Current Market Conditions Report with November Data

I just posted my latest Current Market Conditions Report for Sullivan County Real Estate with sales data through Nov. 2011. Sales volume is holding steady, about on par with the previous month and previous yewar. Sales prices have been holding steady as well, with the average sales price up some over last year, while the median sales price is down a bit. All in all, it's a reasonably good picture given the lackluster economy. True, we're nowhere near the robust sales volume we saw during the peak of the market (annual sales are running about 500 units, compared to between 700 and 800 at the peak). Earlier in the year, market bears visiting this site were predicting that sales and prices would fall of the cliff, but that hasn't happened, taking a look at the year over year numbers.

Check out the latest Market Conditions Report and then drop on back here to share your thoughts on what's happening in the real estate market here.

Comments

[George Fanfare]

Case - Shiller came out earlier today.

"5 year home price downtrend." ~ Shiller (Yale U.)

From peak mid to late 2006 to now, prices are off by 33%.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/12/27/nasty-case-shiller-shows-home-prices-barely-off-their-crisis-lows/

http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----

Video with Prof. Shiller:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psx3rhX3euc

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Still doesn't make you feel confident if you purchased in the last six years and have debt service of montly payments and higher New York taxes with the bogeyman of Mr. Marcellus Shale.

[Ken]

Prior to the recent times of wreckless loans and handing off mortgages to the day traders market, there was a rule of thumb that you can afford a house that's worth approximately 3 times your annual income. The question is a simple one:

If you had to buy your house today would you be able to afford it?

When the majority of home owners answer "Yes" to that question, then you'll know the housing market has stabilized. It still has a ways to go which should not be a real shock to anyone. The sky is not falling. It's just getting back to where it should have been all along.

[ar]

That's an understatement, George Fanfare. If you bought in the last six years and have been paying interest on the money you borrowed to do it, you have obliterated a lot of wealth.

[Ken]

From the perspective of the buyer, that would be correct. From the perspective of the seller, they probably didn't obliterate much wealth in the transaction. Guess it just depends how you look at it. Bottom line is a housing market built on paper wealth where most cannot afford what they "own" is not sustainable. These things have a natural way of working themselves out.