Sullivan County Real Estate

Current Market Conditions Posted With August Sales Data

I just posted my latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate with sales data through August, 2011. There are a few surprises. Sales volume of single family homes for the 3 month period ending Aug. 31, 2011 held steady over the same period a year earlier (136 sales this year versus 133 in 2010) as did the median sales price, at $140,000. The average sales price was actually up about 10% from the same period a year earlier, and even adjusting out for one $1.2M sale at the Chapin Estate, the average was up 5.5%.

The most interesting thing, though, is that since the beginning of August the average asking price has fallen 3.4%, which is validating what I've been seeing for the last month or so, that sellers have been cutting asking prices. I've been waiting for months to see some noticeable drop in the average asking price to indicate that at least some sellers are facing up to the reality of the current market.

Take a look at the latest Market Conditions Report and then drop on back here to share your comments.

Current Favorites Under $400K

In a recent post about "The Competition", I commented that there are a thousand houses on market, but probably less than a couple of hundred with good second home appeal, and of those, only a few dozen probably fell into the 'great deal' category. A reader posted a comment asking if I could post up the houses I thought were good deals. I don't want to post my whole list of deal picks because it's a long list. And for some houses, from the listing itself they won't appear like good deals, because they may have high asking prices. But for some of those, I've gotten indications that there's a deal to be made. And for some others, I have clients interested in them, and as a buyer agent, don't want to create any buyer competition for them.

But I've pulled together 16 houses houses that I like right now. Not all of them are magazine ready. Some need work. But they're interesting, and pretty well priced or with a deal to be made. I also capped out here at $399,000. There are some great deal houses on the market at higher prices, but I didn't go into the higher price ranges because most of the folks I'm talking with are sticking to more modest price points.

To look at the individual properties in this group, you can click on a house as it cycles through the slideshow. Or click through here to see all of them together, with additional details,

The Competition

I've been slammed busy for the past month showing property (with the exception of the Irene weekend.) But the game has changed, subtly but noticeably. Almost everyone I've been out with is casting a wide net, with Sullivan County just one stop on their upstate country house shopping tour. Buyers aren't just looking in Sullivan, but also in Ulster, Delaware and Columbia, Pike County in PA and a few as far as the Berkshires.

Buyers are definitely on the hunt for 'the deal'. And in every one of these areas, there are a handful of great deals — houses where the owner has thrown in the towel and aggressively priced their house to move it. But there aren't a lot. Here in Sullivan County, there are roughly a thousand houses on the market. Of those, there are about 200 that I would consider as having 'second home appeal' across all segments. And of that group, there are only a few dozen that fall into that 'great deal' category. I assume the situation is similar in the other areas. Lots of houses on the market with a small subset actually having appeal, and an even smaller subset of those falling into the great deal range.

That doesn't leave a lot of arrows in my quiver to battle for buyers against the other areas. Given the limited amount of appealing inventory at a great deal price, it's the luck of the draw whether the right house at the right price is available when a buyer is cycling through Sullivan. Many of them, on the grand tour for the upstate deal, only cycle through each area once, so we may have just one shot to grab their attention.

Lately I've been much more direct with listing agents about showing feedback, particularly regarding price. I get a lot of push back. I often hear a lot of justification for the price — the property has a special this or that, the owners put a lot of money into this or that renovation, etc. etc. etc. But at the end of the day it doesn't matter all that much. The house is in competition with better deals. Listing agents almost always ask me where I think it should be priced, and my number is usually way below what they want to hear.

Listing agents often have a narrow view of the market, because they generally focus on a small geographic area. Many also don't work with buyers beyond their area of focus, so they don't have a broad perspective about what their listings are competing against. The situation is compounded even further because listings in Sullivan are also competing against listings in other counties.

A few months ago, it was starting to look like 'deal shopping' was taking a back seat to 'house shopping', and we were returning to a more normal market where the driver on the buyer side was shifting back to falling in love with a house. But that changed over the summer, and buyers are back to deal shopping mode. Like it or not, it's a reality we have to adjust to.