it's been restored. The reason is the food in your refrigerator. If the food in your freezer has thawed, and the power comes back on, it will refreeze. But it may have spoiled in the interim, it may have spolied and needs to be thrown out. The same thing goes for the food in your refrigerator. ven with your refrigerator and freezer doors shut, a non-working fridge will only stay cold for so long.

Also, please be patient if you're trying to reach people here. People's phones or internet connections may be down. In the real estate business, brokers and agents may be difficult to reach. Because the outages are so widespread, people you're trying to reach may have to travel quite a ways to check their email, and may only do so once or twice a day. In real estate offices without power, there may be no answer or voicemail. So again, please be patient. And over the next couple of days, it may be best to use multiple modalities to get a message through if you can.

That First Impression

My appointments over the past week have been very interesting for me, because in the course of my trips out with buyers I showed 8 or 9 houses I'd never seen before. That's very unusual for me, because if I haven't shown a house before I've usually 'previewed' it. But in the last week, I've been out with buyers looking for very different types of houses and we made a lot of last minute switches, so ended up at houses I hadn't seen. None were on the lower end of the price spectrum; all had asking prices above $300,000.

So I had the opportunity to share 'first impressions' with my clients at a number of properties. And in many cases, those first impressions were not so good. We encountered overgrown lawns and fields around houses, siding and trim in dire need of repainting or staining, weeds sprouting between patio stones and ponds layered with scum. In contrast, with most of them, the interiors were quite nice. But the die was cast with the first impression on the drive up to the house. Notably, none of them made a buyer's short list of properties to further consider.

I understand that times are tough, money's tight and some sellers may be upside down on their houses and looking at a loss. They don't want to put another dime into their house. But what they don't get is that they're in fierce competition for buyers, and most buyers form an impression of a house — and whether they're likely to buy it or not — before they ever get out of the car.

This is not the case with all houses, by an means. There are many houses that are an absolute delight to show, because the owners and the agents representing them get it. The grounds are tidy, at least around the house and leading to the front porch. There's a fresh coat of paint where it's needed. Ponds are inviting, swimming pools are operating. Shrubs and bushes are pruned. Sure, an inviting approach is no guarantee of an offer in this market. But an uninviting one slashes your chances of getting a buyer to fall in love with your house.

The Thrill of Small Town Democracy

I'm a Democrat (duh), and live (and am registered to vote) in Delaware Township. In our township, the Democratic Party uses the caucus system to nominate the Democratic slate for local township offices. For township elections (held every two years), the caucus happens sometimes in August. It's usually a sleepy affair. Most years, the Democratic Committee in Delaware Township pulls together a slate of nominees with no opposition. The word goes out to Democrats in the township to come to the caucus, and maybe a dozen of us show up to rubber stamp the slate. Over the years, I've attended a few of these.

This year was really different. The reason: gas drilling. The Democratic Committee (comprised of four people) had put together a slate, with Ed Sykes, a long time Callicoon businessman, as its choice for nominee for town supervisor. Ed is arguably pro-drilling, and has made statements in that vein in public forums. One of the key issues facing townships here over the next year or two is whether they'll pursue local zoning to limit or control drilling, and Ed has not come out in favor of local home rule zoning.

Needless to say, the anti-drilling forces here did not see a friend in Ed. For years, the Democratic Party in this township has been poorly organized. Last year, we reinvigorated a Democratic Club, which has regularly attracted 15 to 30 folks to monthly meetings. The big kahuna issue in those meetings has been gas drilling, or more specifically the position of the  Democratic Party and our candidates in this township on it. I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of Democrats attending those meetings want the party to take an aggressive stance to limit or control drilling in sharp counterpoint to the likely Republican position to encourage it.

The Democratic Club, though, does not select a preferred slate. The Executive Committee of the party in the township (comprised of four people) does. And they picked Ed. But his nomination had to be ratified by the caucus. The anti-drilling faction went into high gear. They encouraged Steve Lundgren, a committed anti-drilling foe, to run against Ed for the supervisor nomination. The anti-drilling forces are very well organized here, and got people to turn out.

Fast forward to last night. The Delaware Youth Center was packed. There was a line of local Democrats out the door waiting to sign in. We ended up with 112 local registered Democrats inside, plus a couple of dozen friends and observers. The atmopshere was almost electric, and most of us were amazed that so many people turned out, on both sides. The county Democratic Party chair even schlepped out to Callicoon to be a part of it (although he couldn't vote.)

There were two contested races, but the main event was the race between Ed and Steve, between the old guard with Kiwanis and business connections, and the new guard more aligned with Catskill Mountainkeeper and Catskill Citizens for Safe Energy. Both candidates were given a few minutes to talk After establishing his local bona fides, Steve came right out on the drilling issue. Ed really didn't address it at all, apart from generalizations about quality of life.

Then we lined up to write our choice down on a slip of paper and drop it in a ballot box. We had to do this three times actually, once for the supervisor race, and twice for the single contested town council race because the first ballot for that race ended in a tie.

The outcome: Steve Lundgren won, and so did Dick Ried, the anti-drilling candidate for the contested council seat.

The victory was thrilling. For me, it felt like witnessing the passing of the baton from the old guard to the new. It was also energizing, because it showed that by organizing we can shape events.

BUt now the real work starts. The November election will be tough, and Steve will be going head to head with Ed again. (Ed is likely the supervisor nominee on the Republic line. It looks like they're nominating him, even though he is a registered Democrat.) September and October are going to be very busy months.

 

The Fickle Fashion of Upstate Places

A couple of weeks ago, the New York Times had a big article, Williamsburg on the Hudson, (probably needs a subscription to view) casting the limelight on the latest upstate hotspot for city escapees. I thought, "Oh, no, all the trendsters are gravitating to Cold Spring and Beacon and Hudson."

I thought back over the dozen or so years I've lived here in Sullivan County and how that 'new, cool, hip and latest' limelight has shifted around the Catskills and Hudson Valley, almost like a carnival searchlight in the night sky. A decade ago Jeffersonville and Livingston Manor (here in Sullivan) were the new 'in' places for a second home upstate, fueled by the penchant for shabby chic farmhouse renovations and rural 'authenticity', and the proximity to the Delaware River and the Catskill Park. Callicoon and Narrowsburg also rode that wave. Villages further east, closer to the Hudson, like Woodstock and Saugerties, once seen as artsy and hip, were viewed by many younger folk as too established, too expensive and over touristy.

Then the limelight shifted north, into Delaware County, to the area around Margaretville and Bovina. In 2004, the redone retro-chic Roxbury Motel opened, cementing that area's reputation as the coolest, hippest place upstate.

But the upper Hudson Valley wasn't resting on it's laurels. The city of Hudson (in Columbia County) transformed itself with a slew of new galleries, antique stores, watering holes and restaurants — all reliable magnets for city trendsters. Along with Beacon to the south (with DIA Beacon), the upper Hudson was poised to take the crown from the Catskills. Draw a traingle from Beacon (in the south) to Millerton (just west of the Connecticut) to Hudson (in the north), and that would seem to be the new 'in' place.

There's an interesting tribal element to these shifts. The revitalization and subsequent "hipness" of upstate areas is largely driven by city folk in their early 30's, attracted by cheap property, and armed with more dreams than resources. Ten or fifteen years ago, those 30-somethings seemed to be largely coming out of Manhattan (including a lot of gay couples from Chelsea and the west side), HOboken and Jersey City, with a smattering from Brooklyn. It was an urban tribe of a certain time and place that 'discovered' a place to call their own upstate, Sullivan County. And in a half dozen years or so, they had spruced up houses, opened stores and restaurants, and spread word of mouth among their friends. Voila! We were ready for our close up, Mr. DeMille — and had our cover stories and articles crowning us as the new 'in' place. Something similar also happened a few years later in Margaretville and Bovina.

The current tribe of 30-somethings is also looking to stake out their place. Instead of hailing from Manhattan (which in the ensuing decade has become prohibitively expensive for people in their late 20's, soon to the 30's to put down roots), they're hailing from Williamsburg or Long Island City. And Millerton may be their Livingston Manor or Jeffersonville.

This isn't to say that now all 30-something second home buyers from the city will be heading east of the Hudson, just like not all 30-somethings in the city want to live in Williamsburg. We have a different appeal. Our real estate is cheaper, and if you want more privacy or room for a large garden, you can find something on a few acres here for about the same price as an in-village house on a town sized lot in upper Dutchess. We also have lakes, the Catskill Park and the Delaware River.

The spotlight for the Summer of 2011 does seem to be hovering somewhere right above the Taconic. It will be interesting to see where it shines its light in the next two or three years. (Will the Poconos finally shed its 'honeymoon hotel' rap, ala Blue Valentine, to become the next 'it' place? The new Ledges Hotel and the renovated Hawley Silk Mill, hosting a 60 artist show this summer, "Art on the Edge", sure seem to be pointing in that direction.) And don't count out the southwest part of Sullivan, from Narrowsburg to Barryville, as a contender for the crown.

 

Current Market Conditions Posted with July Data

My latest Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate is up, with sales data through July 2011. Prices and volume held relatively steady, and in these volatile, up and down times that's not such bad news. Check out the latest Market Conditions Report and then drop on back to the blog to share your thoughts on what's happening in the Sullivan County Real Estate market.

#1 Request - $300,000 Lakefronts

Hey, I get it. When summers are sweltering, city folks baked by the pavement dream of jumping into a cool mountain lake, or better yet, owning their own hideaway on the edge of a cool mountain lake. Calls and emails about lakefront houses have gone through the roof over the past month.

The vast majority of people calling about lakefront houses are looking for something under $300,000. The available inventory in that range is pretty slim. If you take Lake Muskoday out of the picture, which is west of Roscoe and further from the city than many folks want to travel, we're down to about a half dozen places on reasonably good lakefront in that price range. If someone has a preference for a motorboat or non-motorboat lake, the selection is 2 or 3 on each. More lakefront places show up in the MLS in that range, but they involve a compromise that isn't quite apparent from the listing, like being on a tiny lake (yes, we have one 'lake' that's only about 5 acres), or not really be lakefront the way most people think about it. (There are a couple of lakefront houses on the market where the house is set off the lake, and the 'lakefront' is a narrow deeded strip on the lake a short walk from the house.) There are also a couple of 'seasonals' that aren't winterized for year round use.

Good lakefronts under $300K have been moving. I know of 3 that have gone into deals in the last couple of weeks; one had a deal on it within a week of being listed.

Buyers I've been going out with to look at moderate priced lakefront have been surprised that I don't have a larger selection to show them. After all, we're in a buyers' market, so the market should be flooded with houses that sellers are looking to dump. But that just isn't the case with lakefront. For lakefront in this range, it's a matter of having your ducks in a row and being ready to pull the trigger when something comes on the market.

It's also a matter of having reasonable expectations. Sub-$300K lakefront places are small, typically around or under 1,000 sq. ft. with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Larger places aren't sub-$300K. You're also not going to find "On Golden Pond" privacy; parcels will generally be 70 to 110 feet wide with houses on the adjacent parcels. Most will also require some updating and work. There's an adorable little cape on Montgomery Lake (a small but sweet non-motorboat lake near Yulan) that has great bones but a fusty, Grandma-style interior. It's hard to get folks to see past the paneling and 70's acoustical tile ceilings. But someone with a creative bent could make it into a darling lake cottage.

I'm also finding that the $300,000 ceiling is pretty fixed for most buyers. There are a few great lakefront houses on the market with asking prices closer to $400K that would possibly sell in the $350K to $375K range that offer a lot more than what you'll get sub-$300K, and need less work. But it's tough to get folks to even look at this higher price point, even though they're more likely to be delighted than disappointed.

Barryville's A Happenin' — 2 New Stores Open

The locus of hip and chic has been sliding south in the county, with a new happening corridor anchored by Narrowsburg to the north and Barryville to the south. Sprucing up Barryville is the refurnished Barryville Town Square, a cluster of a few shops and an art gallery (and yes, a real estate office ... but remember, folks, I sell real estate, too) just southeast of the intersection of Route 55 and Route 97.

Joining the Brook House Gallery, which opened earlier this year, and that real estate office, are Region General Store and the Barryville Bottle Shop. Region General Store is the love child of Bryce Boyd, luxury retailer turned country merchant. The store features a tastefully curated selection of gift items, housewares and artisan gourmet foods. (He also carries that fabulous Flour Power bread.) Think "Beekman Boys Open a Store" and you got it. Nice stuff, worth a stop. Open Wed. through Sun.

Next door, Jeff Hock opened the Barryville Bottle Shop, featuring a selection of 80 carefully chosen wines. This is a very welcome addition to this part of the county. Before Barryvile Bottle opened, if you wanted a good bottle of wine you had to trek north to Narrowburg. Jeff also stocks spirits, so there's now a place in Barryville to pick up a bottle or two of vodka when your weekend houseguests who drink like fish conveniently forgot to bring some up.

The Rough Spot

Get a few Realtors together, and the talk inevitably turns to how difficult it is to hold deals together and get them to a closing. I like these 'hiccup' chats, because they hehlp us get a handle on the rough spots, and pick up suggestions on how to smooth them out.

The big 'rough spot' in deals that a lot of my colleagues are talking about is not what you think. It's largely not the appraisal and financing, which a lot of folks think is the problem area. It's the home inspection. I've had a couple of deals this year fall apart at this point in the process, and so have a lot of other Realtors I've talked with. And if a deal does hold together, more ill will between buyers and sellers results from the inspection than any other point in the process.

So why has this step, which used to be fairly routine, become so treacherous? The reasons rest on both the buyer and seller side. On the buyer side, they're very focussed on value, and zero in on the least expensive properties in any given category. So if there are, say, 4 lakefront houses between $250K and $350K, it's the lowest priced ones that grab their interest. But the lowest priced houses in any category often have more problems and issues than higher priced ones. In the push-pull between 'good deal' and 'good house', good deal usually wins out.

The problem arises when buyers substitute "and" for "or" in the good deal/good house equation. Buyers are negotiating hard and tough to land the deal at a rock bottom price. But in many cases, after the inspection, they're coming back to the seller with a list, sometimes a long list, of items to be repaired, or a price adjustment made.

Experienced Realtors here have a pretty good grasp of what will and won't float in post inspection negotiations over repair items. Unless a house is marketed in handyman condition, or clearly "as is", there is widespread agreement that there are five items that fall into the seller's ballpark to repair or mitigate — failure of a well water test, elevated radon levels, an observable septic failure, evidence of wood destroying inspects, and presence of an underground oil tank (although this last one can be the subject of fights that would make even Virginia Wolff wince.) But then you get into gray areas, particularly major systems that are close to but not quite at the end of their useful life, like boilers, water heaters, roofs or septic tanks that haven't failed but will likely need to be replaced in the next two or three years. Then there's usually a laundry list of more minor items, like clogged gutters, non working GFI circuits, inadequate grading away from the foundation, double tapped circuits in an electrical panel or the lack of an exterior vent for a clothes dryer. Lastly, there are often recommended upgrade items, like basement insulation, gutters or more electrical outlets in a kitchen.

The 'rough spot' usually don't result from the items generally seen as a seller responsibility, but rather from the rest. Sellers largely feel they've been beaten into submission on price, are "giving their house away". Instead of being grateful that they have a deal on their house that may have been on the market for a year or two are more, are resentful. It doesn't matter what comes up during the inspection, they're digging in their heels and aren't willing to give another inch.

Buyers, on the other hand, don't feel they're stealing the house. They feel that they're paying a fair market price in this market, and expect the same give and take over major repair items that buyers in a more robust market did. A related factor is that at moderate price points, buyers are usually younger (under 40) first time home buyers with more limited resources. When an inspection turns up a major item that will need replacement in the next year or two, like a roof (which can run upwards of $6,000), it causes them concern because they didn't anticipate or budget for that kind of major outlay when they made their offer. In a lot of cases, they just don't have it.

As a result, we can end up in a stalemate between buyers and sellers at the inspection point. Sometimes it's just not possible to break that stalemate. I had a situation a few months ago where the buyers and sellers developed such animosity towards each other over what amounted to a few thousand dollars in repair requests (on a house with a deal price upwards of $350K), that they buyers just walked.

Some of the responsibility for these stalemates or deal failrures does rest on us, the Realtors, for not setting expectations. On the seller side, the agent should make sure that the seller leaves a little on the table when agreeing to a price. If their 'bottom line' doesn't have some give in it for inspection concessions, say 2% of the asking price, the deal could fall apart. Buyers probably need to be better counseled that they're buying a 'used' house, and should be prepared, when making their offer, to anticipate 2% of the purchase price in 'deferred maintenance' over the next year or two. That would give us a 4% spread to work with, or $10,000 on a $250,000 house. Anything that comes up during inspection that would be way outside of that cushion would be something that needs to be addressed, particularly if it's a major systems issue that was not disclosed by the seller prior to the buyers making an offer.

On both sides, the agents involved need to anticipate the inspection earlier in the process, and not have our head in the sand that there won't be a round of post inspection negotiations.